PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 10)

[Jack of Arcades]

Yeah.

I think the close win on the road, while impressive, wasn't as impressive as the wins over chargers etc. I came away thinking the teams are much closer than most people believed, especially with a banged up Colts.

But yeah, we're talking about AFC Teams...

[Tyler Durden]

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Who has Seattle beat?.... Their stats look impressive because they beat up on awful teams, but they haven't shown that they can actually beat a good team.

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You do realize that a blowout win over a bad team is more impressive than a narrow win over a better team, right?

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?? Matter of opinion.

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No, it isn't a matter of opinion. Blowouts vs bad teams have more predictive success than close wins against good teams. See here.

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Okay I hate to argue semantics but the issue here is which win is more impressive. Game A or Game B. That is a matter of opinion.

[dkgojackets]

we arent talking about "predictive success" we are talking about what impressed us most.

[PokerFink]

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we arent talking about "predictive success" we are talking about what impressed us most.

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When I said "more impressive" I meant statistically, ie "predictive power." JoA and I are talking about the exact same thing. Sorry for the confusion.

[PokerFink]

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Hypothetically: Sea beats NE by a late FG and that isn't as impressive as a 38-13 over Mia?

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Don't take what I said too far. I said a blowout win over a bad team is better than a close win over a better team, not a close win over perhaps the best team of all time.

[tdarko]

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Don't take what I said too far. I said a blowout win over a bad team is better than a close win over a better team, not a close win over perhaps the best team of all time.

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Ok then. It is better for Sea to beat Pit by 3 than for them to blowout Mia, I am pretty sure if you went into a Sea locker room after a 3 point win against a top tier team in the locker room they are much happier about their accomplishment than when the rout the garbage of the league. This is true in all athletics.

Predictive success and the numbers mean dick b/c the numbers plugged in are skewed as hell. Teams play much differently when up by 4 scores with 10 minutes left to play--this is why there aren't as many routes in the NFL...watch every game, soooooo many garbage scores late every week.

[jalapenoguy]

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Don't take what I said too far. I said a blowout win over a bad team is better than a close win over a better team, not a close win over perhaps the best team of all time.

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Ok then. It is better for Sea to beat Pit by 3 than for them to blowout Mia, I am pretty sure if you went into a Sea locker room after a 3 point win against a top tier team in the locker room they are much happier about their accomplishment than when the rout the garbage of the league. This is true in all athletics.

Predictive success and the numbers mean dick b/c the numbers plugged in are skewed as hell. Teams play much differently when up by 4 scores with 10 minutes left to play--this is why there aren't as many routes in the NFL...watch every game, soooooo many garbage scores late every week.

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not just about that stuff. lots of luck involved in close wins. seattle is a botched handoff and a 3rd and 20 stop away from being 7-2. for teams involved in close games every week luck will be the main factor determining the difference between 10-6 or 6-10.

teams that crush weak opposition don't have to worry about blown calls/fluky plays/or acts of god giving them an underserved loss.

[BillNye]

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1 Cowboys
2 Giants
3 Packers
4 Saints

Too much hate on Giants + Saints.

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Methinks you don't understand how these rankings work.

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I do, my rankings clearly arent the same style as his but mine are more to the point.

Regardless its rather obvious that the discrepancy between the Saints (4th on my list) to his (10th) is large no matter what type of style you use.

[VarlosZ]

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Predictive success and the numbers mean dick b/c the numbers plugged in are skewed as hell. Teams play much differently when up by 4 scores with 10 minutes left to play--this is why there aren't as many routes in the NFL...watch every game, soooooo many garbage scores late every week.

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They mean predictive success in future games, especially the playoffs. Look at the link that JoA posted. Championship teams are not defined by their ability to gut out close wins against good teams. They're defined by their ability to beat the [censored] out of inferior teams, leaving no doubt as to who is better in the process.

EDIT: Oh, wait. Are you saying that the numbers are skewed because garbage time TDs take some games from the Blowout coloumn to the Close Game column? If so, yeah, that's true, but I think you're greatly overstating the frequency of such an event. In a given season, how many garbage time scores do you really think (a) come about from the leading team playing soft and (b) change the margin of victory specifically from two scores to one? On average, a lot less than one per week, I'm sure.

Also, did you see my reply in that other thread where I said I was joking (about being offended that referenced some stats I used)?

2nd EDIT: Hmm, I seem to have misrepresented the criteria FO used to discriminate between categories of wins. The point still stands, though: there just aren't that many garbage time scores that will affect their criteria.

[BillNye]

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1 Cowboys
2 Giants
3 Packers
4 Saints

Too much hate on Giants + Saints.

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besides the fact that the rankings don't work this way, how can you rank the Giants above the Packers when the Packers beat the Giants,


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It was Week 2 everybody knows Giants had a slow start.
So do you rank the Chargers > Colts? They beat them, they are better!

No.
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hae played a tougher schedule, have a two-game better record, and after last week, are probably playing better football right now.


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Packers:
Week 1: vs Eagles (Win 16-13) - got very lucky, Eagles fumbled twice on returns? (Loss)

Weeek 2: vs Giants (Win 35-13) - Big Win (Win)

Week 3: vs Chargers (Win 31-24) - Didn't see the game so I'll give them credit for the nice win (Win).

Week 4: vs Vikings (Win 23-16) - Complete BS "incomplete pass" on a fumble that was returned for a TD, packers later scored after the non call due to a stupid ref blowing it dead. 14 pt turn around (Loss)

Week 5: vs Bears (Loss 27-20) - They Lost to a bad team (Loss)

Week 6: vs Redskins (Win 17-13) - They won, but S. Moss had to do everything humanly possible to make sure he blew it for the Skins, (lots of drops, 1 fumble returned for a TD + I think he did some other dumb stuff) (Loss)

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: vs Broncos (win 19-13) - BS Holding call brings back S. Young TD or was that a diff game [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img], regardless the Broncos Left Guard hit the ball out of cutler's hand while running on the 1yd line. That is AT LEAST 3 points, about 6pts of equity. They ended up going into OT, nvr would of been in OT if it wasn't for that fluke (Loss).

Week 9: vs Chiefs - Win 33-22 - Didn't see this game so idk, benefit of the doubt (Win)

Week 10: vs Vikings - Killed the Vikings (Win).

My guess at what their record would be if they played the season over and over to get rid of their sick good variance they have been having puts them at around 4-5. With good luck they could be 6-3. There is obviously a lot of variance in football everybody would agree with that. Yes some would say "they have found a way to win" or in some cases the Refs found a way to let them win. Either way they are this years Bears. Super lucky, and overrated. After all that I still have them ranked 3rd best in the NFC!
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Also, how can you rank a 4-5 team that just got beat handily at home by a consensus bottom three team in the #4 spot?

[/ QUOTE ] Well you seem to rank a team that deserves to be 4-5 (packers) at (2nd) place? in the NFC so 4th dosnt sound too crazy to me.