Is Hasuwip 2p2??

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Game #8578867989: Hold'em Limit ($200/$400) - 2007/02/23 - 02:49:01 (ET)
Table 'Majuba II' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: AlexSem ($5400 in chips)
Seat 2: Baffa ($9580 in chips)
Seat 3: tiger76 ($7778 in chips)
Seat 4: JarleAA ($10307 in chips)
Seat 5: bshizzle ($7200 in chips)
Seat 6: PapaWarbucks ($39138 in chips)
Baffa: posts small blind $100
tiger76: posts big blind $200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PapaWarbucks [8c Qc]
JarleAA: folds
bshizzle: folds
PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400
AlexSem: raises $200 to $600
Baffa: folds
tiger76: folds
PapaWarbucks: calls $200
*** FLOP *** [7d 4s 9s]
PapaWarbucks: checks
AlexSem: bets $200
PapaWarbucks: calls $200
*** TURN *** [7d 4s 9s] [3d]
PapaWarbucks: checks
AlexSem: bets $400
PapaWarbucks: raises $400 to $800
AlexSem: calls $400
*** RIVER *** [7d 4s 9s 3d] [8s]
PapaWarbucks: bets $400
AlexSem: folds
PapaWarbucks collected $3495 from pot
PapaWarbucks: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3500 | Rake $5
Board [7d 4s 9s 3d 8s]
Seat 1: AlexSem (button) folded on the River
Seat 2: Baffa (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: tiger76 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: JarleAA folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: bshizzle folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: PapaWarbucks collected ($3495)



[/ QUOTE ]

The math shows this is pretty marginal. Under the best assumptions (67% he has no pair, will fold 100% to a Q,8,6,5,10 and J on the river, hero will never bluff the river on any card villian will call (he will c/f), villian will always 3 bet a made hand on the turn - which hero will fold to, villian will never 3 bet without a made hand AND villian does not have a hand that could improve with one of these 'outs' i.e. flush draw or AQ) hero's play is +EV a touch more than 0.5BB (assuming I have kept all the numbers straight in my head).

I think these are pretty optimistic assumptions. I would guess this play varies from EV neutral to significantly negative depending on the player. The EV benefits will be meta in nature and obviously Schneids feels they are big enough. To the extent your opponenet already knows you are capable of this type of play, the hand based EV will decrease as well as the additional meta effects and it probably gets to be somewhat bad. It is certainly a potential good spot however for somwone perceived as tight ABC to do a 'crazy' play to change their image without giving back too much in EV.

Aside - the % chance villian has a made hand here is super important to the calc. I have chose 33% and done so fairly flippantly (just my guess), dialing in hand ranges for him could change this figure and move the play clearly in one direction or the other, I just do not really care to go through the bother.....

[fishboy]

If the moves are dopne so infrequently then there somewhat insignificant. Alsmost like random spewing. Don't get me wrong i don't suggest never making moves. If you played with me on party you know i made many moves. But i always did it with some kind of draw not air. The only time i make a move with air is if a big card comes on the turn that looks like it could hit my hand i might bluff raise.

For instance: I raise the bb(i have qj) he calls. flop comes 552 he leads i call. Turn is A or K he bets i may raise sometimes.

But to checkraise with air out of positon with no draw whatsoever against a guy who loosly calls you down to me is spewing.

I'm only abc preflop but postflop i mix it up but to mix it up with stone air to me seems bad. Let me ask you this. If making the play shneids makes done so infrequently why is it necessary at all? For image? Why not do it on a semi-bluff like even 2 overs and a gutshot? It will give the same image to your opponent as a spewer but you have outs if get called on the turn to escape. Doesn't it sound more sensible?

Not sure if this is very coherent either as i just woke up. You still haven't told me your name on party. Dont worry i dont play there anymore im american.

[JohnnyHumongous]

Some more Hasuwisp hands from last couple days-

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to I_FUSTIGATE_U [ Td Kc ]
Subedey folds
JudysTuna folds
Hasuwisp raises [$150]
I_FUSTIGATE_U calls [$100]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, 9s, 4h ]
Hasuwisp bets [$100]
I_FUSTIGATE_U calls [$100]
** Dealing Turn ** [ As ]
Hasuwisp checks
I_FUSTIGATE_U bets [$200]
Hasuwisp raises [$400]
I_FUSTIGATE_U calls [$200]
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]
Hasuwisp bets [$200]
I_FUSTIGATE_U calls [$200]
Hasuwisp shows [ Jd, 8h ]two pairs, Aces and Eights.
I_FUSTIGATE_U doesn't show [ Td, Kc ]a pair of Aces.
Hasuwisp wins $1795 from the main pot with two pairs, Aces and Eights.


** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to I_FUSTIGATE_U [ 8d Ac ]
otterkopf folds
Hasuwisp raises [$200]
Subedey calls [$150]
I_FUSTIGATE_U calls [$100]
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, 8c, Ah ]
Subedey checks
I_FUSTIGATE_U checks
Hasuwisp bets [$100]
Subedey raises [$200]
I_FUSTIGATE_U raises [$300]
Hasuwisp raises [$300]
Subedey folds
I_FUSTIGATE_U calls [$100]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8h ]
I_FUSTIGATE_U bets [$200]
Hasuwisp calls [$200]
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
I_FUSTIGATE_U bets [$200]
Hasuwisp calls [$200]
I_FUSTIGATE_U shows [ 8d, Ac ]a full house, Aces full of Eights.
Hasuwisp shows [ Ad, 6c ]a full house, Aces full of Eights.
Hasuwisp wins $1197.50 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of Eights.
I_FUSTIGATE_U wins $1197.50 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of Eights.




He pours in money with the worst hand and gets there way more than mathematics would ever suggest...

[teddyFBI]

Fustigate:
you played Hand 1, above, about as poorly as you could have played it.

I haven't seen anything, btw, that leads me to believe that Hasu's anything other than a (very) good, aggro LAG.

[Victor]

lol, johnny_humongous did u just out yourself?

[daryn]

[ QUOTE ]
lol, johnny_humongous did u just out yourself?

[/ QUOTE ]

it appears so.

[Victor]

honestly, johnny_h/fustigate you come off really bad in this thread.

whats this mean "
He pours in money with the worst hand and gets there way more than mathematics would ever suggest... "

and you say this " I have degrees in economics and statistics," but you obv dont understand stats and probability too well.

[baronzeus]

wow im sad to see that johnny h is fustigate, who is a complete dbag at the tables