King Yao-ing College Football Season Wins

[GoldenBears]

Not a real conference anymore?

Big East went 5-0 in bowls last year
Big East has won its BCS bowl against ACC champion and SEC champion last 2 years
Big East has 37.5% of its conference in the top 16 and 50% of its conference in the top 30.


Big East is not the hardest conference to win, since there are only 8 teams, nor is it the most difficult to go undefeated in, since you only have to play 7 conference games (versus 9 in the Pac 10 or 8 + 1 in the others)... but it does have the highest concentration of elite teams.

Overall Pac-10 and SEC are clearly #1 and #2, ranked either way depending on how you look at it. (Pac-10 is deeper and has more good teams, SEC has more bad teams but probably more national title contenders etc.)

Big-10, Big-12, ACC are all medicore. Big-10 is weak as hell this year and showed how overrated they were last year in bowls. Big-12 south is sick, Big-12 north is awful, as usual. ACC should be better, but has just been so awful the last few years it's hard to give them any credit.


SEC
PAC
Big-12
Big East
ACC
Big 10

[DannyOcean_]

SEC rulezzzzzzzzzzzzz

[GoldenBears]

SEC last year > SEC this year

Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Auburn will be worse
Bama, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vandy will be better
Georgia will be about the same...

Ole Miss, MSU will still suck.

SEC and Pac-10 minus SC are very similar this year with a huge abundance of very good teams that are going to beat up on each other... obviously SEC has 9 good teams and Pac only has 6 or 7, but PAC is also a smaller conf. and has USC... and ALL of the PAC teams have to play each other, nobody gets ducked.


I wish I could watch an SEC/PAC-10 challenge like they do ACC/Big-10 in basketball... there would be so many great games.

Instead, the ones we've manged to get have been boring, with USC beating Arkansas by a thousand and Cal getting mashed by Tennessee.

I would love to see Pac 10 - SEC, ACC/Big East and Big 12/Big 10 go at it.

[DannyOcean_]

I think the Pac 10 is always overrated.

Also, UGA will win the national championship. Book it.

[bevo_stevo]

Apparently none of the pundits agree on how the ACC is going to turn out this year. Some think that BC will finish on top of the Atlantic and others think they will finish near the bottom. Some have FSU rolling over everyone, others think FSU will be pretty mediocre. However, almost everyone agrees that Virginia Tech will take the Coastal.

Heres how my model sees things. Fair Disclosure: Duke is one of those teams with not a lot of information available. If you think they'll improve this year you might want to raise their RSW up a few tenths of a percent - maybe they'll win one [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img].

Florida St Season Wins: 8.191
@Clemson (-1.0) 0.52
Alabama Birmingham (-29.0) 0.972
@Colorado (-7.0) 0.715
Alabama (-8.5) 0.751
NC State (-12.0) 0.811
@Wake Forest (-7.0) 0.715
Miami FL (-5.5) 0.674
Duke (-33.5) 0.988
@Boston College (-4.0) 0.627
@Virginia Tech (6.5) 0.296
Maryland (-10.0) 0.784
@Florida (5.0) 0.337

Clemson Season Wins: 8.04
Florida St (1.0) 0.48
UL Monroe (-26.5) 0.965
Furman (-39.5) 0.999
@NC State (-2.0) 0.541
@Georgia Tech (2.5) 0.439
Virginia Tech (3.0) 0.408
Central Michigan (-21.5) 0.937
@Maryland (-0.0) 0.5
@Duke (-23.5) 0.946
Wake Forest (-9.0) 0.763
Boston College (-6.0) 0.688
@South Carolina (4.0) 0.373


Boston College Season Wins: 6.826
Wake Forest (-6.0) 0.688
NC State (-5.0) 0.663
@Georgia Tech (2.0) 0.459
Army (-25.5) 0.965
Massachusetts (-36.5) 0.984
Bowling Green (-16.5) 0.887
@Notre Dame (4.5) 0.351
@Virginia Tech (10.0) 0.216
Florida St (4.0) 0.373
@Maryland (3.0) 0.408
@Clemson (6.0) 0.312
Miami FL (-1.0) 0.52

Maryland Season Wins: 6.544
Villanova (-36.5) 0.984
@Florida International (-25.5) 0.965
West Virginia (9.5) 0.226
@Wake Forest (-0.0) 0.5
@Rutgers (6.5) 0.296
Georgia Tech (-1.5) 0.529
Virginia (-3.0) 0.592
Clemson (0.0) 0.5
@North Carolina (-5.0) 0.663
Boston College (-3.0) 0.592
@Florida St (10.0) 0.216
@NC State (1.0) 0.48

