Can I win $30/hour playing 25NL?

[baltostar]

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Of course 2000 hands is more significant than 10 but in poker terms its still pretty insignificant. Certainly not enough to say if someone is a winner or loser let alone crushing the game.

After about 10k hands of NL10 I was beating it for 15PTBB/100 but then made a loss over my next 5000 hands. So do those 10k hands prove I'm crushing the game? Or do those 5k hands prove I'm a long term loser? The answer is neither!

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Another factor arguing for very large sample sizes (100K) to determine win rates is long-term fluctuations in your ability to play your A game. If you're not a machine, then complex psycho-physio-emotional cycles will occur.

I'd say you need at least 3 months of data to smooth out these trends. In my work, I typically see down weeks where I'm under-motivated, or I'm extremely tired, or have a medical problem, or something external to work is messing me up, etc. It's very noticeable in the quality and volume of my work.

Also, how does one know they can consistently play their A game on t tables h hours/week until they attempt it ?

[Johnes Benjamin]

True, being able to play your best is something people routinely underestimate in calculating WR. Staying off any tilt playing 8hrs/day is harder than anyone thinks who hasn't tried.

[jhill3535]

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True, being able to play your best is something people routinely underestimate in calculating WR. Staying off any tilt playing 8hrs/day is harder than anyone thinks who hasn't tried.

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Winrate should take all this into account. Your winrate isn't a measure of your overall best game, but how you play on average and should take into account your tendancy to tilt.

[Johnes Benjamin]

point is, your WR playing a couple hrs/day doesn't take into account the amount of tilt you'll face if you try to extend that same game over an 8/hr period.
some people overestimate how much they'd make playing fulltime by trying to apply same WR they have playing casually.

[machine]

splitting the day in 2 i find helps, i would argue 2 sessions of 4 or 4 sessions of 2 would produce a higher winrate than 1 session of 8. Also break after a real tilting beat,this helps.