Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Flop

[EverettKings]

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why is a flop bet mandatory? if what was said is true, then he's most likely setting a trap for you and is going to checkraise.

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Please read all of my post. Or ask a more specific question becasue I addressed this one.

Everett


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You didn't though.

Betting here is NOT going to win the hand often.

And i'm not saying to invest all your chips when a J hits on the turn.. but it's really rare that you're ahead here i think and betting the flop is pissing away chips.


-- You think you're behind on the flop... so you invest more just to be sure? When you could improve your hand to the winning hand (or closer to it) for free.

Checking this flop is far from disastrous.

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Alright read my first post and my second. What changed between them was the read, which I'll try to explain.

We are given the read by Sossman that he likely has 22-JJ, AK/AQ here. If he were planning to take me off of the hand on the flop, he would have called preflop with a much wider range. He'd throw in all kinds of suited and connected junk, and in this case betting is bad because he makes his c/r too often. But the fact that he isn't playing all those medium trash hands is proof that he doesn't have a strong intention to move me out here with nothing. He wants to hit.

On that flop EVERY SINGLE ONE of the hands in that range is beating me. But what the hell do I care? If he's gonna fold all but the sets (and JJ) then I'm betting all day. Again, based on this read I strongly believe that he will fold AK/AQ, and 77ish type hands here. If he has one of those few hands that hit, he will not fold and for 1500 chips I get out of a pot that I'm basically drawing dead on. But most of the time I bluff him out. Same goes for the CO, who will also be unlikely to check raise you unless you're thoroughly beaten, since he's a tight player out of position. Usually he missed completely or has something mediumish like 88 or QJ, and will fold to your bet (which we want).

If you check that flop, with this read, you miss your best shot to win the pot and then one of two things happens. One, you miss the turn and almost always someone bets, be it MJ with his set or missed 66 or AK, or CO with whatever. Those hands that would have folded (along with the ones that would have called or raised) are now firing but you are done with the hand. Note that this happens the vast majority of the time, since you only pair about 15% of the time. You pick up a draw that you may or may not be able to chase another 30% ish of the time.
Case two, you hit and see a bet into you. Now you're in a marginal situation where you're navigating a minefield of reverse implied odds and not knowing if you're best. The key to this is that you

The key to this is that, because of the read from Soss, there is a strong chance (I'd say 60%) of a flop bet winning the pot. The flop is also your only real shot at the pot, since usually you're forced out of the pot on the turn and even when you aren't, your likelihood to get paid off is smaller and your likelihood to get stacked off is greater.

Everett

[NoahSD]

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Let's put it this way: I think I know where this hand is going next, and I'm gonna put the spoiler/probable correct play in white. Of course I could very well be wrong about it, but I think that reflects my reasoning.

<font color="white"> Hero checks. The turn is an ace, or maybe a jack. MJ bets into 2 people. You have two choices: call and then check or fold most rivers, or fold outright. </font>

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I really like what you've said in this thread and pretty much every comment I've ever read from you, except this one. I wish you hadn't done that. We're playing this hand in a real tournament, not in the 2+2 forums, and acknowledging that is unfair.

I think LLoyd should delete both these posts.

[Exitonly]

Wow, definitely not going to win this hand 60% here..

MJs alone won't fold 60% of the time, with the texture of that flop why wouldnt he think he's still good w/ almost all of the range you put him on? he's not only going to raise if he hits his set.

And we don't know what's going on w/ CO, but i'd assume the same goes for him.

Your chances of taking this down on the flop are under 25% i think, maybe substantially lower.

And yea, you only pair 15% of the time on the turn, but like 40% of the time you're going to pick up a draw that you could play/semi bluff with.. I'm not saying that a semi bluff should be the action, but it's possible and it's a way to win the hand.

[CardSharpCook]

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CSC,

I'm curious about your play. In a given tournament, how often will you make this play? I think this is a fairly common situation. How often does it work? When you get called, what are you usually getting called with?

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Mr. Moo, I rarely pull this kind of move in an online tourney In which I have no FE vs QJ and little vs JT. However, in a live tourney, it usually comes up about once a tourney. It is that one hand where the board is just so and the opponent is correct. However, later I can usually point to that one hand as being a key turning point in my tourney run. And yes, I've run head-long into some pretty good hands. At the WSOP with 150 left of 1200, my 82o fizzled against ATo on a AQT board sending me home wondering wtf I was thinking. (however, I stand by that play)

CSC

[m1illion]

Bet 1200.
Try to win the pot right here.
Deny odds to draws.
Any call is A HUGE RED FLAG.


follow up after reading some replies.

