Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?

[sanmarcosrun1]

Load up on second half over anyone?

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Load up on second half under anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, will have to see the line, but my guess is I will like the under more than the over. I expect things to settle down a bit in the 2nd half.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Load up on second half over anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

no....bowl strategy
when the first half is way over, bet the 2nd half under
when the first half is way under, bet the 2nd half over


games have adjustments and typically ebb and flow. It is very rare for the game to go the whole way from opening kickoff to the end without the two teams being very different in talent levels

[sanmarcosrun1]

oh ok thanks for the tips.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, this doesn't include the bowls, but the Sagarin ratings like the Buckeyes by 11 on a neutral field.

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Sagarin ELO had them by 4.5. You're only quoting part of the story. Running it up on Minny really doesn't affect this game.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Load up on second half over anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

no....bowl strategy
when the first half is way over, bet the 2nd half under
when the first half is way under, bet the 2nd half over


games have adjustments and typically ebb and flow. It is very rare for the game to go the whole way from opening kickoff to the end without the two teams being very different in talent levels

[/ QUOTE ]

Fade recent form fallacy often?

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Load up on second half over anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

no....bowl strategy
when the first half is way over, bet the 2nd half under
when the first half is way under, bet the 2nd half over


games have adjustments and typically ebb and flow. It is very rare for the game to go the whole way from opening kickoff to the end without the two teams being very different in talent levels

[/ QUOTE ]

Weird. I have no idea the value of numbers but I was going to hit the u70 at -110 but it dropped to -135 so I hit the over at +115 I think. They took the line down and then after the punt they opened at 67 and the over was driven to -125.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, this doesn't include the bowls, but the Sagarin ratings like the Buckeyes by 11 on a neutral field.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sagarin ELO had them by 4.5. You're only quoting part of the story. Running it up on Minny really doesn't affect this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, Sagarin had average SEC team as 4.2 pts better than avg big10 team. Given the SEC's bowl performance v B10's performance so far, I'd say that's right.
[aub, lsu, kentucky, so car, GA winner, ark + Tenn loser]
(psu, wisky winner, iowa, mich, minn, purdue losers]

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Load up on second half over anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

no....bowl strategy
when the first half is way over, bet the 2nd half under
when the first half is way under, bet the 2nd half over


games have adjustments and typically ebb and flow. It is very rare for the game to go the whole way from opening kickoff to the end without the two teams being very different in talent levels

[/ QUOTE ]

Fade recent form fallacy often?

[/ QUOTE ]

please explain this like I'm a 5 year-old
I think I know what you are saying, but I want to be sure.
I think that I, and the rest of the forum, but really I could benefit.

[Thremp]

Remember when I asked you about what the line would be for two teams that were playing 2-3 weeks and bet them. Then remember the part where I made buckets of money?

Results of games in interim don't mean anything unless it exposes huge weaknesses or there are injuries.