crockpot's mlb picks 4/16-4/22 (YTD 30-29, +38.12)

[ImNew]

919 Cleveland Indians +150 caribsports ($300/450)

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
what's better? U11 EVEN or U11.5 -125

[/ QUOTE ]

About the same. 25c per 1/2 run is a reasonable rule of thumb. I'm sure others could tell you exactly which one is better, but it's close.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
919 Cleveland Indians +150 caribsports ($300/450)

[/ QUOTE ]

+148 at WSEX.

Are these two huge plays kind of correlated? I ask because it almost becomes a kind of 7 unit play if they are.

Edit: I ask so people don't accidentally dig too deep. I used to make a mistake on NBA halftimes where I would accidentally overbet my roll, despite taking two +EV plays (one pregame, one halftime)

[Jordan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what's better? U11 EVEN or U11.5 -125

[/ QUOTE ]

About the same. 25c per 1/2 run is a reasonable rule of thumb. I'm sure others could tell you exactly which one is better, but it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. I'll do half and half. Thanks Homer.

[crockpot]

more 4/19:

Was +120 (1)
Fla/NYM over 9 -115 (1)
SF +100 (1)
Hou +130 (1)
Tex +130 (1)
Tex/ChW under 9.5 -105 (1)
Bos +180 (2) - why are the lines against toronto so good? the team has been gutted with glaus and ryan out, and it's like the books never adjusted at all. maybe they were just that overrated to begin with.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what's better? U11 EVEN or U11.5 -125

[/ QUOTE ]

About the same. 25c per 1/2 run is a reasonable rule of thumb. I'm sure others could tell you exactly which one is better, but it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. I'll do half and half. Thanks Homer.

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually have the 11 line as significantly better, but i think this is because i estimate the line being very far off, so you're looking for the lower juice.

for example, ordinarily you would rather bet an MLB team under 100 season wins -120 rather than under 95 +100. but if you somehow estimate their true talent at 70 wins, you might as well take the discount since they will rarely finish between 95 and 100.

also 11 isn't all that common of a total to hit, at least compared to 9.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
919 Cleveland Indians +150 caribsports ($300/450)

[/ QUOTE ]

+148 at WSEX.

Are these two huge plays kind of correlated? I ask because it almost becomes a kind of 7 unit play if they are.

Edit: I ask so people don't accidentally dig too deep. I used to make a mistake on NBA halftimes where I would accidentally overbet my roll, despite taking two +EV plays (one pregame, one halftime)

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, this is a good point. both bets are +EV largely due to carmona being underrated. it would certainly be wise to not commit more than 3-4 total units to the game if your unit is more than 1% of your bankroll.

edit: this has me thinking about parlaying the two, but i think i've bet enough on the game already. might be worth it for those who haven't put anything down yet.

[Lori]

I thought about the parlay about 0.0001 seconds after hitting submit on the second bet.

Might be one to watch out for later in later games though.

[Jordan]

I think crockpot is moving the totals as he bets. I rarely get a bet in at his number.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
I think crockpot is moving the totals as he bets. I rarely get a bet in at his number.

[/ QUOTE ]

I get his number on about 2/3rds of bets and I don't have a CRIS account, which explains the others.

+130 Tex and Hou is still available at WSEX, Bos +180 still available at VIP, Evs SF still available at 5Dimes, you have to hunt around a bit.