Lottery Genius

[Nicholasp27]

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picking calendar number increases EV but is really just less negative value. if you figure in taxes and lumpsum penalties, it is never +ev to buy any lottery ticket. there was a post a while back about the odds and value of lottery tickets.

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There are rare cases when it's +EV. When that's true, then it's profitable to buy out all the combinations. There have been some interesting documented cases of people doing this successfully.

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and if just 1 other person also buys out all the combinations, then u are splitting the pot and it goes back to -ev...

[Ra_]

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lumpsum penalties

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???

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When they pay out a jackpot, they do it over say, 30 years. The money that is waiting to be paid to you is sitting in an account that is earning interest.

If you choose to lump sum it, that interest isn't there, therefore in addition to being raped by taxes, you get even less because of this.

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I get that. But it's pretty misleading to call it a penalty. You're getting the entire jackpot. You can invest it how you please, instead of the fixed annuity that they would invest it in for you.

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Your not getting the advertised value. If the jackpot is 100M, the lumpsum is usually like 55M or something like that. Then taxes, so you'll ussually keep somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3 of the advertized value of the lottery.

I'm not exactly sure what you are calling the "jackpot", but you do not get all the money on the big sign paid to you immeaditly if you win.

[Wubbie075]

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Since I've won, there's been a lot of numbering systems for lotteries all over the Internet. Before that, there weren't any.

lol, this kind of crap existed on commodore 64s.

it would be cool to see the response if the numbers from the tv show "lost" hit. and can you imagine how many times that jackpot would be split?

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108

[FlyWf]

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However if all numbers but the last number hit, it's 100k each for a total of like 12 billion. Powerball = busto

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wow, i didn't know about that! i looked and the payout for X-X-X-X-X-O is actually 200k. there's some multiplier crap cited at the bottom too, up to 1M.

maybe 4 8 15 16 23 and anything but 42 could cripple them. lotto execs that know lost must [censored] their pants if even the first 2 numbers drawn match.

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At least for Mega Millions there's a disclaimer about this, that if too many people hit the non-jackpot prizes they reserve the right to not pay the advertised amount.

[Butso]

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Reason is that teh numbes are supposed to be random so you know that they are going to turn high sooner or later, sso that they average out.

this is how I've made money on the stocks. Buy low sell high, thats my secret

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yeah this is how i beat roulette professionally. i sit there and rail for about an hour, marking down which numbers have been hit. then i sit in and bet on the numbers that have not been hit yet. works like a charm!

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nah theres a different way to beat roullette. They let you win for a while to get you addicted to it so what you do is quit when you've won all you can off of them. Usually this is about 8 or 9 spins as long as you are playing black.

[Butso]

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Reason is that teh numbes are supposed to be random so you know that they are going to turn high sooner or later, sso that they average out.

this is how I've made money on the stocks. Buy low sell high, thats my secret

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Chance has no memory. I spent many a nights toiling over the math of this. If you try to mathematically prove that a "skewed" distribution should "return to center/median," you will run into two problems:

1. Defining a "skewed set"
2. Comparing infinite to finite series.

It's the same as asking... if I flip a coin 238947234892734892347 times and it's all heads, what are the odds of the next flip being tails? The answer is 50%.

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this logic is totally wrong. Its not even possilbe to have that many 'heads' in a row is it? There is about a 50% chance of heads and 50% chance of tails with a normal coin so if you got more than 100 heads in a row you'd know it was a dodgy coin.

[brashbrother]

No the logic is correct. You have to look at the question ALONE, which is "what are the odds of coming up heads with the next flip?"

Since the coin has no memory, it does not know that it came up heads so many times before. If it makes you feel better, you can consider something more plausible, like if you flipped it 20 times and got 16 heads and 4 tails, what are the chances that you would get heads with the next flip? Answer is still 50%.

[donut lover]

you are absolutly correct brashbrother...

[Runkmud]

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if I flip a coin 238947234892734892347 times and it's all heads

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I get this coin weighed and checked aerodynamically, it's obviously fixed, then spend the rest of my days profiting, or at least the next flip.

[BigSoonerFan]

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Wow. A financial Adviser that is stupid enough to think his method works, is very scary.



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My dad is the same way. He is an accounting genius, yet he is convinced he has a fullproof baccarat stragety. I find it really confusing how he can be sp retarded as he is generally very intelligent.

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I'll one up you, I know a rich dude who's a retired investment banker who thinks roulette etc. are beatable...

"the luck comes in waves"

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He's right. It does come in waves. It's a bitch figuring out where thre crests and troughs are though!