Official SB Fantasy Football League - sign up details + rules debate

[michw]

I'm curious how big of an edge you serious sports bettors think you have in a fantasy football league, if any. Say you played in a league with 9 other players who selected players based primarily on default rankings. These players would perform very little research prior to the draft and wouldn't make too many manuevers or transactions once the games started. In your estimation how often you will you win this league?

[Performify]

If all other players selected with no other research than the default rankings - and assuming from that they're casual sports fans at best, i.e. unlikely to have any info on what's going on in the NFL outside of perhaps their local team and maybe a few minutes of sportscenter a day - I'd say I'd have a 50% shot of winning the league and 80%-90% chance of placing in the top three. I'd also add +10% to both ranges if I were given the first two draft picks. SA or LJ have the possibility of pulling a team just based on the default picks. People beyond the top three have very little shot of that baring absolute luck in landing some serious midround scores by luck of the draw (if they're following default only).

With the always present possibility of a devestating injury I don't think it could be much higher than that 50% to win. But I would be a near lock to cash because I'd be able to build a lot more value in the middle and late rounds. People picking default will generally pick a lot of trash there.

[Justaguy33]

I am in for the $50

[PokaPlaya22]

I really feel that I could win in a league like that twice in every 5 years.... and depending on the format of that league I could probably make it to the playoffs or even finals almost every year. You have to understand that those rankings dont take into account all the little things that need to be looked at when drafting a team. And then there is always trading during the year... the eliminator pool is coming soon for all you fantasy lovers GambleOnUs.com

[michw]

So Performify says 50% and PokaPlaya says 40% of the time. Those estimates were much higher than I expected. I only have limited experience playing fantasy leagues and I haven't seen much correlation between football knowledge and fantasy results in the leagues I've played in. Maybe I'm not good at recognizing someones football knowledge, or maybe you guys overestimate the effect football knowledge has on fantasy results, or maybe my perception is out of whack due to my sample size of about 3.

[bills217]

For football I would guess lower than Performify or PokerPlaya, not sure of an exact #...I would agree with their #'s for baseball or basketball but football is more of a crapshoot...shorter season, less games, injuries take a bigger toll, etc.

Not to mention the whole NFL is basically a crapshoot.

[AnyAce]

The only thing I would add is that FF scoring systems play a big part in the crap shoot aspect. I have been playing for about a decade with roughly the same bunch of guys and invariably the following thing happens in any number of weeks during the season:

Team A beats Team B 100-90
Team C beats Team D 65-55

Teams A & C both get "wins" for the week and Team B has nothing to show for a strong performance. Its true that it evens out over the long run, but we have had a few years when it didnt even out over the course of the season and the "Champion" had the 3rd or 4th most points overall.

To improve the situation we upped the buy-in and reduced the year-end prizes and started giving a prize for highest score of the week each week. Not a perfect solution, as it doesnt address the problem directly, but it was the best compromise that all the owners could agree on in our league.

I proposed a system I've seen elsewhere where a team

got 2 points for a win PLUS

2 more points for being in the top third in scoring for the week

1 more pt for being in the middle third in scoring for the week

No extra points for being in the bottom third in scoring for the week.

The other owners weren't buying it, so we went the weekly prize for high score.

Looking forward to the season.
AA

[dankhank]

anything can happen in the playoffs

[faded]

put me on the list for the $50 league - where do i ship the money?

[Shoe]

I'm in for the $200 league... assuming that I am able to attend the draft.

Also, how are we paying for the league? Is their a trustworthy source we are keeping the money with?