Tigers trade for Renteria

[ADLinden]

As an Indians fan, this sucks. Sigh...

[Vyse]

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In fact, as the Rosters stand right now, the Tigers are the best team in the AL.

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I thought you were being reasonable, but come on. If you can't be reasonable this is a waste of both of our time.

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YOu realize A-Rod is no longer a Yankee, right? You realize the Red Sox are also without a 3B? You realize the Angels just aren't as good as the Tigers, right? I suppose you could argue the Indians are better right now since their 2008 roster is basically in tact, but I doubt it. No, as the rosters stand right now, the Tigers are the best.

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lol @ the "as rosters stand right now." My point is that's a laughable qualifier. Wtf so because the Tigers made the first good offseason move they're the best team in the AL because obv other players are filing for FA so the Red Sox have an eight-man lineup? Wtf? Do you see how ridiculous it is what you're saying? It's purely argumentative. Who are likely to be the best teams entering 08 in the AL? Not the Tigers. You know that, I know that, so don't say purposefully idiotic things otherwise you're wasting your time and I'm not going to bother.

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Renteria has been better than Guillen defensively and most importantly projects to be better in 2008. Using BP's stats, Guillen was very good at first base in a small sample (32 games), better than Casey. Renteria is about equal with Casey on offense, maybe slightly better. They definitely improved their team over last season, and let's not act like Casey didn't make $4MM or so.

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Irrelevant sample size you're only quoting simply because it supports your argument. Even if it didn't support it I would be wrong to bring it up because it's, again, totally irrelevant and should not even be considered. lol @ Guillen's 36 games at 1B.

I can use that against you, you know. Guillen's .283 EqA means way way way more at the second-weakest offensive position than the strongest. Since he can play 1B part-time with amazing defense and be super-amazingly insanely valuable, play him at 1B 1-2 a week to protect his knees and otherwise keep him at SS and get super-awesome-Guillen-man. 1B is super easy to fill, and when Guillen's not there play Sheffield or Thames or sign a platoon guy or trade for a platoon guy or the billion other options you have to get league-average production out of 1B and super incredible production out of SS for a cheaper price than Renteria and more flexibility.

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I think you underestimate Carlos Guillen's offensive worth. His EQA over the last four years, .299, .316, .291, .316. That .291 was an injury plagued year. I don't know what the average 1b is, but I doubt it's over .300.

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You mean .283, .301, .277 and .305 Mr. Adjusting For All-Time (plz stop cherry picking stats). The roughly average line for 1B last season was .275/.356/.462 (I say roughly because NL 1B were > than AL 1B and they had 1500 or so more AB and I just divided the two stats by 2 so the real line is a little worse than that. But it's obv dumb to just take the NL or AL line so it's better than nothing).

So we're talking about an 800 OPS or so being average for 1B. Last year Guillen's was 859. But the average stat line for SS was a 735 OPS, so Guillen's much better over the average SS than over the average 1B. Will Guillen's improved D at 1B make up the remaining 65 points or whatever of OPS over the course of the season? I doubt it, but I'm basically assuming Guillen is a league average 1B defender, and I'd argue there's a greater chance he's worse than league average than better, so I'm just meeting in the middle and saying whatever and making him average.

Basically my point is it's about 100% positive Guillen is going to be a worse valuable player at 1B than at SS. And they really don't HAVE to move a guy who has played 150+ games the past two seasons.

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Haven't we seen the Sheffield to 1b experiment? If he could handle first, don't you think he'd still be a Yankee?

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We really haven't seen Sheffield handle 1B. It's not like he's had a whole offseason knowing he's going to be a 1B or whatever. If Scott Hatteberg can be made into a competent 1B than so can Sheffield, it's not a big deal. (Nevermind that it'll simultaneously help his health too.)

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Mike Jacobs is the best you can trade for? You might as well go with Meinalkgjdjdsz and get the glove.

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Actually I was naming random names off my head. There are too many to name but the point is a simple one: acquiring a league-average 1B is not hard.

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Guillen to first is not necessarily optimal, but if it keeps him healthy and happy, it's a move that's worth making when you can get a quality MLB shortstop for a B+ CF prospect that's two to three years away and a pitcher that has no place on your team and has #4 upside.

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Again, I never said it wasn't a good deal for the Tigers. It's a good deal for the Tigers, but LMFAO @ you making it out for it to be a great deal and now the Tigers are the best team in the AL because the Yankees and Red Sox will field an eight-position lineup and whatever.

