Settle a bet: How many internet players will clear $1-Mil in 2007?

[inyourface]

125 is obscenely arrogant. people just dont understand how much $1M is and how hard it is to make online in 1 year.

Under 25 100%

Re. 50 posters on this site +$1M

HAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHAH

Sorry, I forgot EVERYONE on 2p2 is a winning player...

funny [censored]

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
125 is obscenely arrogant. people just dont understand how much $1M is and how hard it is to make online in 1 year.

Under 25 100%

Re. 50 posters on this site +$1M

HAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHAH

Sorry, I forgot EVERYONE on 2p2 is a winning player...

funny [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

even if 50 people from this site dont win $1M, you're definitely a dumbass

[FlyingStart]

25/50 games dont run all that often. On full tilt you'll typically have one table of 25/50 going, at stars maybe a few more but alot of them HU.

If you go to 10/20 there are enough games if you multisite, but if you want to make a million you will have to win about 40 buyins EVERY month for the entire year. I dont think many players can do this. Poker can be mentally straining and even top players will go through downperiods and probably take extended breaks from time to time.

I think you would have to play 25/50+ and probably running a little hot too. One excellent player's good year at those limits will probably be somewhat at the expense of another good player. For example, one guy might make 1,3 mill this year, but another player in his playing pool might have had a rough year and only made 200K.

[Taylor Caby]

there's a lot of reasons why i don't think more than 25 or so will make 1 million this year, strictly online, not couting big tourney scores.

1. there are typically less than 4-5 25-50+ games running on US sites. it's just very very hard to put in the required hands. we could work out the winrates required (i encourage someone to do so), but with the amount of high stakes games running lately, it's just very hard to get the hands in.

2. people say "i would definitely make 1mm+ if i could beat 10-20." not true. do you realize how much more effort goes into 6-8 tabling 10-20nl than 1-2nl? You have way more variance, way bigger swings (causing tilt and bad play), and way less ability to game select. When you play 25-50+, you are almost never game selecting if you want to put in the amount of hands you need to clear a million. Try playing against a table full of regulars at HSNL online and getting more than 3-4 ptbb/100, even if you are a great player.

3. 25 scandinavian players have made over a million this year? let's start naming them. I'd bet against that in a second, unless there are some insanely fishy 50-100+ games running around the clock that i don't know about (which, if this does exist, details please because i would consider moving to europe to make a few million).

for the guy that asked, i am not one of the guys that will make a million this year. I probably won't even get that close. I'm not a very good example this year, though, because i haven't put in the hours you would need. Again, very few people do.

FWIW I think last year there were easily 50 or 100 people that cleared a million. It was relatively easy to do so because there were always games going and the level of play was much worse.

tc

[thomase]

I think you underestimate how many non-US players grind at pretty much all the sites, except stars and FT, mostly bc those sites are not tax-free for scandinavians. Theres 25/50+ running at Boss Media network, Ongame, Prima, Party, Ladbrokes, Betfair, Crypto and all those sites are softer than Stars and FT, IMO. Tableselect from all these sites and it can be done. Winning 1M at one site is almost impossible to do except for the very best players, but when having a lot of sites to select from, I'm positive that more players that you do not necessarily know about are able to do this. Maybe you're thinking about just US players and only Stars/FTP.
It is a lot harder to do for US players, ofcourse.

With that said, I think you’re right that 25 is too high. 25 scandinavians was off the top of my head, based on how many players I know who will likely win that much this year, and how many players I see at Prima i.e., that I don't know personally, but that I know are solid enough to do this, and also play at other sites. However, I’ve been asking around, and my guess now would be about 10-15. I'll take the over on a world total of over 25 players in a sec, but I'm in doubt now if its 50+ or not.

[AbZurrrd]

A cool million is sure a beautiful thing. You can bring it with you to HSP and joke about it and buy tons of [censored].

So how do you get $1M pretax in 1 yr (taxes depend on countries and states so let's forget it)

We have 365 days. We don't take much vacation, cause we really want that million. On average we play 28 days a month like a maniac i.e ~333 days which defines our goal: how to make $3K a day?

@ 25/50 $3K = 30 ptBB
- w/ a winrate of 5ptBB/100 we'll need 600 hands/day
- w/ a winrate of 2ptBB/100 we'll need 1,500 hands/day

@10/20 $3K = 75 ptBB
- w/ a winrate of 5ptBB/100 we'll need 1,500 hands/day
- w/ a winrate of 2ptBB/100 we'll need 3,750 hands/day

In limit holdem, say a guy makes .8BB/100 or roughly 1BB/hr

@ 50/100 he'll need to play 30 table hours a day (i.e 5 hours if 6 tabling)

@ 100/200 he'll need 15 tables hours a day (i.e could do it only 3 tabling 5 hours a day for instance)

Conclusion: including psychological and human factors in the analysis, it's extremely hard to do it at NLHE/PLO < 25/50 and LHE < 100/200

For regular NLHE/PLO $5000 it's definitely possible and my guess is: at upper mid-high limit only the bravest will achieve it and at the nosebleed stakes, well, calculations are stupid since $1M is within the range of monthly swings.

The real question to ask is how many people can do it two years and + in a row.

EDIT: for all lazy 25/50, take 14 days instead of 28 and double the times...still very attainable

[nevadaJACK]

To answer the Q of how we had hoped to settle this, well, I guess we really didn't think that one through...it was more of just a drunk one-upmanship type thing e.g. "Dude, there's no way it's over 125. Want to put $500 on it? -Sure"

After showing him this thread, my buddy admitted that he was probably wrong with >125, and he paid for our hotel room as penance (and i let him slide on the $500). Although for the record, I think it's a closer over/under than people in this thread were suggesting (and a lot of the higher-stakes players seem to have said the same). 25/50 runs pretty regularly on a host of non-US sites, and it really only takes a modest winrate + modest # of hours if you're playing that high, and as many have pointed out, a full-time dedicated 10/20NL could get there.

[benlj21]

how the hell is anyone gonna know, especially considering most of these guys play nosebleed stakes live too

[berserk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Under 50 for sure. Across all sites there are what, only a few 50-100+ games going on?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's doable at 10/20 and 25/50 though. Probably even 5/10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Samo made 6 million at 10/20!

[/ QUOTE ]
LA is up 600K at 5/10, apparently, so far this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who's "LA"? Even assuming a solid winrate of 5 PTBB at 5/10 (basically $1 / hand), you're telling me he's played 600K hands this year (averaging 75,000 / month)??? Sick if true.

I think # > $1M is greater than 25...and certainly under 250. I take under-125 all day long.

[/ QUOTE ]
600k hands in 8+ months isn't a big deal. to many, ( not me) it's slacking.

Dunno the "record", but I'd not be surprised if someone like nations or rainkhan( in SNG's) has played 250k+ in one month.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have always assumed nationz (5/10 on FT? if this is who you are talking about) was a certainly losing player. Am I wron here?

[Jeff_B]

Okay I get the final decision...
Whoever ships me the most wins the bet?
seriously bet on something that you can decide on for sure