2007 mlb season win totals

[mrbaseball]

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i strongly disagree that you can do a better job projecting a team's season wins by looking at the team and saying "well, this team was really good and they brought the same guys back, so they'll win 95 again" than by applying pecota judiciously

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I never said I could? In fact I consider trying to predict team wins to be a suckers game. You tie up money for a very long period and $hit happens. Trades, injuries, breakouts, breakdowns, etc etc etc.

Pecota is probably most useful for fantasy baseball. As a handicapping tool it is pretty useless in my opinion.

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if you call a system unreliable because it was off on so many mets' forecasts, you had better tell me how you knew that their whole team was going to break out in the same year, what you saw that the computer didn't. hindsight has no value in this discussion. vegas didn't predict 97 wins. no sane analyst outside of queens predicted 97 wins. did you?


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't know. Neither did Pecota and that's the point. Like you say Pecota has the best correlation of probably anything else out there. But that still doesn't mean it's worth risking one penny betting on it's projections. Season long forecasting is one thing and handicapping is another. Since I only worry about one game at a time these projections (accurate or not) have very little bearing on whether the line is right or not on tonights game.

[ImBen]

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Season long forecasting is one thing and handicapping is another. Since I only worry about one game at a time these projections (accurate or not) have very little bearing on whether the line is right or not on tonights game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on your comments in this thread, I'd say there's almost zero chance you're a lifetime winner betting baseball, in any form.

[Thremp]

mrbaseball,

To make an analogy this is similar to when I got into an argument with tdarko about pitchers in baseball and how form degrades. I clearly have less knowledge of the subject (in my situation... baseball pitching) than you do of yours (baseball forecasting), but regardless I managed to get into an argument with someone who was an expert on the subject. Needless to say the "discussion" was over before it started. I see a similar fate for this "debate".

[LotsOfOuts69]

Sorry for intruding guys. You go ahead and bet the farm that the Mets will win under 86 games next year. I dont need stupid projections to know how my team is going to do and how they play and how they are going to do next year.

Instead, i just actually watch all the games.

Good luck!

[tippy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Season long forecasting is one thing and handicapping is another. Since I only worry about one game at a time these projections (accurate or not) have very little bearing on whether the line is right or not on tonights game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on your comments in this thread, I'd say there's almost zero chance you're a lifetime winner betting baseball, in any form.

[/ QUOTE ]


Ok ImBen I'll bite. Just because this guy doesn't use Pecotas or other season "projections" he is a loser? Please explain that logic. Are you saying that a handicapper is a loser if he doesn't use these "computer projections"? It's probably the other way around. I believe it is probably the losers who depend on "projections" to handicap individual games.

As for projections, it is just a futile waste of time, unless you play fantasy baseball. What a player should or shouldn't do over a 162 "projected" season just doesn't really matter that much in a single game and I find it hard to believe that you guys would use said information to handicap an individual baseball game.

[TheRover]

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I dont need stupid projections to know how my team is going to do

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome.

this whole thread=awesome.

[mrbaseball]

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Quote:
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Season long forecasting is one thing and handicapping is another. Since I only worry about one game at a time these projections (accurate or not) have very little bearing on whether the line is right or not on tonights game.


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Based on your comments in this thread, I'd say there's almost zero chance you're a lifetime winner betting baseball, in any form

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't understand the difference between season long Pecota projections and breaking down and handicapping a single game?

[Thremp]

mrbaseball,

I think he does. But I'd venture to say your "system" is much closer to Pecota than you think on a game by game basis.

[mrbaseball]

Don't get me wrong. I follow BP and look at Pecota. I just don't bet off of it. I use a lot of the same indicators and internals, I just don't use Pecotas. I am more interested in what is actually happening rather than what Pecota says should be happening.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't get me wrong. I follow BP and look at Pecota. I just don't bet off of it. I use a lot of the same indicators and internals, I just don't use Pecotas. I am more interested in what is actually happening rather than what Pecota says should be happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah... But you get what I'm saying right? Where Pecota says Barry Bonds get 400 PA or whatever this year is immaterial to what he does during the game, but when they are attempting to forecast the other stats... They are doing something very similar to what you're doing.

Also regression/progression is a little more difficult I'd imagine. How do you handle that? We could use Reyes for an example.