Wake Forest Season Wins: 6.348
@Boston College (6.0) 0.312
Nebraska (3.5) 0.389
Army (-22.5) 0.936
Maryland (0.0) 0.5
@Duke (-17.5) 0.897
Florida St (7.0) 0.285
@Navy (-3.5) 0.611
North Carolina (-8.0) 0.742
@Virginia (8.5) 0.249
@Clemson (9.0) 0.237
NC State (-2.0) 0.541
@Vanderbilt (-4.5) 0.649

NC State Season Wins: 6.243
Central Florida (-9.0) 0.763
@Boston College (5.0) 0.337
Wofford (-34.5) 0.989
Clemson (2.0) 0.459
Louisville (11.5) 0.196
@Florida St (12.0) 0.189
@East Carolina (-8.0) 0.742
Virginia (-2.0) 0.541
@Miami FL (7.0) 0.285
North Carolina (-9.0) 0.763
@Wake Forest (2.0) 0.459
Maryland (-1.0) 0.52

---------------------------------------

Virginia Tech Season Wins: 9.196
East Carolina (-23.0) 0.942
@LSU (7.0) 0.285
Ohio (-34.0) 0.988
William & Mary (-47.0) 0.999
North Carolina (-18.0) 0.902
@Clemson (-3.0) 0.592
@Duke (-31.0) 0.984
Boston College (-10.0) 0.784
@Georgia Tech (-3.5) 0.611
Florida St (-6.5) 0.704
Miami FL (-8.0) 0.742
@Virginia (-5.0) 0.663

Virginia Season Wins: 7.782
@Wyoming (-4.0) 0.627
Duke (-29.0) 0.972
@North Carolina (-4.0) 0.627
Georgia Tech (-1.5) 0.529
Pittsburgh (-11.0) 0.798
@Middle Tenn State (-25.0) 0.952
Connecticut (-20.0) 0.927
@Maryland (0.5) 0.49
@NC State (2.0) 0.459
Wake Forest (-8.5) 0.751
@Miami FL (6.0) 0.312
Virginia Tech (5.0) 0.337

Miami FL Season Wins: 7.598
Marshall (-20.0) 0.927
@Oklahoma (8.5) 0.249
Florida International (-35.5) 0.988
Texas A&M (-3.0) 0.592
Duke (-29.0) 0.972
@North Carolina (-7.0) 0.715
Georgia Tech (-6.0) 0.688
@Florida St (5.5) 0.326
NC State (-7.0) 0.715
Virginia (-6.0) 0.688
@Virginia Tech (8.0) 0.257
@Boston College (1.0) 0.48

Georgia Tech Season Wins: 7.059
@Notre Dame (5.0) 0.337
Samford (-36.0) 0.988
Boston College (-2.0) 0.541
@Virginia (1.5) 0.471
Clemson (-2.5) 0.561
@Maryland (3.5) 0.389
@Miami FL (6.0) 0.312
Army (-25.0) 0.952
Virginia Tech (3.5) 0.389
@Duke (-20.0) 0.927
North Carolina (-10.0) 0.784
Georgia (3.0) 0.408

North Carolina Season Wins: 4.62
James Madison (-28.5) 0.973
@East Carolina (-2.0) 0.541
Virginia (4.0) 0.373
@South Florida (13.5) 0.162
@Virginia Tech (18.0) 0.098
Miami FL (7.0) 0.285
South Carolina (9.0) 0.237
@Wake Forest (8.0) 0.257
Maryland (5.0) 0.337
@NC State (9.0) 0.237
@Georgia Tech (10.0) 0.216
Duke (-18.5) 0.904


Duke Season Wins: 0.883
Connecticut (6.0) 0.312
@Virginia (26.5) 0.035
@Northwestern (27.5) 0.027
@Navy (17.0) 0.11
@Miami FL (31.0) 0.016
Wake Forest (17.5) 0.103
Virginia Tech (28.5) 0.027
@Florida St (33.5) 0.012
Clemson (23.5) 0.054
Georgia Tech (22.0) 0.065
@Notre Dame (28.0) 0.027
@North Carolina (18.5) 0.096

[bevo_stevo]

[ QUOTE ]

I wish I could watch an SEC/PAC-10 challenge like they do ACC/Big-10 in basketball... there would be so many great games.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've always thought a good way to resolve some of the doubt about NCAA football championships is for teams to have an open date later in their schedule. The teams would know whether this was a home or an away game - they just would not know who the opponent was. After they had played lets say 9 or 10 games, the top out-of-conference teams would then be matched up against one another for that one weekend (and the weaker teams would face weaker opponents).

This way you could find out if the TCUs and Boise States should be taken seriously before we got to bowl season. It would also force the "good" teams to prove themselves prior to getting into the championship game.

