Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar's 10k - Page 8

zizazziza · #71 10-26-2007, 01:03 PM

1) im not really sure what the results are, but I guess ZJ had a big hand or something like that (bad river card)?
2) I mean I dont think that I'm folding pf getting 3:1 (didnt realize this originally), but I am probably just going to play very cautiously against a big stack and difficult player.
3) Whether or not he is better than the other players, my other claim about find other players at the table also has to do with finding other players with stacks that are more vulnerable then ZJs.
4) ZJ knows you are in the blinds, a good player, and the CL, so doesnt this inherently say that he probably has something (even if his raise is from the CO)?
5) If we lead here, isnt he floating a lot of flops and we have no real idea where he is anyways? I guess that if we are betting both flop and turn, I have some issues about folding to a r/r on the turn.

baltostar · #72 10-26-2007, 01:09 PM

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Sensors indicate that Baltostar is %45 likely to be fat, and %70 likely to be a gimmick account.

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Insane homeless people tend to be skinny and have no need for gimmick accounts.

betgo · #73 10-26-2007, 01:10 PM

How do you find other players to play pots against? This is the bubble, ZJ is the 3rd biggest stack in the tournament, so he is probably raising just about every hand. I wouldn't let him steal every pot because he is a good player.

Since this is the bubble and you guys are the two big stacks, isn't it likely you are going to wind up in some pots together? I don't see the problem with that.

psyduck · #74 10-26-2007, 01:20 PM

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Even knowing results I still think check/call turn and bet/fold river is the best line.

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Something I didn't even consider at the time was leading the turn, which seems like the best play because ZJ wasn't double-barreling that often and is often checking behind a lot of hands with outs (pair + straight or flush draw, naked straight or flush draws, TPTK, TP2K, MPTK, MP2K etc), and hands like QQ/KK for pot control since I can easily have TTT/999/222 or JT myself, or have a combo draw and be c/ring him off the best hand.

When he bets, I believe is range is either {bluff} or {hand he is stacking off with}, which is either a set or a straight. I think he might also bet/fold T9 and maaaaybe [censored] like AA/KK. In other words, I blow him off his bluffs when I c/r and will get stacked when he has a better hand.

The one thing I'm unsure about is whether I should bet/call all in or bet/fold. The 2 hearts on the turn with the 3000 straight draws make it a murkier situation as well. However, it's ZJ, he's playing against the field chipleader, and probably isn't semi-bluffing against the only stack that can busto him when he can pick much better spots to use his stack (as bad as that sounds). I think he calls in position with his medium strength hands (combo draws, TPTK-type hands) if I lead.

So in essence, I think bet/fold > check/call > bet/call > check/raise on the turn.

I wish I had spent like 5 more minutes thinking about this hand on the turn instead of going "durrrrr, top two, durrrr, check-raise" [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

psyduck · #75 10-26-2007, 01:25 PM

Also it's important to note that three different straights get there on the turn: 87, Q8 and KQ, all easily within his preflop and flop range (his flop c-bet freq is very high).

Todd Terry · #76 10-26-2007, 01:50 PM

IMO ZJ raising a turn lead does not mean you're beat, and I think if you lead the turn it has to be with the intention of shoving over a raise. I also don't think a turn bet by him means his range is super-polarized, on a board that drawy, there's a give a free card/risk getting blown off a decent hand tradeoff that he can come down on either side of.

aditya · #77 10-26-2007, 01:51 PM

Once you c/r to 110k or whatever you c/r to psyduck, and he pushes, how much more is it to call (what pot odds are you getting)? When I first heard about the hand on pokerwire(?) I honestly thought you should have folded once he 4bet pushes your c/r on the turn.

NYWalker · #78 10-26-2007, 01:54 PM

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On the turn, you have top two pair on a 3-straight, 2-flush board. There is 66K in the pot and villain has 275K left. Villain could have a better hand, but since he has close to random cards, there is not reason to think a straight or set is likely.

So on the turn, I would probably checkraise to get the money in. You could also lead out for 40-50K. Check/calling is OK. It increases the risk you are drawn out on, but limits losses if you are behind. If you win the hand, it sometimes gets more money in and sometimes less.