This move improves the Tigers by a couple of wins this year. But if the Braves wisely invest the saved money from Rent this year into, say, Glavine like they are expected to do, then the Braves get what, a 5 win jump? And win on the future, too. Hence, great trade for Braves, good trade for Tigers.

[rwperu34]

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@ the "as rosters stand right now." My point is that's a laughable qualifier. Wtf so because the Tigers made the first good offseason move they're the best team in the AL because obv other players are filing for FA so the Red Sox have an eight-man lineup? Wtf? Do you see how ridiculous it is what you're saying? It's purely argumentative. Who are likely to be the best teams entering 08 in the AL? Not the Tigers. You know that, I know that, so don't say purposefully idiotic things otherwise you're wasting your time and I'm not going to bother.


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The Tigers downside is #5, and they have upside to be #1. Thier most likely "place" in the pecking order is going to be equal with the Yankees and Indians, ahead of the Angels, and behind the Red Sox. That's a far cry from;

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need more of a makeover to be the fourth-best team in the AL next year

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But if the Braves wisely invest the saved money from Rent this year into, say, Glavine like they are expected to do, then the Braves get what, a 5 win jump?

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YOu mean the Tom Glavine that's going to project to about 3 wins next year? Explain the math to me again? Jurrjens is basically a 2 win player, and the Braves have plenty of 1.5 win players to fill the same slot, and they're going to upgrade to a 3 win Glavine with the money saved and that somehow adds up to five wins in 2007? No, it looks to me like if they sign Glavine they improve by 1.5 wins (maximum) less the difference between Renteria and Escobar while the Tigers have improved by 3.0 wins MINIMUM (Renteria to Eckstein). If they missed on Eckstein, they could end up with a replacement level shortstop netting the Tigers SIX wins!!! Or giving a similar deal for Jack Wilson, who is probably not as good as Renteria, although cheaper. The Tigers make out much better for 2008. This has to be the case since the Braves are obviously doing better on future value and this deal is regarded as a win-win by just about everybody.

It looks like the Braves might be throwing some cash the Tigers way as well. An even bigger win for the Tigers if that's true.

[Vyse]

Yeah, project to 3 wins... over what? Negative two wins? Five win gain? Yeah, that one. A league average pitcher for 200 IP is WAAAAAY more than the Braves had last year. Smoltz + Hudson + Glavine + James + Jurrjens gives them two great ones and five average ones, with a little actual depth this time around. That already makes them a playoff team and maybe the best team in the NL. Look at all the negative VORP they got from random [censored] starters:

Kyle Davies: -5.1
Jo-Jo Reyes: -5.8
Lance Cormier: -8.2
Mark Redman: -15.1
Anthony Lerew: -2.3
Buddy Carlyle: 2.4
Jeff Bennett: 3.6

Total: 66 starts, -30.5 VORP

Glavine alone had a 28.1 VORP. Which is nearly a six win difference. Give Glavine and Jurrjens combined 40 VORP and we have a seven win upgrade over last season.

Rent's been worth about 6.5 wins to the Braves in his time there. All Escobar has to be worth is four wins and we're looking at a big upgrade to the team for cheap.

[rwperu34]

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Yeah, project to 3 wins... over what? Negative two wins? Five win gain? Yeah, that one. A league average pitcher for 200 IP is WAAAAAY more than the Braves had last year. Smoltz + Hudson + Glavine + James + Jurrjens gives them two great ones and five average ones, with a little actual depth this time around. That already makes them a playoff team and maybe the best team in the NL. Look at all the negative VORP they got from random [censored] starters:

Kyle Davies: -5.1
Jo-Jo Reyes: -5.8
Lance Cormier: -8.2
Mark Redman: -15.1
Anthony Lerew: -2.3
Buddy Carlyle: 2.4
Jeff Bennett: 3.6

Total: 66 starts, -30.5 VORP

Glavine alone had a 28.1 VORP. Which is nearly a six win difference. Give Glavine and Jurrjens combined 40 VORP and we have a seven win upgrade over last season.

Rent's been worth about 6.5 wins to the Braves in his time there. All Escobar has to be worth is four wins and we're looking at a big upgrade to the team for cheap.

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The problem is, you can't have Jurrjens project positive and JoJo Reyes project negative because JoJo is a better prospect and is a year more advanced. I thought we were all set on Smoltz, Hudson, James, and JoJo as the top four, and the Braves looking for a #5. Carlyle didn't outproduce his periphs and netted 1.1 wins. On top of that, guys you've never heard of Kelvin Villa and James Parr project less than a win behind Jurrjens could be ready by the break. Then you add the Thomas Hansen factor, and the fact that he'll be starting the year in AA which means he could rocket into the second half rotation with better stuff and more upside and you've got a lot of potential for the #5 slot in the rotation. Glavine adds about 1.5 wins in expectation over that group and reduces the variance big time. If Jurrjens takes the spot, then he'll add a half a win and have more variance than Glavine and less then the others. There is a very good chance that if the Braves sign Glavine that Jurrjens starts the year in AAA. When I did my Tigers prospect list, that is exactly where I had Jurrjens listed, although he was kind of a tweener.

