SLOW GAME: Welcome to the Bay Area (Werewolf, Northern CA edition)

[soah]

I'm not gonna do any work on this game until later tonight, but I'd appreciate it if some of you dudes would talk a bit about stephen. then I'll look over fnord and nich again later.

[antidan444]

If I have a chance I'll do a post-by-post breakdown on stephen ... most likely tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

The first couple days. it seemed he posted something that struck me wolfy, then something that felt really villagery. Lately he's struck me as more villagery than wolfy, but I haven't really taken a close look.

[antidan444]

ZOMG IT'S A TRADEMARK ANTIDAN LONG POST!!!

Let's take a look at Stephen, shall we?

DAY ONE

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IS there a minimum post requirement?



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You do need to vote at least once before nightfall (which

is a long, long time away).
Lynch Roundtower

and I'm all set.

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I'm pretty neutral on this.

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Also, the village would be well advised to

ignore my avatar this game. Really. No, I mean it. Put

the pitchfork down ...

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I'm keeping my eye on you.

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This is Stephen in response to me. Stephen totally owned

my ass when I was a wolf in the last long game I played

(ASX ... hell I don't know which it was). My first

reaction to this was "LOL." My second was, "This is the

exact kind of post I'd make here if I was a wolf."

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I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say

that he got two votes for it because it was pretty

[censored] wolfy.

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Actually, that's not why I voted for him at all. This is

his first long game (right?) and I wanted to see what

would happen if he caught a vote - less experienced

players give more info from early votes than more

experienced players.
I'm still deciding what I think of his "don't vote me,

i'm a villager" reply.

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An explanation of his RT vote. Villagery IMO.

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Of all the people with more than 1 vote, antidan

is a terrible choice.
I'm not exactly a great option either, but dan's pretty

obviously wearing his villager pants.

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Neutral on this one, I can see him making this exact post

as either role.

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I don't see why everyone thinks cueball is a

reasonable lynch today. He seems more like a reasonable

pile on because everyone else said so so it must be okay.

I'd rather see roundtower, or even Mets if that has a

chance. His logic on chuckles is terrible, and he has

to realized that it's 10x easier to lynch villager

chuckles day 1 than day 4+.

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Obviously mega-wolfy in hindsight, and stephen has

admitted such.

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mets doesn't drive lynches as a wolf



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This is a good point.
So put mets back on the villager pile. But that doesn't

mean I have to listen to him.

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I actually think this is really villagery, to flip-flop

on something that quick. As a wolf I think I'd just

ignore the point (that mets doesn't drive lynches as a

wolf) entirely and let everyone else decide if it's true

or not. I certainly wouldn't "put mets back on the

village pile" as a wolf, that doesn't make sense.

DAY TWO

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soah switching to roundtower from boj at

the last second makes soah look bad

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This is exactly the kind of thing that I'd always decide

made soah wolfy in the past - and I was dead wrong every

time because it's exactly the kind of thing he DOES NOT

DO as a wolf. Soah-wolf there drills cueball no

questions asked and would put the final nail in the

coffin himself. He knows cueball will show up wolf at

some point so why be the vote that killed a villager over

cueball?

I'm not voting soah.
More later.

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There's only two ways this post makes sense to me:

1. Soah and stephen are both wolves, and stephen is

protecting soah.

2. Stephen is a villager.

So, what are the odds that soah and stephen are the last

two wolves? 0.000001 percent?

This is the strongest piece of evidence I've seen so far

that stephen is a good guy.

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Okay my current villager list goes something like

dan/soah/roundtower + mostly mets

And I'm comfortable with Lynch Chuckles

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Villagery. I doubt wolf stephen jumps on chuckles' wagon

this early.

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Soah, what I meant was that I often read posts of yours where you defended this wolf or made a vote that looked like it was trying to save a wolf at a critical time of day or in some other way blatently tied yourself to someone who later turned up wolf. More than once you replied, in essence, "Do you think I'm that stupid?"

I also realized my last wolf game that I always seem to think of you as a wolf so I'm trying to fix that.

I think the wolves yesterday were probably mostly just quiet and watched what happened. Of the more vocal people, the one who looks the worst is me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] and I know I was just wrong, not a wolf.

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Overall, this post strikes me as villagery, too.

Anyway, right after this chuckles surrendered.