Top two is almost as good as bottom set. It has less outs if you are behind. Pretty much no one folds this hand in this situation.

People really have to understand that you need to analyze the situation as it occurs and not look for ways to fold a hand, because the results were a loss. This thread reminds me of some of the weak/tight BS on P5.

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I like this analysis. Clearly, betgo is thinking in a way combined live and online plays.

cr allin the turn is OK (I would do that in other spots with such board, not in 30pp left against a deep stack, good player). It's a risky play here in case villain value bet with straight/better hands. check/call has risk of being drawn out, but since we can't call a shove if we bet or c/r (not allin), that's why I think c/c is better than bet/fold.

35K turn bet can't tell, but along with a river bet, we can see villain's range better. lose minimum and go to showdown, villain is too deep to shove for value at most rivers.

uclabruinz · #79 10-26-2007, 01:55 PM

I have no idea what the results were (other then apparently psyduck lost), but it seems like this hand is being made way more difficult then it needs to be.

Preflop call is best. Folding is bad. I don't like raising here with these stacks because JTs has more value with deeper stacks. We're mostly hoping to flop big and get a lot of chips.

Flop, I like c/call. I don't like leading because a raise by ZJ makes me really uncomfortable as a big pot is brewing and I have a mediocre hand with no real read on ZJ's range. Save your leads for big hands and complete bluffs against the right players.

Turn, this is a lead out for reasons Adanthar explained, I believe. A good player like ZJ will play too perfectly (i.e., take the free card with the right hands) and probably doesn't think a second barrel will blow you off whatever you have at this point given the texture of the board. He also might call with a lot of his hands that you are beating, given that he knows you are good and aggro and may be on a move near the bubble against a big but shorter stack, and even call a river bet with a hand you are beating. If he raises the turn, I think I call but could see folding. If he shoves the river after you bet, fold barring some sort of insane read.

betgo · #80 10-26-2007, 02:36 PM

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I have no idea what the results were (other then apparently psyduck lost), but it seems like this hand is being made way more difficult then it needs to be.

Preflop call is best. Folding is bad. I don't like raising here with these stacks because JTs has more value with deeper stacks. We're mostly hoping to flop big and get a lot of chips.

Flop, I like c/call. I don't like leading because a raise by ZJ makes me really uncomfortable as a big pot is brewing and I have a mediocre hand with no real read on ZJ's range. Save your leads for big hands and complete bluffs against the right players.

Turn, this is a lead out for reasons Adanthar explained, I believe. A good player like ZJ will play too perfectly (i.e., take the free card with the right hands) and probably doesn't think a second barrel will blow you off whatever you have at this point given the texture of the board. He also might call with a lot of his hands that you are beating, given that he knows you are good and aggro and may be on a move near the bubble against a big but shorter stack, and even call a river bet with a hand you are beating. If he raises the turn, I think I call but could see folding. If he shoves the river after you bet, fold barring some sort of insane read.

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This is maybe the best post in this thread. I have a couple of comments.

I actually like a reraise preflop, although flat calling is fine. ZJ may fold junk, and it makes it harder for him to raise with you to act. Also, the reraise is often better in the SB. I think a suited connector is a fine hand to reraise with, as you can get allin with any pair or draw, representing a big pair or TPTK. If you miss, I would generally cbet/fold.

I rarely lead into the raiser on the flop and would never do it with top pair, but I don't think that play is terrible. I agree this play is better with a big hand or a pure bluff. It is sort of donk style, but you can also lead with a marginal hand you fold to resistance. Sometimes leading with a draw is good. I think check/call is standard, but checkraising or leading out are possible.

This is a drawy board, so I would tend to go for a big checkraise on the turn, representing a draw, hoping to get action from a strong draw or a weaker 2-pair. Against this opponent, I agree leading out may be best.

It is hard to say what to do on the river, because it depends on the turn action and river card, but I would never bet/fold 2-pair. Check/call or bet/call seems better. I don't see how you can fold on the turn, as you could get a lot of action from a strong draw or 2-pair.