MAFIA

[shortline99]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is mafia, we'll find out when the real seers die/come out. We can lynch him then. Not only that, if he's real mafia, then tonight, while they COULD by an extra kill, doing so ensures that wdc dies tomorrow. So that is a benefit as well - they have to act AS IF he were seer, which buys us some extra time on their hit man kill.

If he is the real seer, we could lynch the consigliere tonight or tomorrow, and he could get a peek if rand() goes our way with the doctor. Even if we don't lynch the consig, that's $100/night the mafia can't use because they're blocking his peeks.

I really don't understand why you're so insistent on lynching him, when odds he's faking are so low.

[/ QUOTE ]
1) if they've bought any vests at all, they can't kill anyone anyway.

2) if he's consig, you're screwing us. if he's mafia, that's $100 more for the mafia every day we could be saving.

3) i said that if there's > 50% chance of faking, we have to lynch him. that's the math. if you disagree on the % chance, that's fine, but do you agree that if he is 50% likely or more to be faking, he needs to be lynched?

[Zurvan]

I think it has to be closer to 70% that he's faking. I think it's closer to 40%.

If he's consig, HE'S HANDED HIMSELF TO US. In 3-4 days, both seers will be out. We lynch him, and we get the most powerful mafia member. They can't use the extra money until tomorrow night, even though they have it now, unless they buy vests. But that doesn't matter, because our vig is only going to kill confirmed mafia anyway.

You're way underestimating the harm of lynching him as seer, and overestimating the value of lynching him as mafia. Even if he is the consig.

The odds that the mafia has spent even 1 penny on a vest is about 0.00000001%.

[shortline99]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he is the consig.

[/ QUOTE ]
okay, that's definitely not true.

[Zurvan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even if he is the consig.

[/ QUOTE ]
okay, that's definitely not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is.

Please, tell me what about my logic is wrong. Stop jumping up & down screaming that wdc is a wolf, and use your head.

[-zero-]

So I just re-read Horns posts today a couple times through and found one thing that seems wolfy. He starts off the day with many posts questioning wdc as the seer and saying that his story doesnt make any sense. Later, he says that he has an excellent read on wdc in general and has not seen anything wolfy from him and thinks he is the seer. This contradiction makes me very uncomfortable. Care to explain, Horn?

[aaronk56]

I generally agree with Zurvan, though I would put the percentage of Books faking at around 30%, which is a big drop from what I thought first thing this morning. I think the vigilante is in a tough spot because it is unlikely he could kill a "confirmed mafioso" unless the Consigliere is dead. The Consigliere could just buy the bad guy a vest once he is confirmed.

I also think, contrary to most people, that if Boiler is the vigilante he should take an early shot because the doctor has to decide whether to protect him or to protect Books, assuming the doctor believes both of their role claims.

[shortline99]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even if he is the consig.

[/ QUOTE ]
okay, that's definitely not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is.

Please, tell me what about my logic is wrong. Stop jumping up & down screaming that wdc is a wolf, and use your head.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not screaming he's a wolf. I'm screaming that there's over a 50% chance he's a wolf. If we let him live, and he's regular mafia, every day they gain $100 dollars. If we let him live, and he's consig, they retain the ability to buy things. If we let him live, and he's seer, every day the mafia loses $100.

If we kill him, and he's regular mafia, the mafia loses a member and $100 per day. If we kill him, and he's consig, we've got a huge head start on things. If we kill him, and he's a seer, the mafia doesn't have to kill him at night or spend $100 to block him.

If there's > 50% he's mafia, we should kill him.

[shortline99]

either way, you all disagree with me, so in total the village doesn't feel it's > 50%.

so aaron, please.

[Fishmonger]

[ 4 ] aaronk votes Morbo
[ 1 ] boiler votes Hornacek
[ 0 ] fnord votes soah
[ 0 ] GT1T votes soah
[ 3 ] Hornacek votes boiler
[ 0 ] IY votes
[ 0 ] KM votes Hornacek
[ 0 ] Magra votes
[ 0 ] MDoranD votes soah
[ 1 ] Morbo votes
[ 1 ] OH votes soah
[ 0 ] Shortline votes aaronk
[ 5 ] soah votes aaronk
[ 0 ] tokyo votes OH
[ 0 ] wdcbooks votes
[ 0 ] WillMagic votes soah
[ 0 ] xorbie votes aaronk
[ 0 ] zero votes aaronk
[ 0 ] Zurvan votes Hornacek

Please complain if there are any inaccuriacies. Hollaback POG.

[xorbie]

anyone else starting to like shorty/getthere?