#71
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
plays for 10/20/07
chi/tor o1.5 -105 nyr/bos o1.5 +100 ana/dal o1.5 +115 edm/cal o1.5 +105 2 units nsh/sjs o1.5 +105 2 units Starting today, I will now be filtering out some plays based soley on the two teams previous over/under 1.5 %s from the 06-07 season as well as the current season. i.e. det/phx o1.5 +100 would have normally been a play, but their combined over % from the specified time period is ~48.7% so I filtered it because we need 50% to break even on this bet. The 2 unit plays indicate a difference of more then 20c off the combined over/under %'s in our favor. i.e. nsh/sjs o1.5 +105. Thier combined over % is ~54.6% (-120 breakeven) so it more then 20c in our favor. |
#72
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
136: Are you still exploring the Poisson averaging method or was that idea junked last season?
|
#73
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
I still perform the Poisson distribution on a few of the 1st periods, but really just for my own amusement. I don't consider the results in making my plays for the 1st period. I do however use poisson when betting totals for the full game because I feel it is more accurate when considering the whole game and not just a specific period.
|
#74
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
added for 10/20/07
buf/mon o1.5 -105 |
#75
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/20/07 chi/tor o1.5 -105 WIN nyr/bos o1.5 +100 LOSE ana/dal o1.5 +115 LOSE edm/cal o1.5 +105 2 units WIN nsh/sjs o1.5 +105 2 units LOSE buf/mon o1.5 -105 LOSE [/ QUOTE ] 2-4 -1.95 units 07-08 totals 32-34 +0.21 units system has reached the 500 game mark... 249-251 +34.76 units avg. line took was ~+115 W/L record is pretty damn close to the 50% I predicted I would be at before I even started the system. Always a good feeling when the results go along with what you think should happen. |
#76
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
plays for 10/21/07
van/cbj o1.5 +115 col/min o1.5 +105 |
#77
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/21/07 van/cbj o1.5 +115 WIN col/min o1.5 +105 LOSE [/ QUOTE ] 1-1 +.15 units 07-08 totals 33-35 +0.36 units |
#78
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
plays for 10/22/07
*van/car o1.5 +105 *bos/mtl o1.5 +104 2 units sjs/cal o1.5 +110 2 units edit: just for my own personal records, I was able to bet bos/mtl o1.5 +100 for 1.5 units. The official play is still bos/mtl o1.5 +104 for 2 units. |
#79
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
These have to be correlated with total o/u don't they? I would think they would have to be.
|
#80
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
ofcourse they are. In fact, I was thinking along those lines when for example the total is over 5 -110 and the over 1.5 for the 1st period is +105 if it would be better to just take the total for the full game. Not sure if the extra juice would make it -ev though.
|
|
|