NCAA College Football Week 11 -- Rank'em

[BobJoeJim]

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who gave west virginia a number one vote..lol at that

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Rich Rodriguez has a vote...

[MyTurn2Raise]

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So it's impossible to be the #1 team if you haven't played a top 30 team? If the New England Patriots played Kansas' schedule and won every game 150-0, you'd disqualify them from the number one spot because of their schedule? Obviously Kansas hasn't been anywhere near that impressive, but you've used enough hyperbole in your remarks in this thread that I feel justified in returning the favor.

As for the cherry picked "top 30" cutoff, Kansas does have road wins against the #39, #48, #50, and #52 teams in Sagarin's rankings and... oh yeah, is ranked #1 in Sagarin's ELO-Chess rankings which don't account for margin of victory and look only at record and schedule strength. Are LSU and Oregon better than Kansas? Yeah, probably. But they aren't undefeated, Kansas is, and based on the teams' respective performances over the course of the season, I don't think they're *much* better, if at all. As I've said before, as an Oregon fan, I would rather play LSU in the title game (if we get there) than Kansas, because I think LSU is more beatable for us.

Kansas doesn't deserve to be dismissed. Fortunately it doesn't matter because they still have the opportunity to prove themselves to the doubters with wins, or force me to reevaluate them with losses. Either way, it will shake out in the end.

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no one wants to play LSU in the superdome

it's home away from home

that team has got all its recent glory playing 'home' bowl games

[BigSoonerFan]

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So it's impossible to be the #1 team if you haven't played a top 30 team? If the New England Patriots played Kansas' schedule and won every game 150-0, you'd disqualify them from the number one spot because of their schedule?

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Yes, I would, because then we would have ZERO evidence that they could beat a good team.

Fortunately the NFL doesn't have the idiotic (non)playoff system that college football has.

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Sagarin's ELO-Chess rankings which don't account for margin of victory and look only at record and schedule strength.

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Yes, it just looks at wins....with little regard for the opponent.

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Are LSU and Oregon better than Kansas? Yeah, probably. But they aren't undefeated, Kansas is, and based on the teams' respective performances over the course of the season, I don't think they're *much* better, if at all.

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I believe they are, but we don't know, because Kansas has not played ANYONE in the Top 30, much less Top 10. Oregon and LSU have, so we have some idea how they can compete with top tier teams.

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As I've said before, as an Oregon fan, I would rather play LSU in the title game (if we get there) than Kansas, because I think LSU is more beatable for us.

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I don't understand how that makes any sense.

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Kansas doesn't deserve to be dismissed.

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I don't dismiss them, just any claim that they are #1.

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Fortunately it doesn't matter because they still have the opportunity to prove themselves to the doubters with wins, or force me to reevaluate them with losses. Either way, it will shake out in the end.

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Doubt is a strong word but I guess it's accurate. We just don't know.

[BigSoonerFan]

For the record, I'm not claiming OU is a great team. They've got a tough game with Tech left and definitely will have a tough conference championship game, whoever they play.

[iggymcfly]

Well, ELO-Chess does take SOS into account, but if you want to compare it to the predictor, just tell me which list looks more accurate:

<u>ELO-Chess</u>
1. Kansas
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Arizona State
5. Missouri
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
8. West Virginia
9. Virginia Tech
10. Georgia
11. Florida
12. Northern Iowa
13. Clemson
14. Boston College
15. USC
16. Tennessee
17. Virginia
18. Illinois
19. North Dakota State
20. Connecticut

Hmm, at first glance, I'd say this system tends to overrate undefeated teams who are somewhat untested since they don't have any negative comparisons to bring them down.

<u>Predictor</u>
1. Oregon
2. LSU
3. Kansas
4. Oklahoma
5. Ohio State
6. Florida
7. West Virginia
8. USC
9. Cincinnatti
10. Arizona State
11. South Florida
12. Clemson
13. Missouri
14. Texas
15. Boise State
16. Georgia
17. Virginia Tech
18. Texas Tech
19. Penn State
20. Kentucky

OK, so gimmick offenses that run up a lot of points against weak opponents are slightly overrepresented here, but for the most part, the rankings are pretty good. I'm sure a lot of people won't like Cincinnatti in the Top Ten, but they'll probably have less of an issue with it when the Bearcats beat WVU this week.

