***** November LC Thread *****

[Insane_Steve]

Yay. My FTP account got frozen today after I transfered money on request of a friend to someone with a suspicious account.

Also I'm busto on Stars because I suck at PLO cash (or can't dodge rivers ever, either one works)... so ya, I'm SOL until FTP gets back to me. In other words, I'm SOL for.... probably forever knowing FTP.

[censored] everything.

[daveT]

It's funny, TNixon and JayShark didn't see the CLEAR error here:

phi is the cumulative normal distribution function. Suppose you have a normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation s. For any value, you can make a "z-score," which is essentially the number of standard deviations away from the mean that you are.

z(x) = (x - mu)/s

So if your distribution has a mean of 10 and a standard deviation of 5, then 2.5 has a z-score of -1.5.

Phi(z) is the probability that if you randomly select a point from your distribution, it will lie to the left of the z-score z.

So take the familiar example that 68% of points lie between +1 and -1 standard deviations. This implies that phi(-1) is 16%, phi(0) is 50%, and phi(1) is 84%.

I got 17.89% by using the following variables:

w = 1.5
s = 17
n = 225
s_w = 1.13333
b = 300

ror(w,b) = exp(-2*1.5*300/17^2) = .0444
(that's term 1 in the roru formula)

exp(2*(300^2)*(1.13333^2/1.5^4)) = 15.929
(thats the second term)

phi(1.5 - 2*300*(1.13333^2/1.5^2)) = .121673
(that's the third term)

phi(-1.5/1.13333)
(that's the fourth term)

Multiplying terms 1,2, and 3 together and adding term 4 gives 17.89%.

--------------------------------





Ah I spotted a little error you made that caused my confusion. It should have read exp(2*(300^2)*(1.13333^2/ 17 ^4)) = 15.929
(thats the second term)

phi(1.5 - 2*300*(1.13333^2/ 17 ^2)) = .121673
(that's the third term)

You had entered the win rate in to the formula instead of the standard deviation.Easily done.

-------------------------

Easily screwed up? No Kidding. I would have probably punched in my mom's birthday.

[hra146]

the pokergods are being real funny lately. Im not complaining really, but in the beginning of my downswing I drop down to the 33s. I continue running bad bad bad bad bad and TODAY I totally give up on life and poker and everything involved and 2table some 22s, just cause I dont know what to do with my time.

13/16



Im not sure if I should be saying "thank you" or "[censored] you"... I guess its a thank you.


Dear Pokergod,

thank you.

[hra146]

15/18

[PureDiesel]

[ QUOTE ]
the pokergods are being real funny lately. Im not complaining really, but in the beginning of my downswing I drop down to the 33s. I continue running bad bad bad bad bad and TODAY I totally give up on life and poker and everything involved and 2table some 22s, just cause I dont know what to do with my time.

Im not sure if I should be saying "thank you" or "[censored] you"... I guess its a thank you.


Dear Pokergod,

thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, that exactly what have happened to me last 2 days, I started recover(I hope for long time) on the 3rd day

[ChicagoRy]

Burn Ongame down. Burn it!

[daveT]

So, I am starting to gain my confidence again. Hopefully, I will find that b/e tonight. Wish me luck.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t2340)
Button (t660)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Button calls t10, Hero checks.

Flop: (t40) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t120</font>, Hero calls t80.

Turn: (t280) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t520 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t520.

River: (t1320) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1320


Hero has 6h Qd (two pair, queens and fours).
Button has 6d Ad (one pair, fours).
Outcome: Hero wins t1320.

[daveT]

Everyone is going to be soooooooooooooooooooooo proud of me!!!

I just copied and pasted the SAGE system, and I plan on studying it and learning it. This is going to take a while, but with it right there on my screen while playing, I am going to use it!

Still, I obviously have to study it: such a slow process when you are this lazy.

[pokercurious]

SAGE Calculator

It won't help you at 8BB+ stacks, but it will calculate the power index if you're too lazy to do so.

Additionally, can someone explain why there are discrepancies between SAGE and the jam/fold tables in Mathematics of Poker? Shouldn't they be effectively the same?

[daveT]

So, I got a wonderful compliment:

"you have terrible luck"