Early NFL week 4 thoughts

[LaggyTaggy]

njador, - its a combination of things
1)brunnell hasnt proven hes in sync w/the medium to deep range ball - meaning jacksonville is going to be very comfortable crowding hte box to start - and theyre front 7 is pretty nasty
- brunnel isnt very mobile - and the jax D is VERY good vs the run, and also very good at putting up the pressure - and to this point the skins line hasnt played fluidly in their blocking schemes - they allowing multiple sacks vs good teams and are generally underperforming - i hope brunnel doesnt get broken into 2 pieces, if the skins dont block better than they have all season theyre in trouble
-i dont see the skins being able to stretch the field out and get the type of run attack & short passing game they had last week (duh)
-i think this is a game of field position, and those games i expect to be won in the range of 3 to 7 points, and if i'm taking jacksonville, i dont think it'd be a bad bet to take at +3, but itd obviously be WAY better at +2.5
-shawn springs is still questionable - anyone know if hes supposed to play or not?? I think the sheer size of the jax WO's is a problem for the skins is going to be wright/rumph, which are also underperforming, i think jax will be comfortable picking the skins apart at 3-5 yards a play, and that they wont need to be able to stretch the field out to have success on offense, which is exactly what the skins will have to do (and i dont think will). If the skins are to win i would hope to see them throw the deep ball on one of the first two possessions
- a counterpoint to my thoughts are that i dont think the skins will roll over like they did vs dallas and they are getting better as a team, but i dont think theyre there yet
-I think this is an ugly matchup for the skins
-the mass production of penalties that the skins have going is especially horrible in a field position war
If the skins can force the jax safetys back they have the potential to win, if they can't do that i don't think they can win (along w/good blocking to allow this on the 0-line)

[checkmate36]

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I used Carolina with:
Atlanta -1
Kansas City -1
Washington +8.5
Minnesota +7.5 (6.5 pt 11/10 @ 5Dimes)

Baltimore also fits here but since I already bet San Diego I may not play them.

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I put Carolina together with KC-1.

GL

[wickywahwah]

Guys, here is the real lock of the week:

(6.5pt teaser)
COLTS -2.5
CHIEFS -1

Good luck.

[20Five]

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I just put a unit on the under for Atlanta/Arizona next week at 40 before it moves any more. Leinart's nowhere near ready to be an NFL QB (he's starting next week if you missed it), and here are the totals for Atlanta's first three games: 26, 17, 26. I kind of feel like I should put more down, but I mainly bet college games, and I'm not very confident on the NFL.

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Leinarts def not the starter at this point correct?

gl

[Lori]

Yahoo notes.

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Sep 27 Darren Urban, of the East Valley Tribune, reports Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green said Wednesday, Sept. 27, QB Kurt Warner will be the team's long-term answer at the quarterback position. Green added he does not plan to reevaluate the position on a weekly basis.


Sep 26 Contrary to previous reports, Warner (possible hand injury) will start Sunday's game against the Falcons, head coach Dennis Green told the team's official site.
Recommendation: "Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do,” said Green. “However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We’re disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us.” Warner's performance on Sunday will go a long way in determining whether he keeps the job, or if the coaching staff turns the offense over to Matt Leinart.





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Lori

[NajdorfDefense]

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Guys, here is the real lock of the week:
(6.5pt teaser)
COLTS -2.5
CHIEFS -1
Good luck.

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Herm was sit and sit on the ball and win by 1 just to screw you up.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Does anybody else think Carolina -8 looks crazy.

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I'm as big of a Panther fan as there is and I'm betting against them. Saints +7.5, what am I missing? Do the books really think there will be that big of a letdown?

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I dunno, but unlike Vick, Delhomme can throw the ball and unlike Jenkins, Smith can get open and unlike Lelie, Keyshawn can hold onto the ball. Alge dropped like 34 passes last night when I stopped counting.

edit: I got NO +8.5 last night

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Sheppard might play, so I took U49 as well. Gogo 34-13 final.

[GiftGiver]

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-I agree w/naders thoughts on the over on GB/Phil i really dug that when it was at its lowest, i'm not sure how i feel about it now, i put it in a teaser on the over along w/bringing dallas down to +2.5.

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- i'm curious why people havent been teasing the Under on the ravens/chargers w/the 2 best run D's, a relatively untested QB in rivers vs a solid D... offensive issues from balt, keenan mcardell... & the over on the gb/phil

-i'm new to this,
collective critiscm, thoughts, commentary, would be great

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Generally it is not a good idea to tease totals. To break even on a teaser at +100 you need two bets that win 70.7% of the time. There is no range of numbers that you can capture with a teaser that will change your expectation from winning roughly 50% of the time to winning 70% of the time.

In other words, there does not exist a 6 point range into which NFL totals land 20% of the time. Whereas if you capture key numbers of the point spread like 3 through 7 (as has been noted ad nauseum on this board) you can raise your winning expectation by more than 20%.



Also regarding Washington and Jacksonville: Teams that are 0-2 and win their third game experience a huge emotional lift in week 4 knowing that just one more win gets them back to .500. Whereas if they had lost their 3 game the season is basically over. Washington lost their first 2 games and won last week. I expect to see inspired play from Washington.

[NajdorfDefense]

mansioon 1 unite Indy -7.5
1 unit SD even.

[NajdorfDefense]

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mansioon 1 unite Indy -7.5
1 unit SD even.

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1-3 on games this week, minus 2.1 units, have middle on tonite's total 45.5-49.

Naj

ps took Bearz late yesterday, but unposted so uncounted.