Was thinking about this one

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
we need to know how BIG his flop calling range is and how much it narrows when we get to the turn.

i don't think this is true. if we know we are behind his turn calling range, then it doesn't matter if he calls the flop w/every hand in his range. how much it tightens is irrelevant; all that matters is that it tightens to the point that we are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

just because we are behind the range of hands that he calls with on the turn doesn't mean that a turn bet is bad.

you would agree that if he calls with any two on the flop and folds anything except 4 of a kind on the turn (ie he folds top boat if we shove turn) then we are WAY behind his turn calling range and yet it's still profitable to shove right?


you can think about this situation in the same way you would do an ICM problem in a SNG if you're familiar with that. even though every hand he calls with is ahead of us he might only have a hand he calls with a small percentage of the time, thus it's profitable to shove the turn.


i'm not saying that this is necessarily true, just trying to explain why it can be true.

[Poker_is_Hard]

mason55, again I believe you points on the turn are around a decision to semi-bluff or not. Do you agree that any bet on this turn is a semi-bluff and we need to then assess or FE.

And if we have the opinion that he calls our semi-bluff with hands that we are behind and folds hands we are ahead of, I do not believe a semi-bluff is a good idea here.

Now if you believe we have enough FE to get some of the hands we are behind of to fold, then yes a semi-bluff is the correct play.

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
mason55, again I believe you points on the turn are around a decision to semi-bluff or not. Do you agree that any bet on this turn is a semi-bluff and we need to then assess or FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah any bet on the turn is going to be a semi-bluff for sure.

[ QUOTE ]
And if we have the opinion that he calls our semi-bluff with hands that we are behind and folds hands we are ahead of, I do not believe a semi-bluff is a good idea here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, that's totally right, if he calls with every single hand we're behind and folds every single hand we're ahead of then a semi-bluff is really bad here.

[tarheeljks]

gah, i'm a tard. yeah you're right, how much the range tightens does matter- a lot.

[Poker_is_Hard]

Sorry, ninja edit in my last post. I'm not smart enough to always gather my thoughts before posting. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Poker_is_Hard]

Okay let me try and sum up.

Flop
- We bet for value b/c we are ahead of his preflop calling range.

Turn
- He now has a new range due to his flop call.
- What percentage of hands does he fold in which we are currently behind, QQ,JJ,TT, etc?
- Based on our belief of the above questions we semi-bluff or check
- Also note, he doesn’t need to fold a high % of the hands we are currently behind b/c we do have mad outs which adds to our EV.

River – we missed, he bets
- What is the size of the bet?, value or bluff
- What percentage of the time do we expect this player to bluff?
- Based on these answers we call or fold

River – we missed, he checks’
- Same as turn, except now it is a bluff not a semi bluff

River – we Hit A,K, or Flush
- Valuetown – must believe we have the best hand, try to extract as much value as possible

Questions
-What Range do you give the player on the turn?
-What part of this range do you believe he will fold?
-Do you semi-bluff or check turn?

[tufat23]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ and 55 arent that different here

[/ QUOTE ]


yes they are, a lot

[carrotsnake]

JJ and 55 are very very very different equity wise

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JJ and 55 arent that different here

[/ QUOTE ]


yes they are, a lot

[/ QUOTE ]

werd.
77 is a different story imo.