Interesting flop spot, 3/6

[jkkkk]

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then why is betting a mistake... we are giving villain the opportunity to put money in with the worst of it, I dont care if he ends up getting odds to call ai w/ AA, we're still profiting from this situation.


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just because you are ahead of someone's entire range doesn't mean you should bet. if 51% of his hands have 0% equity and 49% have 100% equity, then we're ahead of his range but betting would be pretty stupid

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no [censored]

[Josh.]

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if the turn blanks and he fires, what do you do then?

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um call?


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I can't see betting the flop being a bad play at all here, esp if he will play back at us with marginal hands sometimes.

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first off, i dont see him c/r many marginal hands. the most marginal hands are Qx and JJ, and those do better vs us than AA does.

the reason checking is best is because you want to play a small pot with your pair of 8s. you dont want to play a big one just yet. we can afford to play it slow with our 8s until our hand turns into a big pot hand like trips or a flush. you don't need to blow your load and get alol the money in lik you might want to with a hand that can't beat AK

[Josh.]

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then why is betting a mistake... we are giving villain the opportunity to put money in with the worst of it, I dont care if he ends up getting odds to call ai w/ AA, we're still profiting from this situation.


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just because you are ahead of someone's entire range doesn't mean you should bet. if 51% of his hands have 0% equity and 49% have 100% equity, then we're ahead of his range but betting would be pretty stupid

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no [censored]

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next time, if you know something is true, don't write the opposite

[Isura]

Josh,
Its a big pot already. I think the small pot concept is not that useful at this point.

[Josh.]

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Josh,
Its a big pot already. I think the small pot concept is not that useful at this point.

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that's not true at all. that the pot is already big is MORE reason to play your hand slowly

[xorbie]

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Josh,
Its a big pot already. I think the small pot concept is not that useful at this point.

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disagree completely, and in addition i think that the fact that its pretty big just gaurantees an easier time getting paid when/if you hit.

[jkkkk]

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the point is that our profit is < the amount we just called off pf. isnt the whole point of the pf call that we should theoreitcally be able to make that back and more?

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I can't dispute this, against a normal TAG I can't see this being a profitable call unless theres some special history there, giving pf advice in msnl is just pointless though.

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call, shove or fold depending on feel of the match

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there is no real feeling to this match.... hes just a regular TAG who you are looking to out play.

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you do realize that if the turn blanks it would have blanked even if we got all in on the flop, right?

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no waiz!

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its not bad, its just prob not the most +EV.

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give me most +EV line vs reg TAG plz

[Josh.]

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you do realize that if the turn blanks it would have blanked even if we got all in on the flop, right?

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no waiz!


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stop being such a prick when people are trying to help you understand something. what you quoted might be the most important statement in the thread, and it completely went over your head to the point where you mocked it

[jkkkk]

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then why is betting a mistake... we are giving villain the opportunity to put money in with the worst of it, I dont care if he ends up getting odds to call ai w/ AA, we're still profiting from this situation.


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just because you are ahead of someone's entire range doesn't mean you should bet. if 51% of his hands have 0% equity and 49% have 100% equity, then we're ahead of his range but betting would be pretty stupid

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no [censored]

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next time, if you know something is true, don't write the opposite

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oh please...

we have 60% equity vs 50% of his range and 45% equity vs the other 50%, he will play all hands the same. calculate my EV please?

no you say?

oh wait thats right because my example doesn't prove anything, neither does yours

[LB_001]

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.063 secs 15,714 games/sec

Board: Qs Ts 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.869% 41.41% 00.45% 410 4.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 58.131% 57.68% 00.45% 571 4.50 { 9s8s }


thats AA, no [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] its even better. for AA to fold here would be a mistake, the pot is laying AA the right odds to get it in. that means you would want, right now, for AA to fold.

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Huh? That sounds like an argument for betting to me. AA, KK, AQ, all fall into the same category, JJ and 99 are in even better shape than AA vs us and may find a fold if we bet here. Even if we're ahead of these hands but we want them to fold, why would we do anything but bet? I think shoving generates about the same fold equity as a normal bet on flop and turn, I think if i was villain here with JJ I'd probably call a shove pretty quick as it looks like some kind of draw, but might find a fold on turn/river.

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honestly you guys all seem to take the one line that lets villain play more or less perfectly with his entire range against us and only get it in when the odds warrant it or when he has us crushed.

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I agree to some extent with the 2nd part, but the board and our hand is such that we're not a big favorite vs anything (other than no pair hands) nor a big dog vs anything. He has the odds to get any pair >8 in here. I think by betting we make it difficult on JJ, 99, A10 to put it in here, and also stop free cards from AK, AJ. Giving free cards here imo allows villain to play wayyy more perfect against us. There's several cards we're not even sure if we want to see. Are you going to get it all in on a J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? We could easily get stacked by AK or JJ/AJ that may have folded to a flop bet. What's the plan if an ace or king comes? We'll have to shutdown and hope for a free showdown or catch up on the river. If a complete brick comes off, it's much easier for JJ/99 to call a bet or bet himself. Putting pressure on villain in this spot forces him to make more mistakes imo whereas we could make more mistakes on later streets by keeping the pot small. There's also no gurantee of getting paid off later by a lot of hands like 99/jj/A10 that may fold the flop if we bet (which would be a mistake by villain). In addition it's just better for metagame to be more aggressive and put villain to a decision whenever possible.

I think people are trying to get too fancy here, 6 of your 17 "outs" aren't completely clean (3 jacks, 3 9's make villain a better hand that make up a decent % of his range. It's also not a guranteed stack or anything if you do hit vs the marginal hands like 99/JJ/A10 and they think the flush is just another thing that might beat them in addition to a queen and end up folding. Also, giving free cards to A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a very ugly spot. We win the minimum when everyone misses and our pair holds, and we lose the max when we do "hit" and get all in. Imo its a good time to put pressure on the marginal hands on the flop and get in enough money so we only have 1 bet left for the turn/river if we hit, and not make a huge mistake getting stacked by a higher flush/straight that got there cheaply.