Why one should FPS as a villager

[Stephen H]

Exhibit A: All Info game. Luckay was a wolf. Luckay went bizzarowackyland and, IIRC, CLAIMED TO BE A USEFUL SEER. Then he got himself and 2 other wolves lynched.

Therefore, this statement:

[ QUOTE ]
I know he "brings lynches" upon himself as a villager. And it's bad, yes. But you don't have to lynch when he does it, especially because he NEVER does it as a wolf. Yet you always do. Always. It's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

is FALSE. Luckay has done it as a wolf. I'm pretty sure that's not the only time, either. Think about THAT.

I'm going to lynch luckay(anyone, actually) EVERY TIME he makes a stupid, false, roleclaim. If he REALLY wants the village to win, he will STOP MAKING THEM AS A VILLAGER.

Get it yet? If villagers stopped making dumb role claims, then only wolves would be making dumb role claims (and they make plenty...seems like every other game or so some wolf screws up a fake claim). When you make a dumb role claim as a villager, you not only offer cover for the seer from the wolves, you offer cover for the wolves from the village.

STOP HIDING WOLVES.

[Neil S]

[ QUOTE ]
Exhibit A: All Info game. Luckay was a wolf. Luckay went bizzarowackyland and, IIRC, CLAIMED TO BE A USEFUL SEER. Then he got himself and 2 other wolves lynched.

[/ QUOTE ]
One and a half. I was already in trouble, but poor, poor books...

* curls up in a ball *

[soah]

Uh someone claiming to be a seer in a game where every non-wolf is a seer isn't going to create a very compelling argument for much of anything at all for you.

[LuckayLuck]

** WARNING: EXTREMELY CRAZY THEORY **

Firstly, I could get a lot of backlash for this, but I'm not afraid to for the purpose of broadening our horizons, going forwards along the Werewolf frontier! With that disclaimer out of the way;

WHAT WOULD BE BAD IN THIS SITUATION:

1. Assume that the seer will not come out (this is the most difficult assumption to make, BUT IN THIS SCENARIO, JUST ASSUME THAT THE SEER WILL NOT COME OUT. WE ARE IN HYPOTHETICAL-LAND.)

2. Assume that the second bandwagon is not the seer.

Play along with me here...

Okay, here's what happens:


At 30 minutes before lynch, let's say someone like Zurvan (who is a villager) is #1 on the bandwagon. He believes that #2 (DMK, who is 3 votes behind him, #3 is a far distance away, so #2 probably gets lynched) has a good chance of being a wolf. So, he makes the following play:


ANNOUNCMENT: I AM THE SEER.

KYRO IS A VILLAGER.
LUCKAYLUCK IS A VILLAGER.


The village quickly switches to DMK (who may or may not be a villager or wolf, it doesn't matter here.)


Over the night: Wolves eat Zurvan if he was right (because Zurvan would never fake seer), or don't eat Zurvan if he was wrong.

In the morning, Zurvan announces: "I'm not really the seer." What happens then? We probably lynch Zurvan. However, then, we have ADDITIONAL information - one of LuckayLuck or Kyro is definitely a wolf, because otherwise Zurvan would be dead. And DMK getting lynched is no big deal since if he was 2nd in suspicion at that moment in time, he'd probably be lynched before must lynch anyways.


PRO if Zurvan is right: Zurvan clears two villagers, dies during the night (as somebody who originally had LOTS of suspicion, so it's like a free lynch). In addition, DMK (somebody who had LOTS of suspicion) is lynched.

PRO if Zurvan is wrong: At least one of Kyro or LuckayLuck is a wolf.

Is there anything bad with this?
Remember, we're in hypothetical land here, where we're assuming #1 and #2. I will accept answers such as "In this scenario, then fine, this is a good play, however, you cannot really assume #1 and #2."

[Stephen H]

[ QUOTE ]
(because Zurvan would never fake seer)

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you see the flaw in this whole argument right there - if you start doing these things the value dries up?

Second point - the 2nd place wagon isn't always where the votes go. They might go anywhere - if #2 is a wolf it is MORE LIKELY to get deflected to a third wagon - who doesn't have the time to defend themselves because you've taken it away from them. This is how power villagers get lynched/outted at the end of the day. They don't have time to stop it because everything changes all at once.

Reference your own "wolves working together to out the seer in a 9man turbo" strategy.

[LuckayLuck]

ok, how about like 10 minutes to night

and zurvan yells "OMG VOTE DMK"

that would work

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(because Zurvan would never fake seer)

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you see the flaw in this whole argument right there - if you start doing these things the value dries up?

[/ QUOTE ]

would you agree that it's a good tactic to make once every three months or so? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
it would, for example, be extremely powerful if these people did it:

Zurvan
Kyrosmother
VoraciousReader

[Neil S]

Yes, if you add enough assumptions, that a given villagers knows so much about the roles of the lead wagons, and how the village will respond to the announcement, you can find a scenario where the play is good.

But real villagers don't know that much unless they ARE the seer.

[LuckayLuck]

assumption 1 is not unbelievable if it's day2

assumption 2 is one of those risks, but it's risked each time you try to lynch someone, so meh

[Neil S]

Yes but if you get a villager lynched with an FPS play, the village is more likely to lynch you the next day, thus giving the wolves *two* free days.

Further, when you make an FPS play to control the lynch, you put your own individual skills over the combined ability of the village.

So it's not quite the same as just a regular group lynch.

[LuckayLuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes but if you get a villager lynched with an FPS play, the village is more likely to lynch you the next day, thus giving the wolves *two* free days.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not denying that the village lynches you tomorrow; HOWEVER, what would be the difference between (in this scenario):


DMK -> Zurvan
and
Zurvan -> ???

yes, Zurvan basically directs a DMK lynch, I guess.
However, at times, one can argue that DMK needs to be lynched by end-game anyways, and also that the value of Zurvan possibly getting nightkilled is huge (and if he doesn't get NK'd, you learn something too)