CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8) - Page 7

NajdorfDefense · #61 10-07-2007, 06:45 PM

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I went to put a unit on Auburn +3, and they changed it to 2.5 on the confirm screen, and I think to myself, you know what - 0-4 on Auburn - I think I'll just sit on the sidelines this week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Wait for DrBob to go other way!

bills217 · #62 10-07-2007, 06:46 PM

I would have got a unit on Kentucky +10.5, but everyone seemed real down on Kentucky after Thursday and I thought it might get better. Guess not.

Austiger · #63 10-07-2007, 06:46 PM

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Vandy didn't compete very well against Alabama or Auburn, and UGA is probably better than both.

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You're half right. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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Well, UGA beat Bama at Bama, and Auburn still lost to Mississippi State (!) and South Florida, at home. I don't put much into this week's UGA/UT blowout - Tennessee blocked a punt, got a long TD on a trick play, and by that time it was out of hand.

I'm no UGA fanboy - I think they're pretty mediocre - but they're no worse than a push with Bama/Auburn, who both easily handled Vandy - that's the only point I was making.

Weren't you extremely pessimistic about Auburn's chances against Mississippi State? Did they like make some sort of trade or something since then that has changed your perspective? Of course they've been playing better, but I don't see what is fundamentally different about them - they have Lester but are also minus Groves - annnnnnd they still have Brandon Cox!

Edit: Well, it does look like a fairly dominant performance by Tennessee in the box score, but having watched the first 20 minutes or so, it just seemed like things really snowballed on UGA. I'm not massively re-evaluating them downward or UT upward.

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Auburn's defense has been great all year. Our offense was Notre Dame-esque in our first three games, thus my pessimism. Obviously that is not the case anymore. Is it b/c of the freshmen O-linemen that had their redshirts removed after MSU? Whatever the reason, you can't really cap Auburn games based on the MSU performance anymore. Auburn drove the ball extremely well against Florida (4 10-play drives, plus another where we fumbled on the first play after a 15-yard run) and that was validated against Vandy (1st half total yards was like 350-65 or something.) I think Groves will play against Arkansas, although our center is out now.

UGA got blown out by UT. I don't think you can sugar-coat that. They also lost at home to SC and the Bama win is looking not so great anymore. I'd take Auburn over UGA in a heartbeat right now on a neutral field.

Edit- FWIW Sagarin predictor has Auburn currently -9 over UGA.

pirateboy · #64 10-07-2007, 06:51 PM

The UGA-UT game was a snowball type of loss for UGA. UT consistently beat them in the trenches for 60 minutes. Sure, the blocked punt was big, but there were 30 yards of penalties tacked onto UT after the block, so it was still a 60 yard-ish drive. The trick play was the only fluky thing in the game. Tennessee just outclassed UGA.

bills217 · #65 10-07-2007, 06:52 PM

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Vandy didn't compete very well against Alabama or Auburn, and UGA is probably better than both.

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You're half right. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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Well, UGA beat Bama at Bama, and Auburn still lost to Mississippi State (!) and South Florida, at home. I don't put much into this week's UGA/UT blowout - Tennessee blocked a punt, got a long TD on a trick play, and by that time it was out of hand.

I'm no UGA fanboy - I think they're pretty mediocre - but they're no worse than a push with Bama/Auburn, who both easily handled Vandy - that's the only point I was making.

Weren't you extremely pessimistic about Auburn's chances against Mississippi State? Did they like make some sort of trade or something since then that has changed your perspective? Of course they've been playing better, but I don't see what is fundamentally different about them - they have Lester but are also minus Groves - annnnnnd they still have Brandon Cox!

Edit: Well, it does look like a fairly dominant performance by Tennessee in the box score, but having watched the first 20 minutes or so, it just seemed like things really snowballed on UGA. I'm not massively re-evaluating them downward or UT upward.

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Auburn's defense has been great all year. Our offense was Notre Dame-esque in our first three games, thus my pessimism. Obviously that is not the case anymore. Is it b/c of the freshmen O-linemen that had their redshirts removed after MSU? Whatever the reason, you can't really cap Auburn games based on the MSU performance anymore. Auburn drove the ball extremely well against Florida (4 10-play drives, plus another where we fumbled on the first play after a 15-yard run) and that was validated against Vandy (1st half total yards was like 350-65 or something.) I think Groves will play against Arkansas, although our center is out now.

UGA got blown out by UT. I don't think you can sugar-coat that. They also lost at home to SC and the Bama win is looking not so great anymore. I'd take Auburn over UGA in a heartbeat right now on a neutral field.

Edit- FWIW Sagarin predictor has Auburn currently -9 over UGA.

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You make a compelling case. I may even concede Auburn is slightly better than UGA on a neutral at the moment, after looking at it more closely.

But - didn't UGA also beat Auburn by like 100 at Auburn last year, when Auburn was better and UGA was worse? If you're gonna give credence to 07 UGA/UT, you gotta look at that game too.

bills217 · #66 10-07-2007, 06:55 PM

I guess this is a good week to be low on cash at BookMaker because everything is mostly where I thought it would be.

Hopefully said cash shortage won't be a problem next week after BC beats Notre Dame by 30+. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Mediocre_Player · #67 10-07-2007, 07:01 PM

wow looks like everyone in this thread is all in on BC ... can't blame you @ -12

Austiger · #68 10-07-2007, 07:01 PM

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But - didn't UGA also beat Auburn by like 100 at Auburn last year, when Auburn was better and UGA was worse? If you're gonna give credence to 07 UGA/UT, you gotta look at that game too.

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True, but I watch all of our games and our offense has not looked this good since '05. I was worried that it was a fluke, but the Vandy game has me convinced. Take the over in the Arkansas game when the totals come out.

Austiger · #69 10-07-2007, 07:06 PM

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I would have got a unit on Kentucky +10.5, but everyone seemed real down on Kentucky after Thursday and I thought it might get better. Guess not.

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Do you think Kentucky can hang with LSU physically? You have to love the timing for Kentucky to catch them on a letdown. I just wonder if they can hang in there all game. SC seemed to out-hit them the other night.

NajdorfDefense · #70 10-07-2007, 07:12 PM

At home, I think they'll be physically up for the game, LSU will be as beat up if not more so after the war v Fla. Regardless, the 10.5 makes up for some shortcomings.