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#61
10-13-2007, 11:37 AM
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Re: Simple TPTK hand.
well, 1 hand is more than zero hands, and i have villain on zero hands that are taking this line for value that are worse than gobbos
so, combine w/ the dry board texture, you have to ask yourself for 150bbs how often he is running a bluff in a 1k satellite tournament early. with a read, you have to go with it. my read is that the turn is an obv fold because in a 1k sat early people arent pulling huge moves, nor are they Vbetting worse ever. 
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#62
10-13-2007, 12:08 PM
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Re: Simple TPTK hand.
[ QUOTE ]
well, 1 hand is more than zero hands, and i have villain on zero hands that are taking this line for value that are worse than gobbos so, combine w/ the dry board texture, you have to ask yourself for 150bbs how often he is running a bluff in a 1k satellite tournament early. with a read, you have to go with it. my read is that the turn is an obv fold because in a 1k sat early people arent pulling huge moves, nor are they Vbetting worse ever. [/ QUOTE ] Aren't A9 and A2 in Villain's range as well? Which makes it 3 hands, or 15 hands if you're counting combinations. And AK is not impossible.
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#63
10-13-2007, 01:16 PM
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Re: Simple TPTK hand.
Villain isn't check/potting the flop with A9.
A2 sure, he could have that. Seems reasonable. Highly doubt he has AK. I still think, like I said above, 222 is his most likely holding. Even if he is a spew donkey idiot, this isn't the spot that spew donkey idiots get out of line. I think I tried telling Gobbo this last night and he didn't really know what I was saying. Like, a spew donkey isn't going to complete air bluff this board by check/potting, potting turn. That just isn't the line that they take. They'd be FAR more likely to bet/bet/bet. I don't know I can't really explain what I'm thinking very well but I'm 99% sure this is a fold because you're behind.
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#64
10-13-2007, 01:37 PM
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Re: Simple TPTK hand.
[ QUOTE ]
wow, well cheese monster is delegator on stars if that means anything to you. he is batshit crazy but seems to win a lot of big tournaments. holla@yoboy brought up a hand in aruba involving delegator in the wcoop main event. my advice to him was the smae as it would be here, pretty much never ever fold to him. [/ QUOTE ] I thought this hand was a pretty easy fold until this new info. Now I think its pretty interesting.
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#67
10-13-2007, 05:52 PM
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Re: Simple TPTK hand.
Goggles, did you even read what I said to you last night? With no new information obviously this is a fold.
RESULTS: I FOLDED THE TURN. However, with the new information of that hand, how could anyone think this is a fold? I received a message earlier telling me who it was and, in short, 'don't fold to him.' I'm a big fan of mysterious strangers, so how could I not listen to him? Also lol baltostar.
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#68
10-13-2007, 09:32 PM
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Re: Simple TPTK hand.
Balto, i didn't abuse you in the first thread you posted in. My words were something along the line of "you're wrong here dude, relax and listen to these guys and they will steer you in the right direction."
That's pretty much what I'm saying here as well, but also to stop trolling. I think the reason your continuing to get abuse is because you spout things like: "The truth about these boards is that most on here do not think very deeply about their game. They can't really explain why they do what they do because they don't really understand it. And this opens their risk window wide-up as online MTTs continue to evolve." to a group that contains some of the very best poker minds online. Grabbing a few screen names and pulling up OPR will confirm this.
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#69
10-14-2007, 07:28 PM
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Re: Simple TPTK hand.
[ QUOTE ]
Because I mean, think about it.... if villain checkraises and then proceeds to lead 1/2 to 2/3 pot again, I think in villain's eyes thats an even scarier line. So they will say to themselves "How can I get the most from AK/AQ" and promptly decide the best course of action is to play the hand in a manner that is weird (instapot) and betsizing that is weird (pot). [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly why the trend for dynamic hand reading in today's game is decidedly downwards and will continue that way. There are a large and growing number of skilled players out there who know how to look like a donk and trap expert players into stacking off in a marginal situation precisely because they overvalue their hand reading skills relative to reasonable expectations for the specific scenario independent of reads. This is what I am referring to when I talk about the continued heavy branching of the player profile tree. You can be cavalier (like gobboboy) and ignore the many signals that the game is changing or you can start recognizing that putting opponents on hands is a skill of downtrending (but still significant) value. If an expert player's primary skill is dynamic hand reading, then maintaining or increasing your edge most probably must involve exploring broadening your game with other techniques, such as having goals and reasonable expectations for various scenarios.
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