The $1 Billion Dollar - 700 Mile fence on the Mexican Border and more

[Felix_Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
A 2000 mile border wall will stop ROUGHLY 98%+ of illegals at the southern border.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought the adjective "roughly" would communicate the 98% was strictly an estimate.
Lets be logical, the facts are (1)my name is on this post and (2)I did not cite another source for this estimate. I thought it would be self evident to even to a slack-jawed-knuckle-dragging-nitwit that this figure was my own personal opinion of a border wall's success... If you disagree with 98%, feel free to express your own estimates.

[BCPVP]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought the adjective "roughly" would communicate the 98% was strictly an estimate.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this thread teaches you nothing else, let it teach you that you suck at estimating.

[acidca]

Felix_Nietsche, I feel it is a mistake to compare the berlin wall to a wall along the southern border of the US. Or maybe fitting, but in a different way.

Anyway, I think that your views on immigration are based on some inherently flawed assumptions. Try to ignore the insults and personal attacks in some of the less mature posters' replies and focus on the real arguments made by those who took the time to reply to you seriously. I beleive you will find them to be intelligent replies and worthy of some attention, and they may help you to see why you have been misled in to some extent regarding this issue.

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I read a post below where you asserted 25% of prisoners are illegal and then praised the person who corected your post for disputing your % with actual statisties.

[/ QUOTE ]
My memory was faulty. It is my mistake. I can admit when I'm wrong and I praised the poster for supporting his assertions with a link. This alone made him unique from most posters on this forum who spout opinions without backing these opinions up with supporting facts and arguments. If you have read my posts before, you will know that I often back up my assertions with some type of evidence be it historical examples and actual stats... I got lazy on that particular post and I did not double-check that number on the net...

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry but you don't get to set the default postion and make someone prove you wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
In any freshman logic course, you learn it is impossible to disprove a negative.
If someone asks you why you like to beat up women, the burden of proof is to for THEM to prove that you beat women. Not for you to prove that you do not. This is BASIC LOGIC. If you can't understand this simple concept then I don't know if it is possible to reason with you. I was accused of supporting a border wall because I don't like "brown people". It was a cheap shot and I called him on it. In logic, this is called an "ad hominem" attack.

[ QUOTE ]
I would appreciate it if you either refrained from using %'s or clearly stated that it is your personal estimate when doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]
No....I'm not going to write my posts as if it were a legal document with disclaimers, footnotes, and subclauses.... This is a poker forum not a court-of-law. Assume my numbers to be my own personal estimates unless I provide links to support these numbers from another source. Politics is about peoples opinions. I am entitled to my opinions and writing posts in formats that you approve of is not a requirement.
When I write posts, I am usually playing four poker games games, consulting poker tracker, and doing searches on the net. If I make mistakes in spelling or I fail to make my points clear, then I will correct them. I admited my mistake on the 25% figure. My memory was faulty. This may be hard to believe but I'm not trying to be a professional pundit.

As for the border wall, I have cited the success of the Berlin wall which was designed to keep roughly 15 million East Germans from fleeing communism. I use this as an historical example to show that a border wall along the southern border would have the same success..... If you disagree fine. It makes no difference to me...... My life does not revolve around pleasing people in the 2+2 Politics forum....

[/ QUOTE ]

In Germany was it just a wall with camera's or were there men with guns posted along the wall? There may be similarities between the planned wall along the mexican/us border and the e/w german border and there may be a lot of dissimilarities. How much do you know about these sim/dissimilarities? Why should I beleive that the us wall will have anything in common with the german wall?

And your comment about me saying you don't get to take the default postion is not relevant. If everyone just throws statistical comments around with no basis in fact the discussion is rather silly.

Do you understand what I mean by a 'default postion'? What I mean is you assume you are right and someone has to 'prove' you wrong. Well if i assume i am right and make you prove me wrong and you assume you are right and make me prove you wrong, how is there productive discussion?

If your not going to put effort into discussing things reaonably (which i think you did do in this follow up post but your assumptions about my comment around default postion is misguided) then i am going to put you on ignore.

It is foolish IMO to discuss politics with someone who assumes they are correct until proven wrong and thinks that is a reasonable position to take.

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A 2000 mile border wall will stop ROUGHLY 98%+ of illegals at the southern border.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought the adjective "roughly" would communicate the 98% was strictly an estimate.
Lets be logical, the facts are (1)my name is on this post and (2)I did not cite another source for this estimate. I thought it would be self evident to even to a slack-jawed-knuckle-dragging-nitwit that this figure was my own personal opinion of a border wall's success... If you disagree with 98%, feel free to express your own estimates.

[/ QUOTE ]

my estimate is that it will increase the income of the cyote's by 300% per annum after the wall is built and 75% of those intending to enter the us will do so whether that be by land or sea.

