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#62
05-05-2007, 02:10 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Street Sense is clearly the horse to beat. [/ QUOTE ] Why? [/ QUOTE ] The obvious things help: good post, jockey who has a good riding style for the Derby, tractable racing style. Off the shelf he ran a good race against a horse who also has a legit chance to win the Derby. The kind of race he could get something out of. Moves to the polytrack where he not only has a reasonably predictable bounce, it's also a surface he's shown a dislike for in the past and a learning experience going an extra half furlong. Now he's back on a track he has relished before, where he ran faster than any other horse in this field has, and demolished several of these (most of whom look like contenders here as well). He's working great too. Nafzger is great at pointing for a single race as well IMO. This field is as poor as I can remember. I think he's got a lot more going for him than any of the other horses. The best bet I've seen is o/u 2:02 final time. Over is only -160. I have no clue how these pigs are going to beat 2:02, especially on a track that isn't playing particularly fast. 
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#63
05-05-2007, 02:18 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
Just got back from placing my bets. Here are some trifecta bets I made:
1. Tri-Box: 7,14,18 2. Tri-Box: 2,7,12 3. Tri-Box: 7,15,16 4. Tri-Box: 12,15,16 5. Tri: 8,18 w/ 8,18 w/ 7,12,14,15,16 would be thrilled if that last one came through
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#64
05-05-2007, 03:03 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
8 dual qualifiers: Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, No Biz, Stormello, Any Given Saturday and Liquidity. I wouldn't eliminate Street Sense because of his his bad last race Beyer. Keeneland's late speed bias is currently off the charts and any race over that surface needs to be judged accordingly.
My picks: Circular Quay - Street Sense. Zanjero might be worth a show bet and should be included in the last tri spot.
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#65
05-05-2007, 04:07 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
War Emblem didn't bounce
Smarty didn't bounce Barbaro didn't bounce, he annihilated the field.
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#66
05-05-2007, 04:08 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm liking Great Hunter, but I'm not so sure about his position at 20th [/ QUOTE ] There has only be one winner ever from the 20 post. [/ QUOTE ] Out of how many runners? The real question is, how many 'real' horses that woulda had a real shot from 10 were in the 12 pole. If a prior horse can win from 20, a horse like Great Hunter can win [not saying he will at all.]
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#67
05-05-2007, 05:24 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
Anywhere a under 21 year old can bet on this other than bodog?
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#70
05-05-2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
Hard Spun and StSense up top, HS still 12-1 online
Cowtown Cat in all exotics, also a bit at 30-1 online Scat Daddy place CQ/Tiago use in trifectas, CQ to show Nobiz/Dominican/GH use in superfectas HS/SS/SD exacta boxed. Tiny, tiny save win bets at 100-1 on Teufels+Liquidity in case we see another Giacomo blow-up scenario or sudden TStorm.
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