Brian & Barry's prop bet

[cbnz]

always interesting to hear opinions from guys like Barry hope we keep this debate going a little longer, and Brian declining to bet on himself is probably a good choice considering he has barely any tourney experience

[borisp]

One thing that folks have missed: Sorel and Justin's finishes are not independent, therefore their combined expectation is slightly less than the sum of their individual expectations. The difference is essentially because when one cashes, the other is necessarily dipping into a lesser prize pool. For the extreme example, in any given tournament, Barry can make 20% of first, but Brian can at best make 10% of first and 10% of second.

I don't know if this is a significant swing that actually changes who has the edge (probably not actually), but it is a subtle point worth mentioning. I'd bet Barry was well aware of this when he made the prop.

[8Adam8]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that folks have missed: Sorel and Justin's finishes are not independent, therefore their combined expectation is slightly less than the sum of their individual expectations. The difference is essentially because when one cashes, the other is necessarily dipping into a lesser prize pool. For the extreme example, in any given tournament, Barry can make 20% of first, but Brian can at best make 10% of first and 10% of second.

I don't know if this is a significant swing that actually changes who has the edge (probably not actually), but it is a subtle point worth mentioning. I'd bet Barry was well aware of this when he made the prop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think this would affect the edge really at all. The result would be so miniscule that it would not have a realistic impact.

[2461Badugi]

[ QUOTE ]
None have yet to make a successful splash in the mixed games. The reason: to get to the top you need to play against top competition, not just log a lot of hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many people of any stripe have made a successful splash in the big game in the last two years or so? Or any mix game 1k/2k and up? What's the annual average of new, successful players?

[FortWorthJim]

Barry sounds like he is willing to take action from virtually anyone in a heads-up crossbook at WPT main events.

Are there any takers on this forum?

Barry, if you're reading, are there any players you wouldn't take action from in a heads-up crossbook of WPT main events?

[Azizal]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When making these comparisons for live play, I don't see why the online community just ignores the issue of tells as if they are some minor effect. Or that a thousand hours of experience in a poker room compares to Barry's thousands of hours. If Barry changes just a couple of decisions correctly in a tournament based on tells, that effect is HUGE.

We spend hours and hours here discussing lines that will gain a few chips in EV, and here's something that can save an entire stack. And only the live players know the value of this variable on the bet. Edge: Barry.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys all underestimate the gigantic technical errors that pretty much all "live" players make. They fail to understand the nonlinear value of chips, and make huge chipEV vs. $EV errors constantly. The vast majority fail to implement basic pushbot strategies. No amount of "reads" and "experience" can make up for such basic technical flaws.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are of course right in general, but not in the sense that I am referring to top live players only, who do not have the leaks you are referring to. I find it hard to believe that Barry has those leaks, for example. Would you contend that he does?

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that folks have missed: Sorel and Justin's finishes are not independent, therefore their combined expectation is slightly less than the sum of their individual expectations.

[/ QUOTE ]


uhmmmm.... no. they're also not independent of barry's finish, so if they finish first and second, barry can't finish in the top 2.

it does not change the ev at all. the fact that sorel is in the tournament lowers justin's ev, and justin being in the tournament lowers sorel's ev, but since they're going to play the same tournaments anyway it makes no difference.

[blah_blah]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that folks have missed: Sorel and Justin's finishes are not independent, therefore their combined expectation is slightly less than the sum of their individual expectations. The difference is essentially because when one cashes, the other is necessarily dipping into a lesser prize pool. For the extreme example, in any given tournament, Barry can make 20% of first, but Brian can at best make 10% of first and 10% of second.

I don't know if this is a significant swing that actually changes who has the edge (probably not actually), but it is a subtle point worth mentioning. I'd bet Barry was well aware of this when he made the prop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really surprised that you're saying this. Look at it this way. Say that aba crossbooks the entire field. Then they can't all finish first simultaneously, so their expectation should be less than the sums of their individual expectations (your argument), when in fact their collected expectation is just the entire prize pool, which is a priori equal to the sum of their individual expectations ...

[EWS87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One thing that folks have missed: Sorel and Justin's finishes are not independent, therefore their combined expectation is slightly less than the sum of their individual expectations.

[/ QUOTE ]


uhmmmm.... no. they're also not independent of barry's finish, so if they finish first and second, barry can't finish in the top 2.

it does not change the ev at all. the fact that sorel is in the tournament lower's everyone's ev, and justin being in the tournament lowers sorel's ev, but since they're going to play the same tournaments anyway it makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

[8Adam8]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When making these comparisons for live play, I don't see why the online community just ignores the issue of tells as if they are some minor effect. Or that a thousand hours of experience in a poker room compares to Barry's thousands of hours. If Barry changes just a couple of decisions correctly in a tournament based on tells, that effect is HUGE.

We spend hours and hours here discussing lines that will gain a few chips in EV, and here's something that can save an entire stack. And only the live players know the value of this variable on the bet. Edge: Barry.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys all underestimate the gigantic technical errors that pretty much all "live" players make. They fail to understand the nonlinear value of chips, and make huge chipEV vs. $EV errors constantly. The vast majority fail to implement basic pushbot strategies. No amount of "reads" and "experience" can make up for such basic technical flaws.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are of course right in general, but not in the sense that I am referring to top live players only, who do not have the leaks you are referring to. I find it hard to believe that Barry has those leaks, for example. Would you contend that he does?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would contend that the top 1% of live pros have average technical leaks similar to the top 5-10% of online MTT players

Note: I may be being generous here