Common No Limit Situation

[SmegmaBear]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned thinking about why the BB would bet as opposed to not betting. It's a raised pot with an ace on the flop and he has 4 people still to act behind him (including the UTG preflop raise). If I'm in the BB and I flop anything interesting I will try and check raise: hope preflop raiser continuation bets, others call behind, then I can come over the top and win more money than if I bet out 1/2-pot.

If I was him I would hope to check raise with a large range of hands: AA, 88, 77, A8, A7, 87, 9hTh, 6h5h, 9h6h, 9hJh, 6hTh, Ahxh

Are there too many callers for a good preflop raiser to make a continuation bet here w/o AQ or AK?

I think the BB bet signals a weaker hand, more like A9-AQ trying to figure out where he stands in the hand vs. the preflop raise.

Under this thinking, I would reraise in this spot as the original raiser.

[drunkencowboy]

i can agree with the above post to some extent... it could go either way depending on your read on the player... I can see the guy raising instead of check raising with 87 but he would almost certainly check a set...

If a player had AA though and he thought you were strong, he might not think you hit the case Ace. He may put you on KK or QQ or JJ. He therefore might conclude that there will be no continuation bet and bet hoping to confuse the situation... He knows that by him checking and you checking (which he thinks is likely to happen) it will become more obvious that he has at least one ace on the turn.

However in my previous post i pretty much eliminated AA from this guys (BB) range of hands... Almost any player with AA who follows 2 other players who each call a 4x raise will reraise it up and try to isolate. You really have to be gambling to check in there in the BB... Actually its not gambling as much as it is stupidity.

this hand has alot of different situations. i like it as an example. it really depends on your feelings toward the player. if you dont know how the guy plays, you may want to look him up and find out. but if you are worried that he might outplay you, you should get away from it. i still like the ALL IN play as you can bluff the 3 aces you know he doesnt have [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If he has a set you will get called most likely but if he doesnt i think youre in good shape. its like 50/50...

[jogger08152]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, critical question -- what context?

The SB is betting $600 into a $1200 pot and five players to act. If I am the SB, here is what I might be thinking in this context:

1. Axh -- I have a nut flush draw and top pair, so I'll put out a 1/2 pot bet here. If I get callers, great, it builds a pot in the event I hit. Plus, I might also have the best hand with a pair of aces. If I get raised by one player, I will either call or push depending upon the size of his raise.

2. Set, with 77 or 88 -- I could (a) open with a weak lead, hope to get raised, and then push, or (b) open with a big bet, or (c) go for the check-raise knowing that one of the five behind me will certainly bet.

3. Two pair with 78 -- Make a sizable bet and see if anyone represents a hand that beats me with a big raise. If I get a normal (3-4x) raise, I might assume that he has a big ace and then work to get more money in the pot with a re-raise, sized to make sure that a draw is not getting a correct price to call my re-raise.

So, looking at the context here, which is most likely? In my estimation, without having any additional info about SB, I'm thinking the Axh hand is most likely to make the half-pot sized bet. The remainder of the hands would probably bet more or check. There are obviously a lot of possibilities, but based on the number of players in the hand and the size of SB bet, I would assume that I am most likely in the lead, or I should at least test that theory with a raise. I can't fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

While your analysis is good, your proposed action does not fit it!

Yes, we're ahead half the time here... except, as you noted, AhXh will oftentimes reraise such that we cannot call. So we're behind always in scenarios #2 and 3, and we're going to be folding the best hand to a big reraise at least half the time in scenario #1... after investing another 1200 or 1800 (or more) chips into the pot no less. And in those cases where we're ahead in scenario #1, we'll still be outdrawn 46.5% of the time.

Based on your analysis, this is an easy fold, no?

[Big_Ham]

[ QUOTE ]
Cash game. Generally good players. 25-50 blinds. You have about 12K in front of you and most have you covered. You make it 200 to go UTG with AQ of spades. Three calls behind you and both blinds call. Flop is Ad 8h 7h. Small blind checks. Big blind bets $600.

[/ QUOTE ]

A. I'm not happy about my preflop raise at all. I'd rather limp with these almost-rags. On the button it's good for a re-raise in some situations, but here I'd rather limp-raise or see the flop cheap.

In this particular situation (BB calls the preflop raise and bets this flop):

BB has 4 to the flush, OESD 70% of the time

You probably have the better hand at the moment. However, you still have MANY to act behind you. Flush draws are likely following unless you put in a sizable bet (pot and a half) and then any caller has you beat and drawing to 2 aces and 3 queens if you're lucky. Someone lucky enough to flop the uber-nut draw (OESFD) really isn't going anywhere either, needless to say.

If you want to stay in the hand, call the BB bet, pray for a few folds and no raisers and see a turn card. Maybe it's Qc and you're confident you've still got the best hand. You have to be ready to lay it down though - even if it's 2c.

This is highly situational and reading skills could help immensely here. I feel it is never wrong to fold in this situation.

I feel I would fold 70% of the time, call 20% of the time and raise 10% of the time.

[TheWorstPlayer]

do the people posting in this thread play NL holdem? despite what thatpfunk says (and he's correct) this is a fold, IMO. but some of these posts are very weird.

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]
do the people posting in this thread play NL holdem?... some of these posts are very weird.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. Do you mean comments like:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not happy about my preflop raise at all. I'd rather limp with these almost-rags.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many other dubious comments are made throughout this post. FWIW, I agree with TWP that this is a fold (as I stated earlier).

[Bet-and-win88]

Surprisingly, everybody who calls the folder pussys don't even argue ... This is one of the easiest laydowns you can make there.