Hey, I'll take any chance I get to see this photo again!

DAY THREE

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Okay, so I'm really sucking this game, but I'm not sure I'm digging lynching roundtower just because books got eaten.
If books had been seer we would have been left with jack and squat; that's pretty clear to me, so maybe the wolves were making a "safe" kill - kill on tone, maybe he's seer, doesn't leave any clues to wolves, and he's a good candidate for having been peeked, depending on who really is seer.

Unfortunately I don't have any wolves to vote for but I'll dig around when I get time and try to figure out a good vote.

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I'm neutral on the first part of this, but the second part again strikes me as villagery. A wolf would already know a couple villagers they'd like to try to get lynched (or would be just fine and dandy lynching RT, especially when stephen suspected him d1).

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I voted for whichever of Sunday or Monday was winning as night ending tonight would be pretty bad for me.

soah's vote makes perfect sense and I'm way confused why anyone would question it. I'm pretty sure village can't let me live to endgame after my day 1 - my cueball comments were way more suspicious than soah's late vote to roundtower.

I thought roundtower likely to be a villager after the close vote with cueball, though, and I still think it. I know soah disagrees and thinks that there must have been 2 wolves with pressure for a wolf to get lynched. Does chuckles count as a 2nd wolf with pressure? Mets sure wanted him dead.

Anyways I think roundtower is an aimless lynch that isn't going to do much but lynch a villager.

No I still haven't reread to find wolves and that's why I want nightfall to wait so I can go find 'em. Might be tomorrow.

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Again, this strikes me as villagery.

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Of all the people with more than 1 vote, antidan is a terrible choice.

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I agree with this point. Village points for Stephen.

Change to Chuck

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Wow, wolf.

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I'm trying to do as little quoting as possible during my re-read to cut down on the traffic, but this had to be copied. aaron was earning wolf-points like crazy, but I'd be shocked if he made this post, to a wolf, about his post voting for ANOTHER wolf.
Mark him down as my next villager.

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I have to be careful here, because one of my weaknesses is clearing wolves for clearing villagers. But again, I think stephen is more likely to make this post as a villager than as a wolf.

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Okay, long post time.

I re-read and I have my thoughts together.

I mentioned above why aaronk probably is a villager.
I think cueball's vote of clown was an attempt to get a wagon started that wasn't a wolf. Thus I'm putting clown into Lean Village.
Bojtun had a lot of wolfy posts but one post that I'm really thinking he doesn't make as a wolf - it was about how if cueball is a wolf, then MDD looks bad, and if MDD is a wolf then chuckles looks bad. A wolf probably doesn't tie wolf-villager-wolf together like that, so I'm thinking he's a likely villager as well.
I will say that I'd rather lynch botjun than roundtower for the wdcbooks kill.

This leaves me with:
Villagers:
Dan
Soah
Mets

Lean village;
Roundtower
Aaronk
clown
bojtun

Unsure:
fcbl
fnord
HBE
mdd

Top Wolf:
nich

A few conclusions about relative roles:
Nich and roundtower are not wolves together. They might both be villagers together.
Nich and bojtun are also probably not wolves together.
If bojtun is a wolf, then MDD is not (or he would have tied wolf-wolf-wolf as incriminated together in one post - his whole wolf team? REALLY?)

This is mostly just day 1 reads as day 2 was a lot less interesting as it was mostly just a landslide on chuck.

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Yeah, you know what, I'm just going to stop my long post right here. This is a really good post and I simply do not believe stephen can make it as a wolf.

I'll be shocked if stephen is a wolf. I'm really, really glad I took the time to do this.

[antidan444]

I have no idea why the first half of that post was double-spaced. Sorry.

[antidan444]

Updated list:

Villagers - mets, soah, boj, stephen
Lean village - clown, aaron
??? - nich
Wolfy - fnord, MDD

[metsandfinsfan]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dan good work

[antidan444]

Hey mets, you remember my first turbo? That's good for a laugh or two these days LOL.

[soah]

in the back of my mind I just can't shake the feeling that chuck would have put up a fight if there wasn't some great benefit to the wolf team to having him die

[soah]

oh wait chuck had already ruined his ability to fake seer

even still though, why just concede

[antidan444]

Yeah his concession made no sense at all. This game has been full of WTF's but that was the biggest one of them all.