2/5 NL *Super Deep*

[tdarko]

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how the [censored] did this thread get 68 replies?

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Duck,

b/c everyone knew the right answer and felt they needed to let it be known that they knew the right answer?

[9cao]

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The result is that maybe Sklansky was right about you guys. The Villain said nothing about the Villain making big bets whatsoever. Villain also stated that there is a good chance that he thinks hero has AA/KK in this spot so he could talk himself into a call PF.

Obviously none of us were there so we don't have the full extent of a read that we would like, but thinking that this is never KK is very wrong.

Donkeys tend not to make huge semi-bluffs, they overbet their perception of the nuts, and make loose calls. I call here all day but would only assume I win around 50% of the time with his range being KK,22,AA. On OP's bankroll I would fold but I would also not be playing with that much money in play.

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Even if his range is 22, AA, KK:

six combos of AA
three combos of KK
three combos of 22

= hero has 75% equity

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Thanks for the math lesson. My analysis was Bayesian, and I think he plays his KK like this a higher % of the time than his AA or 22.

[Gary Stevenson]

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how the [censored] did this thread get 68 replies?

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Duck,

b/c everyone knew the right answer and felt they needed to let it be known that they knew the right answer?

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i think also bc everyone just wanted to see the results

[Teph]

Weird, I think the described villian would play AA and 22 like this much more than KK.

[PumaSwede]

Cant go chicken now, try to look your best and move in

[El Diablo]

sel,

I've been pondering this very interesting hand for quite some time now. Lots of issues to take into consideration and lots of options as to how to play this hand. After giving it a few hours of thought, doing some hand range weighting analysis to figure out equities, and thinking through various meta-game issues at play in this hand, I've decided that the best option for you here is to call.

[creedofhubris]

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The result is that maybe Sklansky was right about you guys. The Villain said nothing about the Villain making big bets whatsoever. Villain also stated that there is a good chance that he thinks hero has AA/KK in this spot so he could talk himself into a call PF.

Obviously none of us were there so we don't have the full extent of a read that we would like, but thinking that this is never KK is very wrong.

Donkeys tend not to make huge semi-bluffs, they overbet their perception of the nuts, and make loose calls. I call here all day but would only assume I win around 50% of the time with his range being KK,22,AA. On OP's bankroll I would fold but I would also not be playing with that much money in play.

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Even if his range is 22, AA, KK:

six combos of AA
three combos of KK
three combos of 22

= hero has 75% equity

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Thanks for the math lesson. My analysis was Bayesian, and I think he plays his KK like this a higher % of the time than his AA or 22.

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If we're going to go all Bayesian I think 22 is by far the most likely of the 3. To put him on KK or AA you have to think that he smooth-calls a reraise preflop, after multiple callers, with one of those hands.

[fslexcduck]

forgive me if someone has asked this, i can't be bothered with 77 "call" replies... would this hand be interesting if he held 222? what do we think then?

[tdomeski]

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Yes he was awful, but even awful players wake up to monsters every once in a while, no?

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The ambiguity in the term "monster" is what makes this an insta call (among other things).

[Marmor]

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RESULTS!

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