Checking does exactly what for you here? Does it help define your hand? Will it win you the pot? Does it put pressure on your opponents?
With all this talk of aggressiveness it seems a pretty weak option to me. If you are honestly afraid of a check raise bet 800. But if you raised and then bet 1200 why can't you have pocket 10's or 9's or AT? Assuming neither one of your opponents has them they have to consider it but only if you make them by betting.
Those who say the free card might give them a draw should consider that the same card could complete a draw for your opponents.

note to adanthar: I don't doubt you when you say you have no knowledge of this hand but I must tell you that my first thought after reading your first reply in this thread was that you indeed knew everything about this hand. You're just too certain that betting is wrong here when all evidence point the other way.


A final thought, 800 might better represent 99 or TT but I've already put 1200 in the pot.

[adanthar]

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I really like what you've said in this thread and pretty much every comment I've ever read from you, except this one. I wish you hadn't done that. We're playing this hand in a real tournament, not in the 2+2 forums, and acknowledging that is unfair.

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I'm admittedly kinda sleepy right now but I'm not sure what your objection is...FWIW, I have no advance knowledge of how this hand turns out and what I was responding to in that post was the legitimate question "but what if you check, hit on the turn [especially an ace] and now wind up facing what seems to be a value bet?" I'm not trying to show off my brilliant prediction powers or anything; that's just the toughest spot that you're ever gonna see in a hand like this and you must know what to do there when you do check behind. I have a more detailed answer to that than what I put in the spoiler, but I'll save it for the next thread.

FWIW, with the revised read on MJ, EverettKings has a major point in that if you are interested in this pot at all you have to bet it. Your hand beats exactly zero hands in MJ's range right now, and that makes it a fairly straightforward bluff. I'm not convinced, however, that it's a profitable one, but it's 4 AM so I'll figure that out tomorrow.

[Exitonly]

I think it would be an easier bet if you had AKs...

but w/ AJc you would like to see that turn beccause they can give you ways to win the hand.. not necesarily ways that you're going to chase, but opportunities nonetheless.

While betting gives you a chance at winning, what % of the time do you guys think it's successful? Given that range, i don't think MJ think he's beat already and who knows about CO.

i think it's 20% or below.

Which would not be profitable. (well it depends on the ratio of checkraises:calls, and your win% with the turn that will likely improve you, and if it's just a call you'll likely see a river for free too)

[PlayingInPS]

It will ALL depend on my history with these players, but I'm betting about 700. I don't expect them to fold for 700, and they know that so they might fold anyways. I'm not gonna bet high because the chances of a large bet succeeding is low enough to say that I may even have a better chance betting 700. If I get checkraised then I'm folding, but at least they'll play back at me the next time when I actually do have a hand in that kind of board. My 700 bet only needs to succeed in driving them out approximately once in three times. One of those three times in a similar situation I'm actually going to have a hand, so it doesn't matter whether they c-r, call, or fold because chances are I'm gonna come out ahead. All of this is only possible because I have position.

The only small downside to this is that if they call, I have to bet hard on the turn no matter what comes out to represent a real monster. And it's not even that much of a downside because they could fall for it and my hand can still win. A club could also come on the turn which makes my bet really scary since I can represent shutting down a flush draw when I'm actually the one drawing to it. Whatever the case, they have a much harder decision than mine. By the way, this is only possible because I have position.

Edit: If they bet before me on the turn and I completely missed it, then I'm folding.

The thing is, I'm perfectly fine with folding to a c-r here. The reason is because I'm likely folding to a c-r if an ace or a jack comes out anyways. Aces with jack kicker is not nice enough to very confidently call a c-r for a big chunk of my stack, and top pair with 9-10-J on the board is not nice either. Even if I check and call the hand down and an ace comes out I can still lose, same with jacks. Betting 700 on the flop can save you the trouble of making many bad calls afterwards. The other guys are probably not going to bet a lot if they have an ace better than yours and an ace came out (which is any ace higher than an eight at this moment) since you represented a weak holding on the flop, in which case you can keep your losses to a minimum. Just be sure not to bet or raise when an ace or jack comes out because your hand is not that great. Did I mention that all of this is only possible because I have position?

[schwah]

check

[grandgnu]

Your best opportunity to win the hand is RIGHT NOW.

Your best opportunity to avoid losing large amounts of your stack on later streets is RIGHT NOW.

MJ in the small blind is not going to check-raise you with another player left to act, without a very strong hand, out of position.

By betting now, we find out just how strong both of our opponents are. If either of them calls or raises, we can avoid losing a larger portion of our stack on later streets. Essentially, I'm investing 1000-1200 on a continuation bet to try and win the 2K pot, but I'm also doing it to SAVE chips on later streets.

If you just check and you hit a Jack or Ace on the turn, how can you know it's any good? Especially if your opponents come out betting into you. Now you have no idea if they have a legit hand or just sense weakness. And if they did hit a monster on the flop, or hit their draw on the free turn card that checking gives them, then you might spend a LOT more than the 1,000-1,200 chips you pushed out on the flop.

You have position, you have momentum, take advantage of it.