~*~ Official NE Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (NE @ IND) 11/04/07~*~

[paperchamp]

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man bodog always has the best lines

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Only if you bet favorites more than dogs.

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Fixed.

[hedgie43]

Naj,

It's tough to resist. So...

tlt,

Rather than attacking me personally, can you explain how the score in the Patriots-Colts game is either Pats by 7+ or Colts outright 115% of the time? What percent of the time do the Pats win by less than 7? -15%?

[agencia1]

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man bodog always has the worst lines

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Only if you bet favorites more than dogs.

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yeah thats v true. and i do bet faves more than dogs.
but seems like when i do want to take the dog, they have the same line as everyone else.

[rush66]

Ask yourself why, they have the worse number for games when the public is all over the favorite and youll take a step in the right direction. BTW, I dont think this game applies, b/c NE is a mutant team, you cant apply anything to them. At least thus far this season.

[KLJ]

why is everyone ignoring the o/u?

the patriots have faced one good air defense, they aren't throwing 3 TDs this game. indy is tied for the lead, giving up only .71 TDs per game through the air (tennesee the only REALLY bad passing offense they've faced, although jacksonville's isn't anything to write home about)

UNDERRRR

[psuasskicker]

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why is everyone ignoring the o/u?

the patriots have faced one good air defense, they aren't throwing 3 TDs this game. indy is tied for the lead, giving up only .71 TDs per game through the air (tennesee the only REALLY bad passing offense they've faced, although jacksonville's isn't anything to write home about)

UNDERRRR

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I completely agree with this but also think the over might be a BSP pick this week. I'm waiting till game-time for this line.

- C -

[thelyingthief]

well, the greek has indy at +185.

wow, dog.

[thelyingthief]

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yeah thats v true. and i do bet faves more than dogs.
but seems like when i do want to take the dog, they have the same line as everyone else.

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except that, when you get +5 you have to pay 130 for it. bodog blows. really blows.

in fact, they blow so bad, they got two votes on the who's better looking brady or matt survey.

[thelyingthief]

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I don't get where you say Indy has had a much tougher schedule, Indy has beat 3 teams with a record over .500, NE has beat 4 teams over .500 including pretty much the class of the NFC the Cowboys and Skins and Cleveland who I think still has a chance to win their division. Pats win by 10+ IMO

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although: the patriots have seen opponents with a combined 24/34 mark, where the colts have opponents combining for a 27/24 record. they beat san diego early, when the norv turner era was just in motion, starting the season 1 and 3, beating only the Bears--who has lost to everybody. Washington is 1 and 2 their last three starts, and should be 0 and 3, having been dominated by Arizona in every category.

so...although the "fact" is, yes, the teams they have faced are winning, it's a little less impressive than you think. i've found, in the NFL, it's not wise to look back too far, 5 games at most.

but this is blather.

[pirateboy]

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Indy has the toughest schedule in pro football--and nothing else prepares a team for games like this: NE will not be facing an inexperienced Romo, a decimated buffalo defense, a qb-less washington.

Indy has an o-line that may well be the best pro football has ever seen.

Indy has a defense that can influence Brady: they possess speed, toughness, and youth. They are built to play on plastic, welcome to Indianapolis, and they also have an offense that will move the ball with a pace that will keep that defense rested.

Indy has home field advantage, and it will be LOUD.

Indy has a qb that is a six sigma event: this is a qb that can do anything and everything that Brady can do AND has redefined the position in ways the pundits have not yet fathomed.

Indy, imo, not only can but will beat NE: they will abuse a defense already exposed by Cleveland as lacking stamina and vulnerable to the run. I remind you, NE fell behind at Dallas in the third quarter. I remind you, Moss continues to express as much reluctance to go over the middle as ever. I remind you that NE fields an aging LB core, and this limits their effectiveness to the zones in which they set up, they cannot control the necessary real estate to keep Indy from controlling the game. I believe, the age of the LB's is the achilles tendon of NE, and it will be stretched to a dangerous degree here. NE, defensively, will be unable to deal with the weapons Manning brings to the table.

I do not think that Brady will make it through this game without a turnover or two. and the knock on brady is loss of composure when picked. the pressure that Indy will apply to the NE offense is not so much defensive, as the need to maintain the lead, on the road, against an offense that keeps pace with them, and a defense that will abandon the pretense of limiting brady, but will instead concentrate on taking the ball away, in picks and fumbles.

an interesting aspect of this game within a game of pressure, is how NE will react to waiting to get the ball? knowing that no mistakes will be allowed, none, not one, or they will be down a score.

NE will set the pace early: they have a great offense, more dangerous than at any time in the match-up history of these two teams, but that will not be enough. And Indy will keep that offense on the side line: it will require one stop to tip the scales in Indy's favor, and they will get 2-3.

last year, before the beginning of the play off series, i remarked to an acquaintance that Indy has been the best team in football for the past 8 years. This year, that knowledge seems to permeate the awareness of the players themselves. I will go so far as to say, if they win this game, and the championship, that they are the best team I have ever seen: and I saw the Steelers. Well, maybe the Steelers still. but in the modern era, most definitely the best.

The good news: I will get +170 at some point in the week on a team that should be -3 +100.

tlt

of course, if the O line turns up on the injured list this week, all goes by the board.

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Jesus H. Christ, you sold me. Seriously.