Proposed proposition bet with Gigabet

[rvg72]

I re-ran the sim using these numbers and 15 buyins:

$10 41.4% ITM 25.5% ROI
$20 40.5% ITM 22.7% ROI
$30 39.6% ITM 20.0% ROI
$50 38.4% ITM 16.4% ROI
$100 37.5% ITM 13.6% ROI
$200 36.6% ITM 10.9% ROI

That would give him a 72% chance to succeed. If these numbers are low as was suggested in the other thread then obviously his success rate would increase a bit.

Btw, most of the busting out actually happens in the 109's and 215's.

rvg

[mlagoo]

rvg does this sim bear in mind that he has to play exactly 100 at each level and move up after the 100th SNG at each level, and cannot drop down?

just checking... that seems awfully high!

[DMACM]

[ QUOTE ]
Also are we allowed to play against him?

Do we know his screenname?

If so I think I would cover the full amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh god if I join some low limit sng and then gigabet joins and all these ringers join in....

I'd be in for 100 dollars for the hh.

[mlagoo]

i would think it makes more sense to restrict access to the account until the end of the bet. there is way too much incentive for people to join the table and play against him if they are aware of the SN he is using.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
I re-ran the sim using these numbers and 15 buyins:

$10 41.4% ITM 25.5% ROI
$20 40.5% ITM 22.7% ROI
$30 39.6% ITM 20.0% ROI
$50 38.4% ITM 16.4% ROI
$100 37.5% ITM 13.6% ROI
$200 36.6% ITM 10.9% ROI

That would give him a 72% chance to succeed. If these numbers are low as was suggested in the other thread then obviously his success rate would increase a bit.

Btw, most of the busting out actually happens in the 109's and 215's.

rvg

[/ QUOTE ]

Using those numbers here's a small chart




If he gets 50% of the ROIs you listed one bad streak could easily end it all at any level.




If anyone wants to play with the excel file, just change the ROI numbers and all the others will change appropriately - Excel File

[NiRRRRR]

im in for 100. i wouldnt mind seeing his hh's

[ilya]

Would this bet be better or worse for Gigabet if the $30s didn't exist?

[jgunnip]

Personally I think the minimum wager should be $500/person. You're getting, at a minimum, 600 hand histories and 300 at the 1K chip level, where you can analyze one of the best tournament players around.

[suzzer99]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is no way that you can give ~100 people access to his screenname during the bet and have this still be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I might not argue with this, it's not worth the $200 I offered if I can't watch Gigabet get called a donkey at the $11s in real time. If you want to say the $200 bettors get special access to the screen name, with a promise not to give it out or interfere, then I'm still in for $200.

[Eihli]

Count me in for $100