WSOP player claims he folded AA on the bubble

[Rottersod]

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I think his goal for the tournament was to make it ITM. Anything else is gravy. It's essentially a satellite for him.

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Yeah, I guess the one explanation that would make sense is if he had bought in with his last $10K...and he's like $8K in debt...and has no job.

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Like at least 30% of the field?

[Rottersod]

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i mean obviously i exaggerated to prove a point but the point remains valid...winning the tournament once and bubbling 411 times wins more money then coming in 621st all 412

its beyond stupid no matter what the circumstance

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I'm not saying I agree with the guy who folded AA on the bubble but why do you assume that he won't get much further after the bubble and move up in the money? Most everyone who plays the ME understands that they won't win but there's so much money to be made further up the list that it seems reckless to some players to put it all on the line at the bubble - even with the best hand preflop. Obviously the good players will push but most of the ME players are not good.

[Rottersod]

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Many of you don't seem to understand the concept of the marginal utility of money. The lifestyle difference between 0 and 20k may be much greater than 20 - Xk, X being the EV he gave up.

There may be odd circumstances where Id fold AA in a non satellite, including the hypothetical listed above; <1BB, qualified for 200$, 3 limpers, etc.

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Too clarify my point, its more complicated than that because you have to figure in percentages, etc.

But say that a player, Jim, has $1,000 in his bank account, and he has a 20k chip stack with the blinds 2-4k, we are one player from the money so folding in is not a problem. Jim gets AA, but the big stack raises to 15k in front of him, so he would call Jim's all in... lets also assume Jim knows for a fact he is a 75-25 favorite.

Now 75% of the time, Jim is going to increase his expected return 15k (from say 24k to 29k), and 25% of the time Jim is going to go broke (decrease his expected return by 24k). Over the long run, Jim is losing 21k/4, or 5.25k by folding, but this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Jim.

However, for Jim the difference between 0 and 20,000$ is worth 11 units of happiness, and the difference between 24k and 39k is worth 3 units of happiness. Over the long run, Jim is losing .5 units of happiness every time he calls here. Because he would be more than 3 times more crushed the 25% of the time he gets cracked than he would be happy the times he wins, he is right to fold.

Lets not forget that Jim, who works for 12$ an hour, knows this is a once in a lifetime thing, and 20k along with the pride of cashing in the main event.

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This is an excellent analysis of how the real world works. I know that many of the posters on 2+2 are kids with no real life experience yet so they can't understand the difference between $20,000 and nothing so I cut them some slack but the fact is that a fair percentage of people in the ME are exactly as described above - making a regular paycheck and playing well above their tolerance just for the chance to strike it rich. We should all be grateful to people like this and hope they are at our tables.

[Brocktoon]

I played a $200 satellite last year for a main seat (came in 2nd but thats another story). I'm a small stakes player and will not play in the ME for many, many years, if ever.

If I went last year I would understand the fact that it could very well be my first and ONLY chance to play in the biggest tournament in the world.

If I got dealt Aces on the bubble I would seriously consider folding. Things like stack size, how many players were already in, position, etc would factor in but there are many plausible scanarios where I would muck the Aces even though I fully understand its a -$EV play.

There is nothing wrong with looking at playing in the ME as an experience, and cashing would GREALTY add to that experience while bubbling would greatly detract from it. This is particularly true for small time satelliters.

[pineapple888]

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I've seen this question 1000x and everytime it's silly since it's a hypothetical with zero chance of ever occuring. We've all heard before that blah blah blah you are getting 9-1 with close to or over 30% equity, so let's move on.

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The only way it's interesting is if you are convinced that there is one person sane enough to also have AA, which would always be the case if this ever DID happen in the real world. In that case I'd fold, with no redraws and a chop being the best result.

[Chump Change]

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if my life and children's lives were on the line for me to cash...id still go all in with aces there

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Most stupid thing i have ever heard.

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Seriously. He isn't even considering stack sizes.

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lolol

[pig4bill]

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if i held AA and every person went all in before me I'd cream myself in excitement

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If I was on the bubble, I'd fold so fast I'd set the cards on fire.

What are your odds against 9 random hands? Like around 60%?

[AngusThermopyle]

Go out #622, get nothing.
Go out #621, get $20,320
Go out #289, get $39,445
Moving up 331 places doesn't even double your payout.

Anybody consider the flatness of the payout?

Sklansky article

[Dima2000123]

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if my life and children's lives were on the line for me to cash...id still go all in with aces there

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If your life and children's lives are on the line, then you're probably playing a bit beyond your bankroll. If you're playing beyond your bankroll, then there are some nominally +EV plays that you shouldn't make, because the cost of depleting your bankroll is just too high if variance goes against you.

As for the main question, I agree with others, it is possible that folding aces would actually be +$EV. Bubbles can really distort the relationship between cEV and $EV beyond anything that we can intuitively grasp. People who think that it always moronic to fold aces in a tournament are the ones who really lack understanding of particular aspects of the game.

[valenzuela]

if ure planning on folding AA on the bubble then dont go to the ME at all.