Final tally for two teams on the playoff bubble in 2008-
Braves-1.5 wins less Renteria to Escobar, a final tally of around 1.2 wins gained.
Tigers-3.0 wins minimum, more likely about 4.0 in total EV depending on the replacement shortstop.

[rwperu34]

And I'm still waiting for that long list of first baseman that are better than Carlos Guillen AND available! FWIW, Guillen's .869 OPS in a down year would have rated him 9th among eligible MLB 1B in 2007.

[Kos13]

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as the Rosters stand right now, the Tigers are the best team in the AL.

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I LOL'ed.

[Jack of Arcades]

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And I'm still waiting for that long list of first baseman that are better than Carlos Guillen AND available! FWIW, Guillen's .869 OPS in a down year would have rated him 9th among eligible MLB 1B in 2007.

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It's not coming up with a first baseman better than Guillen, but coming up with a 1B+SS combo better than Guillen/Renteria.

Renteria will NOT be good next year. Last year he got lucky with a .332 average and still topped out at being as good as Carlos Guillen. Guillen at 1B is going to be a major down grade over Guillen at SS.

[kkcountry]

i've been firmly in the "keep guillen at SS as long as humanly possible" camp ever since he played his first game a first, but i can't say i'm disappointed with this trade.

i would have much rather seen them slap a platoon together at first with whatever was available out there (what's the best hitting platoon they could have put out there via the system and free agency?) but they did get edgar renteria for basically surplus prospects.

i think jar jar is a fraud (everybody brings up that shutout he started against cleveland, but he got hit hard that outing, just right at people) and just isn't cut out for the AL. also, neither him or hernandez had a wide open route to a spot in the rotation or center field in detroit. i would have liked to see a deal get done without dealing hernandez though, i think he would have been a nice chip to have at the deadline.

[Vyse]

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The problem is, you can't have Jurrjens project positive and JoJo Reyes project negative

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It's too bad I didn't project negatively for Reyes, isn't it? I said the Braves had negative three wins from the back two of their rotation (33 starts each). If Glavine and Jurrjens net 40 WARP, that's a 7 win upgrade. It doesn't have to be JUST those two; Jurrjens and Glavine alone gives them 1) better options just for 2007, really, and more importantly 2) gives them league-average depth behind their starting five when injuries strike, not BELOW replacement-level depth when injuries strike. So therefore as a whole the 66 starts their #4 and #5 pitchers made this year will be 66 starts of something resembling league-average productivity.

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because JoJo is a better prospect and is a year more advanced. I thought we were all set on Smoltz, Hudson, James, and JoJo as the top four, and the Braves looking for a #5.

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No, the Braves are looking for two 2008-ready league-average SPs. Jurrjens is better for 08 for the Braves because minor league starters who have low walks / HR rather than high BB / Ks usually adapt the league quicker (albeit with much lower upsides).

No one's saying that if everything stayed exactly the same the Braves would lose 3 wins from the last two spots in their rotation. They can't help but be better than that by default. But if they go with Carlyle and Reyes as 4 and 5, then what happens when one injury strikes? The same thing as last year. Now when injuries strike they have some fascimile of league-average ... which is where the value is won.

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On top of that, guys you've never heard of Kelvin Villa and James Parr project less than a win behind Jurrjens could be ready by the break. Then you add the Thomas Hansen factor, and the fact that he'll be starting the year in AA which means he could rocket into the second half rotation with better stuff and more upside and you've got a lot of potential for the #5 slot in the rotation. Glavine adds about 1.5 wins in expectation over that group and reduces the variance big time. If Jurrjens takes the spot, then he'll add a half a win and have more variance than Glavine and less then the others. There is a very good chance that if the Braves sign Glavine that Jurrjens starts the year in AAA. When I did my Tigers prospect list, that is exactly where I had Jurrjens listed, although he was kind of a tweener.

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I'm really starting to believe you're just going on and on just to play Devil's Advocate or something. You're goign through all of this for no reason whatsoever. It's quite simple:

Braves: -3 wins from 66 starts last year
Braves 08: Projected +4 wins from No. 4/5 in rotation this year

Net: 7 wins