Overpair on Paired board - RANT

[MATT111]

@ ILP:
By saying your numbers arent accurate I meant he doen`t have a 9 here less than 20% of the time and 3-street-bluffs less than 20% of the time.
I am sure you`ll figure out the correct play as soon as you have successive experience at the tables. Your fundamental understanding of the game is - as you could prove in many of your posts - excellent right now.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
@ ILP:
By saying your numbers arent accurate I meant he doen`t have a 9 here less than 20% of the time and 3-street-bluffs less than 20% of the time.
I am sure you`ll figure out the correct play as soon as you have successive experience at the tables. Your fundamental understanding of the game is - as you could prove in many of your posts - excellent right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Matt, if youre talking about the actual opponent in Mossberg's thread, I agree with you, I think the villain has 9x significantly more than 20% and I think the villain is bluffing signicicantly less than 20%. Like I said before, it appears that raising the flop is an even bigger mistake than I orginally thought. My model was designed more for an online unknown than the actual villain. If you disagree with the assumptions of my model, thats fine. You and everyone else are free to create your own mental models based on your own perceptions of these situations.

There is one thing I hope I have accomplished in this thread. I hope this thread has taught more people to get away from the rigid approach of "I have the best hand, therefore I raise!" I want people thinking along these lines "I have the best hand, what should I do to make the most money possible?" I left the "I have the best hand, therefore I raise" camp long ago. Now all I care about is making money. Its a liberating feeling.

[milesdyson]

5x, PP, A-hi: 65%
9x: 30%
OC: 5%

0.65 * 0.5
+ 0.3 * -1.0
+ 0.05 * -0.5
= 0

but these numbers are skewed toward 9x too much.

raise somewhere.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
5x, PP, A-hi: 65%
9x: 30%
OC: 5%

0.65 * 0.5
+ 0.3 * -1.0
+ 0.05 * -0.5
= 0

but these numbers are skewed toward 9x too much.

raise somewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last word freak. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Spy Dog]

I call this down against an unknown. KK is nearly the same hand as 66 in this situation and I doubt anybody would be arguing so vigorously for aggressive play with 66.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I call this down against an unknown. KK is nearly the same hand as 66 in this situation and I doubt anybody would be arguing so vigorously for aggressive play with 66.

[/ QUOTE ]

spy dog agrees with ILP. There is your answer folks, ILP is right.

And no, I'm not being an ass, or sarcastic. ILP and SD are two of the best poker minds in SSSH.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
I call this down against an unknown. KK is nearly the same hand as 66 in this situation and I doubt anybody would be arguing so vigorously for aggressive play with 66.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's nowhere near the same.

667788TTJJ is 30 combinations of extra hands you beat

Each 9-x is 8 combos, so these extra combos you beat account for 5 of his 9-x hands. (A9, K9, Q9, J9, T9). How many other playable 9s are there bro?

True

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
guru was here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Pete saw guru was here [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I like raising the flop with an overpair as I can then do it with AK and get a free turn because they won't donkify all the way forever if they know i can r4153!!!!11111!!11!!111!11!!1.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call this down against an unknown. KK is nearly the same hand as 66 in this situation and I doubt anybody would be arguing so vigorously for aggressive play with 66.

[/ QUOTE ]

spy dog agrees with ILP. There is your answer folks, ILP is right.

And no, I'm not being an ass, or sarcastic. ILP and SD are two of the best poker minds in SSSH.

[/ QUOTE ]
army of raisers has better soldiers

[elffaw]

What does Sam Jackson say?

http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/6...eson995he6.jpg