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A 2000 mile border wall will stop ROUGHLY 98%+ of illegals at the southern border.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought the adjective "roughly" would communicate the 98% was strictly an estimate.
Lets be logical, the facts are (1)my name is on this post and (2)I did not cite another source for this estimate. I thought it would be self evident to even to a slack-jawed-knuckle-dragging-nitwit that this figure was my own personal opinion of a border wall's success... If you disagree with 98%, feel free to express your own estimates.

[/ QUOTE ]

my estimate is that it will increase the income of the cyote's by 300% per annum after the wall is built and 75% of those intending to enter the us will do so whether that be by land or sea.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you disagree with these estimates of mine provide your own.... and then we can go back and forth continuing to pull estimates out our a55es. How will that in any way be a reasonable discussion?

[Felix_Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
Why should I beleive that the us wall will have anything in common with the german wall?

[/ QUOTE ]
We don't know. At this point it is pure speculation on how successful a border wall will be. If a Ivy-League PhD professor received a $4.5m grant to study the success of a US border wall his results would be......mere speculation. My speculation is much more cost effective.....

I offerred the Berlin Wall as an historical example that walls can be successful in keeping people from crossing borders. With the Berlin Wall, sometimes sysmpathetic guards would allow people to escape into West Berlin. I'm sure there will be sympathetic border agents that will allow illegals to cross into the USA.

[ QUOTE ]
If everyone just throws statistical comments around with no basis in fact the discussion is rather silly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your confusing the term 'statistics' with the term 'estimate'. I am confident that I have taken more college course in Statistics than most people on this forum. Also, I am entitled to my opinions on the effectiveness of a 2000 mile border wall. You disagree with my estimate of 98%. Fine.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand what I mean by a 'default postion'? What I mean is you assume you are right and someone has to 'prove' you wrong. Well if i assume i am right and make you prove me wrong and you assume you are right and make me prove you wrong, how is there productive discussion?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm confident in my beliefs. If someone disagrees then let them make a counter argument. Furthermore, let them support that counter argument with examples, stats, and other forms of evidence. I offerred the example of the Berlin Wall as EMPIRICAL evidence that a 2000 mile border wall would be quite successful.
I am *NOT* sure how successful a 700 mile border wall will be.

[Felix_Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
If this thread teaches you nothing else, let it teach you that you suck at estimating.

[/ QUOTE ]
Feel free to express you estimate of the success of a 2000 mile border wall.

[Felix_Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
my estimate is that it will increase the income of the cyote's by 300% per annum after the wall is built and 75% of those intending to enter the us will do so whether that be by land or sea.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree the Coyote fees would increase. But could the average Mexican afford a 300% increase? I have my doubts. My brother-in-law from Brazil said that many Brazilians try to save money so they can afford to fly to Mexico and hire a coyote. Saving this much money was difficult. A 300% increase in fees would stop many people from even trying to come to the USA.

[ QUOTE ]
If you disagree with these estimates of mine provide your own.... and then we can go back and forth continuing to pull estimates out our a55es. How will that in any way be a reasonable discussion?

[/ QUOTE ]
99% of all political discussions are opinion.
What separates people are some backed their assertions with evidence and some do not. Empirical/historical evidence is better than no evidence.....

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my estimate is that it will increase the income of the cyote's by 300% per annum after the wall is built and 75% of those intending to enter the us will do so whether that be by land or sea.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree the Coyote fees would increase. But could the average Mexican afford a 300% increase? I have my doubts. My brother-in-law from Brazil said that many Brazilians try to save money so they can afford to fly to Mexico and hire a coyote. Saving this much money was difficult. A 300% increase in fees would stop many people from even trying to come to the USA.

[ QUOTE ]
If you disagree with these estimates of mine provide your own.... and then we can go back and forth continuing to pull estimates out our a55es. How will that in any way be a reasonable discussion?

[/ QUOTE ]
99% of all political discussions are opinion.
What separates people are some backed their assertions with evidence and some do not. Empirical/historical evidence is better than no evidence.....

[/ QUOTE ]

I happen to know many (dozens) of illegal immigrants from Brazil. My understanding is the standard fee is 10K to be smuggled here from Brazil. It is also my understanding that almost everyone pays the fee with funds borrowed from family members already here. Then they work their a55es off and pay back the 10k and start to make a good living for themselves by continuing to work 70hrs a week or so.


Didn't the berlin wall stop people not because it was a structure that interfered with individuals walking from one location to another, but because there would be severe consequences if caught?

The consequences of 'being caught' climing our wall will remain basically the same, they get sent home, whoopie do da. If I can climb a wall and increase my inccome 10 fold I will do it. The US govt cant stop drugs. We all know that. A wall without a sensible immigration policy will not stop the flow of people unless men armed with guns ordered to shoot people on the wall are posted every 1/2 mile or so.

Welfare continues to exist, free medical care continues to exist, immigrants or not. With the wall, are our taxes going to go up or down? If up, how do we 'benefit'? And save the drivel about stopping terrorists because there are plenty of ways for a handful of people with significant funding to get here, they do not have to cross a dessert on foot.