Deep KK faces massive overbet flop push...

[kaby]

this is an easy call imho

but ignoring my own opinion:

this topic is roughly 50/50 between call and fold


this should make it clear that this is a easy call

let me clarify myself:

50% of posters are consistently calling in situations like this (this isn't a standard spot vs an unknown but it still happens quite a lot), and keep calling because they see showdowns, see how much this is air instead of a hand that beats us, and know/guesstimate a call is +ev

50%* of posters just fold, never see a showdown, keep telling themselves they are correct to fold (like they do here using phares like 'dont stack off with 1 pair for 200bb')

i'd value the opinion of the guys that are actually making the calls and seeing the showdowns and know the frequency donks have air here WAY more than the opinion of the guys that fold and so should you

[TwistedEcho]

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I guarantee I'm like the biggest station in this thread so far with the exception of one or two players

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi! No chance you can out-calling station me, im a tournament donk!

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
this is an easy call imho

but ignoring my own opinion:

this topic is roughly 50/50 between call and fold


this should make it clear that this is a easy call

let me clarify myself:

50% of posters are consistently calling in situations like this (this isn't a standard spot vs an unknown but it still happens quite a lot), and keep calling because they see showdowns, see how much this is air instead of a hand that beats us, and know/guesstimate a call is +ev

50%* of posters just fold, never see a showdown, keep telling themselves they are correct to fold (like they do here using phares like 'dont stack off with 1 pair for 200bb')

i'd value the opinion of the guys that are actually making the calls and seeing the showdowns and know the frequency donks have air here WAY more than the opinion of the guys that fold and so should you

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, my WTSD for September was 29, I hardly ever fold and make tons of marginal calldowns.

For one thing, he never has air here. Even the people saying call will agree with this.

For the record, I'm not saying fold because I want to "look for a better spot." I'm saying fold because I think KK is doing very poorly against this player's range for shoving 200bbs on.

[TwistedEcho]

Also warteen, lets set up a sidebet on winrate or sth for october, i'll be willing to bet up to your bankroll.

And i promise i'll keep calling off 200bb in spots like this!!

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guarantee I'm like the biggest station in this thread so far with the exception of one or two players

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi! No chance you can out-calling station me, im a tournament donk!

[/ QUOTE ]

Pfft tourney donks are all nits. <3

[4_2_it]

kaby,

A bet of 100 bbs works just well as a push and is scarier to a good player. My experience (and I call here a decent amount) is that this spot is marginally +EV (maybe single digit bbs in the long run) yet high variance.

Now the better a read I have on villain allows me to make the right decision more often, but without a read I can't see a lot of difference in the long run between calling and folding. Now if the flop was something like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then snap calling is automatic, but this board has a B-way card and is not overly draw heavy so I'd put villain on at least an overpair.

[martijn]

FWIW I've asked 2 mid/high stakes player and both think its relative easy fold.

[Fonkey123]

[ QUOTE ]
Also warteen, lets set up a sidebet on winrate or sth for october, i'll be willing to bet up to your bankroll.

And i promise i'll keep calling off 200bb in spots like this!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, you're just a lucky fish that runs good [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

FWIW my went to showdown verges on 30

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW my went to showdown verges on 30

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[kaby]

4_2_it,

are you suggesting 55/12/x idiots think things like 'if i want to bluff him here i have to make it 100bb instead of shove because he is a good player and he knows that if he calls he might face an allin on the turn, so he'll fold most hands'

seems like giving him too much credit imho, or did i not understand you correctly?

maybe i'm a bit biased because i was in this spot like 10 times this week and was shown air (I call any hand that can't shove here hoping to be called by less air, so anything <AJ is air here imho) every time whereas i can't remember the last time i got stacked