AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in

[Butcho22]

[ QUOTE ]

The main idea behind my making this thread though is that even if pushing is slightly EV, I think this might be one of those situations where calling is better because we're better than the field. Good players that have a good stack are less apt to take small edges basically.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why didn't you just write a theory post stating why you believe flat calling in this exact situation is the best option?

You're clearly not being convinced otherwise by math...and if that not enough, nothing is.

[Dave D]

My point is that the math says its marginal to push. Other posters have agreed with this. If that's the case, then this may be a situation where its better to pass because we're better than the field. Its sort of the opposite of the theory (as I understand it) that Kill Phil is based on.

[Stumpy]

I just recalculated the chip value for today's tournament (1300 players) and after the bubble each chip is worth 0.608 cents instead of 0.6533 cents in my original calculations. This is not a major change. ITM = $48.45 = 8k chips instead of 9k.

AK,TT+ reraise that QQ+ calls is +5,450 chips.

You will bubble (12/33)*(0.69) = 25% of the time.
$48.45 * 0.25 = -$12.16 you need to make up with that extra 5.45k.
5.45k * .00608 = $33.14.
$33.14 - $12.16 = +$21 in additional profit.

For a $25 tournament, that is not marginal.


The break-even point is basically the AK,JJ+ reraise, QQ+ calls range that Black used. The push is then +$2.50. If you really believe he is reraising even tighter than that (or calling wider), pushing is bad, but I think you should fold, not call. I also think it'd take a very serious read to get his range this tight, down from what an average player's range would be. I'm not comfortable saying what average is, but maybe someone else can.

The bubble is playing a big role there though. Shoving on AK,TT+ here if only AK folds is +1k chips, but -$EV.

[TexRef]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree this looks like a typical squeeze play. I think pushing it the best option you have the most fold equity if you push allin.

[/ QUOTE ]