[mutigers5591]

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Well, ELO-Chess does take SOS into account, but if you want to compare it to the predictor, just tell me which list looks more accurate:

<u>ELO-Chess</u>
1. Kansas
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Arizona State
5. Missouri
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
8. West Virginia
9. Virginia Tech
10. Georgia
11. Florida
12. Northern Iowa
13. Clemson
14. Boston College
15. USC
16. Tennessee
17. Virginia
18. Illinois
19. North Dakota State
20. Connecticut

Hmm, at first glance, I'd say this system tends to overrate undefeated teams who are somewhat untested since they don't have any negative comparisons to bring them down.

<u>Predictor</u>
1. Oregon
2. LSU
3. Kansas
4. Oklahoma
5. Ohio State
6. Florida
7. West Virginia
8. USC
9. Cincinnatti
10. Arizona State
11. South Florida
12. Clemson
13. Missouri
14. Texas
15. Boise State
16. Georgia
17. Virginia Tech
18. Texas Tech
19. Penn State
20. Kentucky

OK, so gimmick offenses that run up a lot of points against weak opponents are slightly overrepresented here, but for the most part, the rankings are pretty good. I'm sure a lot of people won't like Cincinnatti in the Top Ten, but they'll probably have less of an issue with it when the Bearcats beat WVU this week.

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just out of curiosity in that 2nd predictor what makes it rank missouri so low...i dont know the formula im sure its complex but if tech is 18 cuz they score alot of points and whatnot why is missouri so low it has a very high scoring offense as well (30+ points in every single game)

[BobJoeJim]

Obviously I think the predictor is a better ranking system, if you're trying to decide who the best team is. As I've said I do think that LSU and Oregon are better than Kansas (in the non-head-to-head sense of who would have the best record if college football were a 120 team round robin where everyone played everyone and all games were on a neutral site). I think in that format, LSU would have the best record of any team in the country, Oregon #2, and Kansas, Oklahoma, or Ohio State would be #3. The reason I would rather see Oregon play LSU than Kansas is matchup related, though MT2R makes a good point that with the game in the Superdome we'd probably be better off against Kansas. I think more teams would beat Oregon than LSU in a round robin, but I think Oregon beats LSU more frequently than they beat Kansas in a heads up series.

LSU has a great defense, particularly the front seven, but the secondary can be a bit vulnerable to vertical passing, which Oregon excels at. Also, while the run defense is the strength, that is largely due to tremendous aggression and pursuit, which from what I've seen leaves them vulnerable to misdirection running plays which happen to be the key to Oregon's great rushing attack this year. I think the LSU defense is uniquely designed to be as easy as possible for Oregon's attack to pick apart, despite the insane level of talent on the Tiger side. Meanwhile, LSU's offense doesn't scare me at all. Oh no, Matt Flynn. Sorry, but I'm just not concerned about him. And please, don't misinterperet any of this, just because I think Oregon has the edge head to head does not mean I don't think LSU is the best team in the country.

[pwnsall]

Using the predictor isn't winning at OSU&gt; beating va tech at home? A 6 point swing for middle ranked teams is huge for their standing.

[BobJoeJim]

BTW, did anyone see this hilariously subtle dig at timekeepers by Ivan Maisel in ESPN.com's College GameDay Final article?

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Some people believe Mizzou's Jeremy Maclin is the fastest player in college football. Others say its LSU's Trindon Holliday, the NCAA 100-meter sprint runner-up. But I say it's Oklahoma freshman DeMarco Murray, and I can prove it. Baylor scored with 1:00 left in the first half Saturday. Murray returned the ensuing kickoff 91 yards, and the official box score says Murray scored with :54 left before halftime. Is the 91-yard sprint an official NCAA event?

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[BigSoonerFan]

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BTW, did anyone see this hilariously subtle dig at timekeepers by Ivan Maisel in ESPN.com's College GameDay Final article?

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Some people believe Mizzou's Jeremy Maclin is the fastest player in college football. Others say its LSU's Trindon Holliday, the NCAA 100-meter sprint runner-up. But I say it's Oklahoma freshman DeMarco Murray, and I can prove it. Baylor scored with 1:00 left in the first half Saturday. Murray returned the ensuing kickoff 91 yards, and the official box score says Murray scored with :54 left before halftime. Is the 91-yard sprint an official NCAA event?

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It's even better than that. He touched it at the 9, ran back to the 6, dodged a few guys and then took off. All in 6 seconds!