I guess everyone has their opinion on how to improve the BCS, so this will be my little contribution.

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I wish I could watch an SEC/PAC-10 challenge like they do ACC/Big-10 in basketball... there would be so many great games.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've always thought a good way to resolve some of the doubt about NCAA football championships is for teams to have an open date later in their schedule. The teams would know whether this was a home or an away game - they just would not know who the opponent was. After they had played lets say 9 or 10 games, the top out-of-conference teams would then be matched up against one another for that one weekend (and the weaker teams would face weaker opponents).

This way you could find out if the TCUs and Boise States should be taken seriously before we got to bowl season. It would also force the "good" teams to prove themselves prior to getting into the championship game.

I guess everyone has their opinion on how to improve the BCS, so this will be my little contribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playoff with 8 teams...

[GoldenBears]

First off, I think the bowl system is cool. Winning a BCS bowl is sweet no matter who you are.

But if you want to find a true national champion, make a real playoff. I hate all this halfway in between the bowl system or halfway to a playoff plus one crap.

All excuses other than $ are bull... they used to say 'its too many games' back when they played 11 games and a bowl game (12 games) now they play 12 games, a conference champ and a bowl game, teams playing 14-15 games in a season.


As a fan, I want to see a 16 team playoff to end the season with the top 8 seeds going to the 6 conference champions and 2 at larges, and then next 8 being assigned in BCS ranking order.

First and second rounds are home games for the higher seeded teams. Then, a bye week for winning teams to arrange travel etc. and the semifinals and championships at BCS bowls with another bye in between semis and chip.

NCAA partners with a given airline and hotels and sells 'follow the team' tickets to fans where you pay $3000 or whatever and get a game ticket and a plane ticket to the semis and also to the finals if your team makes it.



Of course, this is totally impossible given:
(a) the pac-10 commish's hates the idea of the rose bowl becoming anything other than a pac10/big10 game
(b) smaller programs would object. (although, would they really? Make the top 16 and you play for a national title...)
(c) tons of revenue lost from small bowls being meaningless etc.


Good points:
(a) fair.
(b) teams would schedule more aggressively in the non conf knowing that a loss doesn't kill national title hopes.
(c) winning the conference is still huge
(d) its a 6 week post season, where you play 4 games max, and only 2 teams play 4 games anyway... not a big diff from what we have now



Last year it would've been:

1. Ohio State -- 16. Rutgers
2. Florida -- 15. Va Tech
3.(@large) Mich -- 14. WVU
4.(@large) LSU -- 13. Notre Dame
5. USC -- 12. Arkansas
6. Louisville -- 11. Auburn
7. Wake Forest -- 10. Boise St.
8. Oklahoma -- 9. Wisconsin


Then, just for the hell of it...
Ohio State - WVU
Florida - Boise St.
LSU - Wisconsin
USC - Louisville

WVU plays Florida in the Orange Bowl
LSU plays USC in the Rose Bowl

Florida beats USC in the Fiesta bowl.


Come on, how sick would that be?????

[iggymcfly]

8 team playoff is by far the easiest way to solve things. End the regular season a week earlier, have 4 quarterfinal games at campus sites the week before finals, have semis in the bowl games and the championship the week later. Piece of cake. Teams that don't win their conference can't get home quarterfinals and the top 6 spots go to conference winners so winning your conference is still important.

Back to regular analysis, where in the world did this come from:

[ QUOTE ]
Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Auburn will be worse

[/ QUOTE ]

LSU's returning 14 starters and is the consensus #2 team in the country. How are they going to be worse this year?

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
you do realize that the number of appearances the big east had...
Those teams aren't running big11ten schedules

[/ QUOTE ]

The Big 10 sucked hard at the top for about 20 years and everyone knows it 'cept a few B10 fans, see John Cooper for details. From 1969 to 2001 the B10 had one split Nat'l title. 1. 11-24 in the Rose Bowl. Overrated.
No one's impressed that a 3-8 B10 team might be able to beat a 3-8 BEast team.

Miami played the hardest sked in the country year-in, year-out, going to FSU, Fla, ND, BYU, Okla, Michigan, Houston, Arkansas, SoCar, and anywhere else they could get a real game v a top 10/20 team, and winning almost all of them, until people refused to play them anymore.

Here are some Miami v B10 scores over the years:
51-3 @ Wisconsin
23-3 Wisconsin
31-30 @ Michigan
35-0 v Purdue
24-7 v Iowa
26-20 v PSU
17-14 @ PSU
33-7 @ PSU
23-12 OSU kickoff classic
[of course Ohio got revenge later.]

I see PSU scheduled FIU and Buffalo this year. Tough! Ohio has YSU, Akron, and Kent. Whoa Nellie!!