[Big_Ham]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
do the people posting in this thread play NL holdem?... some of these posts are very weird.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. Do you mean comments like:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not happy about my preflop raise at all. I'd rather limp with these almost-rags.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many other dubious comments are made throughout this post. FWIW, I agree with TWP that this is a fold (as I stated earlier).

[/ QUOTE ]

I made that comment to point out how poor AsQs is in early position. There are many different ways to play any hand given the situation.

What exactly did you disagree with? Those aren't rags? You would never put in a larger raise in EP with these cards? You make no defense, only comments.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

BB basically has four types of hands here.

1) He can have a strong hand, one that beats you. In that case you want to fold.

2) He can have a made hand that is weaker than yours, but wants you to fold. He may have A9 and is probing to see if you raised preflop with a hand like KK. Given the possible draws out there, he would like to bet moderately and see where he stands.

3) He could have a semi-bluffing hand. Maybe a draw or middle pair (perhaps with backdoor straight and/or flush draws).

4) He could be on a total bluff. Unlikely, but not totally implausible, so it shouldn't be completely discounted.

With deep stacks, he bet half the pot into a multiway field. Is he playing this like he wants to build a large pot? Is it the right size if he wanted to throw out a little bit of a part-semibluff, part-blocking bet? Should he bet larger if he is trying to build the pot so that he can get someone to stack off? If you called behind the initial raiser and flopped two pair, would you be suspicious of this play and keep the pot smaller than you otherwise might have? He may still have a category 1 hand, but it seems like the possibility that he has otherwise should not be completely discounted, as some want to do.

If he has a hand in category 2, 3, or 4, you definitely want to at least call here, although I am not sure you automatically want to raise here in those cases. With the possible draws out, it seems likely that someone who has a made hand better than yours will raise if he stays in the pot, but call with a draw (although some may semi-bluff raise), so you'll have a fair idea of where you are. Would, say, the button call behind with middle or bottom set if you just call the flop?

I'm not completely sure of what the correct play is, but I feel that one strategy that should be evaluated is calling with the plan of possibly folding to another bet on the turn. I also think that we should consider how we would play AA and AhQh in this same scenario.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
BB basically has four types of hands here.

1) He can have a strong hand, one that beats you. In that case you want to fold.

2) He can have a made hand that is weaker than yours, but wants you to fold. He may have A9 and is probing to see if you raised preflop with a hand like KK. Given the possible draws out there, he would like to bet moderately and see where he stands.

3) He could have a semi-bluffing hand. Maybe a draw or middle pair (perhaps with backdoor straight and/or flush draws).

4) He could be on a total bluff. Unlikely, but not totally implausible, so it shouldn't be completely discounted.

With deep stacks, he bet half the pot into a multiway field. Is he playing this like he wants to build a large pot? Is it the right size if he wanted to throw out a little bit of a part-semibluff, part-blocking bet? Should he bet larger if he is trying to build the pot so that he can get someone to stack off? If you called behind the initial raiser and flopped two pair, would you be suspicious of this play and keep the pot smaller than you otherwise might have? He may still have a category 1 hand, but it seems like the possibility that he has otherwise should not be completely discounted, as some want to do.

If he has a hand in category 2, 3, or 4, you definitely want to at least call here, although I am not sure you automatically want to raise here in those cases. With the possible draws out, it seems likely that someone who has a made hand better than yours will raise if he stays in the pot, but call with a draw (although some may semi-bluff raise), so you'll have a fair idea of where you are. Would, say, the button call behind with middle or bottom set if you just call the flop?

I'm not completely sure of what the correct play is, but I feel that one strategy that should be evaluated is calling with the plan of possibly folding to another bet on the turn. I also think that we should consider how we would play AA and AhQh in this same scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]
BB hand types:

1) I feel this is very likely.

2) Given the UTG pf raise and the 6 way pot, I don't think a hand like A9 will lead out here. Maybe if you were heads up with the pf raiser, you might want to test him. But this lead of 1/2 pot is not going to make 5 other opponents go away. You have to know you will get some calls and possibly a raise somewhere. If you are facing a raise with A9, you are not looking good. If you get 3 callers, not many turn cards will make you happy so you are back where you started.

3) Much the same reasoning applies as in 2). And for a bet to be a semi-bluff, there has to be a reasonable chance of winning the pot outright. I don't see any sort of reasonable chance of all five opponents folding. Maybe, and I do mean maybe, a straight flush draw could do this although this kind of hand might go for a c/r all-in.

4) Again, a stone cold bluff has very little chance of working here. It has to be in the low single digits so it is -EV.

I do believe you are correct in your assessment that we cannot discount any of these plays. If we knew it was 1), we could fold and sleep well tonight. However, I think the real balance of the decision (and my humble opinion) is the fact that this is a 6 way pot. So these hands you have described could be held not only by BB but by four other opponents.

You have TP second kicker and your hand has little chance of improving (an Ah or Qh would not be thrilling so that leaves 5 happy day cards). The board has two clear draws. If the straight draw hits, you are drawing dead. If the flush draw hits, you cannot win unless the Ah or Qh is the flush card and then you have four outs but will probably not get the pots odds to draw.

I keep trying visualize how this hand could play out and I see lots of bad scenarios and very few good ones. So I feel that a call is just a waste of 600 dollars. And even if the turn looks safe, you could be on the way to losing even more if you were behind on the flop. There are only two turn cards that would make me happy, Ad and Ac. Even the Q in those suits wouldn't thrill me.

Oh and don't forget, it is unlikely with a call that you will have position on the turn either.

Too many negatives for my tastes.