Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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It's a real stretch to put hands like 22 and A2 in the raiser's range no matter what your read is.

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I think these hands are definitely in the range of a good shortstack player, less than 9 blinds deep (not considering antes), playing 6 handed.

[GotQuads]

A2s and 22 are definitely in his range, the problem is he rarely has those hands.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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In his post bust out interview though Kahn claimed that he had a read on Kravchenko that he was weak on this hand. If you repeat the exercise but make it twice as likely that Kravchenko has the weak half of his range than the strong half this goes from a marginal but probably good play to a clearly good play.

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It really makes no difference if you think he's weak. You still have 33. It's a real stretch to put hands like 22 and A2 in the raiser's range no matter what your read is.

I think this was one of the rare situations Phil Gordon got right. Online special, baby.

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What's his definition of weak? 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (47.6%) is mathematically not much different than K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (50.8%) vs. 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I'd also consider 44-66 "weak" too.

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well, if you can eliminate or reduce big pairs from his range, then your equity becomes a lot higher, making a close decision not that close.

[Roland32]

I watched this hand live on streaming. I have played with RainKhan quite a few times, and actually verbally called middle PP (turned out he had a small pp) THis is a play I used to make alot myself, I have been berated in the past for it too, but I still think it is the right play if:
1. You can put Rahme on a fold (mind you he has the advantage of visibly seeing him, as well as putting him on a range) With Rain making comments like he fols alot, I think that justifies his read in this regards
2. Is he in a huge hurry, no. DOes he need to still get moving, yes. The best part of taking a probably coin flip here is that it doesn't give you the death blow when you lose. This is a great time to take a ride on the variance train.
3. The only thing I fing questionable is that I think the original push is tighter than RainKhan gave credit for, and KJ really is on the bottom of his range. But that is pure opinion on my part.

[gumpzilla]

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well, if you can eliminate or reduce big pairs from his range, then your equity becomes a lot higher, making a close decision not that close.

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I don't really see what reason there is to think this. If we're positing that we're supposed to read Kravchenko as good enough to push light there because he's shortstacked, one would also presume that he'll realize it's blazingly obvious to limp or weakly raise KK+ there. So I don't think weakening the range makes any sense.

[Slim Pickens]

I made a little mistake in my first calculation. Khan needs 44.38% pot equity to call Kravchenko's push.

Here's some numbers to get started.

(chip stacks in 1k's)/(prize pool equity in $k)
(Kravchenko, Khan, Rahme)

Khan folds and Rahme folds:
(3310, 9195, 15915)/(1546.463, 2459.075, 3248.561)

Khan folds, then Rahme calls and wins, eliminating Kravchenko in 6th
(0, 9195, 19225)/(956.243, 2541.074, 3625.601)

Khan folds, Rahme calls Kravchenko and loses
(5630, 9195, 13595)/(1908.229, 2429.108, 2972.046)

[Slim Pickens]

Khan pushes, Rahme folds, Khan wins and eliminates Kravchenko in 6th
(0, 12505, 15915)/(956.243, 2922.728, 3289.466)

Khan pushes, Rahme folds, Khan loses to Kravchenko
(5780, 6725, 15915)/(1946.395, 2092.404, 3237.937)

[Slim Pickens]

Khan pushes, Rahme calls, Khan wins main and side pots
(0, 21550, 6870)/(956.243, 3852.229, 2253.401)

Khan pushes, Rahme calls, Rahme wins main and side pots
(0, 0, 28420)/(956.243, 1255.069, 4486.323)

Khan pushes, Rahme calls, Kravchenko wins main pot, Rahme wins side pot
(8100, 0, 20320)/(2407.889, 956.423, 3733.200)

Khan pushes, Rahme calls, Kravchenko wins main pot, Khan wins side pot
(8100, 13450, 6870)/(2272.926, 2951.263, 2094.028)

Now we can start arguing about hand ranges.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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well, if you can eliminate or reduce big pairs from his range, then your equity becomes a lot higher, making a close decision not that close.

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I don't really see what reason there is to think this. If we're positing that we're supposed to read Kravchenko as good enough to push light there because he's shortstacked, one would also presume that he'll realize it's blazingly obvious to limp or weakly raise KK+ there. So I don't think weakening the range makes any sense.

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well I was taking into account Rain's statement that his read was that the push was light.

also Kravchenko doesn't have nearly enough chips to limp or weakly raise, he only has 1 move.

[Pudge714]

UTG should be shoving really wide here if the calling/reshoving ranges are as follows.
UTG+1 88+,AQo+,ATs+
CO 66+,AT+
BTN 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs
SB 44+,A9o+,A7s+,KJs+
BB 44+,A8o+,A4s+,KJs+
It is +CEV to shove.
22+,A2+,K4o+,K2s+,Q6o+,Q2s+,J7o+,J2s+,T7o+,T2s+,97 o+,95s+,86o+,84s+,76o,74s+,64s+,53s+
I don't know enough about the respective players and there calling ranges, but that should give you an idea of how wide he can be shoving here against nitty opponents.
If he is capable of shoving close to that wide 33 seems like a call and if Rainkhan is isoing that wide AQ seems like a pretty easy call as well. Slim can you calculate how much pot equity the BB needs to call.