PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 1)

[Assani Fisher]

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NO, SEA aren't close to those spots, wtf?

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Yeah, I believe that Sea isn't even close to being a #1, dunno why Assani and nation have them that high. I think Chicago, Carolina, NO,Seattle, Dallas are pretty good top 5.

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I don't have them that high in my power rankings. I have them that high in my bet offer regarding which seed I believed they would end up with. I think that of all of the top tier NFC teams, they by far have the easiest division. Therefore if I was having a bet and wanted a team that I was most confident would be at least near #1, I'd go with them.

I posted my power rankings in a different thread and Seattle is nowhere near #1 in the NFC there.

[Assani Fisher]

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I'm new to the Sporting Events forum, is Vyse always this bad of a poster or is he just having a bad week?

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post11067161

I blocked him a while ago, and things have been much better ever since. Just click on his name and then click "ignore this user."

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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yeah, they have an rss feed. If you use Firefox and go to the main page look in your address bar and click on the orange square at the very end of the bar.

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Jack I like the site but some things are really wonky. pls to be taking my complaints/suggestions to mgmt!

1. rss feed should be easier to find
2. the forum should have more general discussion (I see only "in-game" + "fantasy" + "pfp" threads?
3. the right hand section with article links should be clearer wrt to FO original content and everything else. just by glancing at the site it's hard to tell what the FO content is. and in general, the organization of the content is not ideal..it's stats mixed up with regular columns mixed up with other content.

I guess my general comment is that until you are familiar with the site, it's hard to find the info you're looking for.

[CieloAzor]

How can you say we know for sure that NO's projection is a blunder? Did they do anything to distinguish themselves on Thursday night?

[Assani Fisher]

Ok. Please go ahead and try to make a rational argument that N.O. is only the 14th best team in the NFC.

[PokerFink]

vixticator,

I don't post these rankings as an end-all be-all ranking system. It's just a catalyst to generate discussion about the NFC. I think this thread gets more responses each week than a thread that simply says "talk about the NFC - go!" Plus, I enjoy writing them and people enjoy reading them.

I wish we would get some more detailed discussion. It would be great if more posters would write "Dallas is ranked too low because of XYZ" and actually gave some real evidence. Instead of the usual, "Dallas #9? You retard!"

[Assani Fisher]

PF, I understand what you're saying, but since you're the one who has Dallas ranked much differently than the concensus don't you think that ITS ON YOU to prove why?


You said:

Tony Romo (15/24-345-4-1) had plenty of time to throw, and looked extremely sharp in picking apart the new but unimproved New York secondary. Next week we will see what he can do against an NFL-caliber defensive line. But despite Wade Phillips’ aggressive scheme, the Dallas defensive front generated very little pass rush of their own against a mediocre New York offensive line, allowing Eli to nearly match Romo in this shootout. Roy Williams was a few steps behind Burress on the long touchdowns (as usual) although it’s impossible to tell from TV whether he was actually responsible for deep coverage. And finally, Marion Barber III was clearly better than Julius Jones last year, and looked better than him again tonight. Why does Jones get the bulk of the carries? NEXT: @ Miami.



So basically your entire points are that they didn't have a good pass rush and Roy Williams was outplayed by Burress? I think that if you want to generate interesting discussion, you have to give us more to start with.




You asked for reasons why I think they should be higher than 9. Here you go:

They were undoubtedly a top 6 team last year, and some would argue that they just got unlucky against Seattle in the playoffs. They don't seem to have gotten much worse in any major way. Romo should only improve in his second year as the starter. They had the #6 offense and #12 defense last year....not bad at all.

[vixticator]

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vixticator,

I don't post these rankings as an end-all be-all ranking system. It's just a catalyst to generate discussion about the NFC. I think this thread gets more responses each week than a thread that simply says "talk about the NFC - go!" Plus, I enjoy writing them and people enjoy reading them.


[/ QUOTE ]Lists as catalyst for discussion are good. It's just a little disappointing how often people just respond about rankings, nitpicking about a spot here and there. Been some good discussion though. The order is obv less relevent than talking about the past week's games.

[PokerFink]

Re: Dallas

Here are the points I've given in my two rankings:

1) Dallas was very hot in the middle of the season last year, but then collapsed down the stretch. According to DVOA, they were significantly below average in three of their last six games (losses to the Saints, Eagles and Lions) and merely league average in the other three. So which team will the 2007 Cowboys resemble more? Probably the latter.

2) Romo, like the team, was very hot in his first few starts and then cooled considerably as teams got more prepared for him. He's an above average starter but nothing special. But people remember that sick streak he had and think he's great. If his hot start had been weeks 1-5 and then he was mediocre the rest of the year, public opinion on him would be like, well, Rex Grossman did exactly that.

3) Difficult schedule. Second hardest in the NFC.

4) Offensive line started the same five guys in every game last year, which is unlikely to happen again. In general the team had very few injuries.

5) Third down rebound effect. Dallas was much better offensively on third down (2nd in the NFL) than on first and second down. This is a very strong indicator for decline the following year - it's one of the strongest indicators that FO has discovered. The reason is that over time your third down offense is going to be about the same as the other two downs. But over one year, if you perform better on third down due to variance/small sample size, your offense will recieve a huge boost because third down is so important.

The same rebound effect applies for defenses. Not the Dallas defense, just in general I mean. It also works the other way, if you perform worse on third down than first and second, you will likely rebound and do better overall the following year.

6) Offense looked great this past week against a terrible New York defense, but the defense looked rather bad and couldn't get a pass rush.

[tdarko]

I didn't read all of the comments but Philly, Wash, and especially GB and SF. Minn last year had a good defense--the best in the NFL at stopping the run and top 10 overall but couldn't move the chains which equaled an average at best season. After week 1 all you can go by is what you watch and what I saw was a lot of what Minn looked like last year--this team isn't one of the best teams in the NFC, if they are the NFC is the softest it has been in its history. SF was taken to the brink by Arizona and looked terrible the entire night...seems a little high but I do think SF will be ok this year.

On to the East. I agree that Philly is a good team in the East but #2 after Week 1 is overrating them IMO but I also didn't think they were the best team in the East before the season started either and I believe you did. Putting them ahead of Dallas is fine but #2 doesn't make sense to me, I am a Cowboy fan but I also understand why Philly is ahead of them on a ton of lists.

Dallas does have some defensive issues right now, they really are banged up which puts them in some schemes that really can show their holes. The biggest being Newman, without their lockdown corner it forces Roy Williams into coverage and we all know how bad he is in coverage whereas with Newman there he can play close to the line. It is the rare case where the corner makes the safety better instead of the other way around (see the Colts for the reverse effect a la Bob Sanders). Next, Ellis is out which is a big loss but an even bigger loss early in the Giants game was losing Jason Ferguson who is the nucleus of that defensive line--he is out for the season.

Even with those defensive woes in the first game the Giants DO have some offensive weapons so it isn't like Tampa Bay ran up the board on them. Sure Dallas won't score at will like that probably ever again this season--since week 9 of last season the Giants have been the worst defensive team in the NFL--but that doesn't mean they aren't explosive...they were the 4th best offense in the NFL last season and that was with Bledsoe mucking it up for the first few games and with Romo's rookie introduction. Who knows maybe they will be even better this year on that side of the ball?

Also, I am hearing on the radio that Barber could be getting more carries this week. I do think that the overwhelming man-crushes on Barber over Julius is a little unfair though--don't get me wrong Barber is a bench back on my fantasy team but I think a lot of the comparisons made between the two are ridiculous.