Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[flight2q]

Absent making progress on pressuring Absolute, I think we're waiting on making progress on the hand histories. Adanthar is reportedly not readily available for the next 2 weeks, and N80 has quite a task to get these emailed hand histories importable into PT (player names are sometimes missing from the starting seat/stack list, actions are sometimes missing (usually all-in raises, so not too bad), actions are out of order, and the street card statements are not positioned right so can't be used to separate the actions).

Hopefully, using the emailed hand histories won't be necessary, because they have a selection bias. It would be much better if we got all the hands from someone who datamines, and separate out the dumping sessions from the rest. Then supplement this with the hand histories from some of his opponents just to see more of the opponent hole cards in case that provides useful info.

Even if we end up with a biased sample, if we get enough hands at a big winning clip with this playing style it should be enough. For limit poker hands, you can rely on the win rate and sample size combined with the penalty the player(s) are imposing on themselves by being too loose preflop. In no limit, preflop looseness is not serious, but database queries could demonstrate an uncanny handling of the large pots, that would be enough to overcome the spectre of selection bias.

Schneids started a good thread in the HS limit forum, calling into question a couple of serious plays, and a bunch of unclear plays from a small sample. But there wasn't really any coordinated followup.

[Dr. Spaceman]

To get more hand histories, can someone look at the first HH that we have and try to contact the other players who were at the table with DoubleDrag?

[highhustla]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I'll take this thread seriously for a second and ask a serious question. Please don't flame, this is a genuine question.

If, prior to his massive winning sessions (to avoid the possibility he was chip dumping), over hundreds of hands, DOUBLEDRAG played the same style of poker, 80/60ish, with the same kind of overaggro river aggression, but lost $ overall...would you still suspect him of cheating?

If the answer is yes, what would then be the basis of that suspicion?

Again, please no flames. This is a fair question, is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]

YES, obv. Jesus Christ.

The basis would be the same [censored] that's been repeated 100000000000x [censored] times.

His river aggression was't "overaggro"--it was infinite. With flawless reads.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I'll take this thread seriously for a second and ask a serious question. Please don't flame, this is a genuine question.

If, prior to his massive winning sessions (to avoid the possibility he was chip dumping), over hundreds of hands, DOUBLEDRAG played the same style of poker, 80/60ish, with the same kind of overaggro river aggression, but lost $ overall...would you still suspect him of cheating?

If the answer is yes, what would then be the basis of that suspicion?

Again, please no flames. This is a fair question, is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a fair question IFF he played that style previously.

If I recall correctly, the accounts in question were small stakes donks playing a different "style" before they jumped up in stakes, changes "styles", and started winning every hand. Then, once they were outed, they changed styles AGAIN and became very passive on the river and losing every hand.

Someone correct me if I missed any of this.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I'll take this thread seriously for a second and ask a serious question. Please don't flame, this is a genuine question.

If, prior to his massive winning sessions (to avoid the possibility he was chip dumping), over hundreds of hands, DOUBLEDRAG played the same style of poker, 80/60ish, with the same kind of overaggro river aggression, but lost $ overall...would you still suspect him of cheating?

If the answer is yes, what would then be the basis of that suspicion?

Again, please no flames. This is a fair question, is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]

i see what youre getting at. the problem is that he did not play the same style previously.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
If I recall correctly, the accounts in question were small stakes donks playing a different "style" before they jumped up in stakes, changes "styles", and started winning every hand. Then, once they were outed, they changed styles AGAIN and became very passive on the river and losing every hand.

Someone correct me if I missed any of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of these accounts were entirely off the radar/didn't exist. Others were microstakes donks. GRAYCAT, the only high stakes account in the five, played a completely different 40 VPIP, horrible losing calldown "I'm a terrible fish" limit game prior to 8/23.

[dragonystic]

[ QUOTE ]
i see what youre getting at. the problem is that he did not play the same style previously.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
GRAYCAT, the only high stakes account in the five, played a completely different 40 VPIP, horrible losing calldown "I'm a terrible fish" limit game prior to 8/23.

[/ QUOTE ]

if this is true, then i may join forces with you guys. where are the PT shots of his play prior to 8/23? (sorry if its already been posted, i just dont remember seeing it.)

in fact, in the original thread, slider mentioned playing a session with graycat months ago. (and put up a HH from 5/10/07) He stated

[ QUOTE ]
In 186 hands of HU, his River Agg was 11 at 15/30 vs. me

[/ QUOTE ]

am i missing a piece of evidence? (please no flames, i genuinely am trying to figure everything out.)

[dragonystic]

Another question for you Adanthar. At the end of the first thread, you posted a screenshot where DOUBLEDRAG played some limit. You stated:

[ QUOTE ]
I've looked at the limit sessions. He is clearly not cheating in them. They are from 9/10

[/ QUOTE ]

and yet his vpip/pfr and af look nearly identical. his river AF is smaller, but the rest looks the same. he's just not winning.

what i struggle with is figuring out how one maniacal session is not cheating and another one is. it seems to come down to how much $ he won.

although if you are indeed correct, these players played vastly different styles prior to this, then that is highly suspect. i would just like to see those data sets.

[teddyFBI]

<font color="red"> Just got off the phone with Adrian, who claims to be the senior most manager in the Absolute Security Department (upon asking to speak to his superior at the end of the conversation, he claims to report directly to the owners). He claims that the investigation is complete, and that they have cleared all accounts of any wrongdoing.

Seeing as I didn't think it would be mental-energy-efficient to get into the entire hole-card-viewing thing with him, since we only have statistical evidence (the likes of which there's no way this guy could grasp -- just trust me on this one), I decided to instead just focus on ONE part of the wrong-doing &gt;&gt; one that no security rep or investigator could plausibly deny: the chip-dumping. A reminder that THESE ARE 3 CONSECUTIVE HANDS where DOUBLEDRAG and ROMNALDO capped every street playing $200/$400 heads-up, only to have DOUBLEDRAG fold for one bet on the river. These were just 3 HHs from an entire session like this where DOUBLEDRAG allegedly dumped over $200,000. IF ANYONE HAS MORE HANDS FROM THIS SESSION PLEASE PM ME.

Anyway, Adrian (top Absolute security guy, don't forget) said that he had looked at those hands, and that although it "looked" like chip-dumping, they had determined that it was not.
</font> Sry for the red font. I needed something to indicate that this post contains actual info rather than an expose on what 2p2ers might have gimmick accounts.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

Adrian is obviously one of them.