Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn - Page 7

Sluss · #61 09-20-2005, 04:44 PM

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To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes.

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If we call I think we are only winning what is in the pot and losing everything else. I cannot think of a player who is not putting us on a draw with a flat call here. So when our draw hits we get nothing. And when our draw misses we just lost 1/5 of our stack.

The only reason I like a push is because of the fold equity we could gain. Winning the 3400 in the pot. I would say 20% of the time. And the 35% of the time when we get a call and hit our draw to become the big stack at the table.

CardSharpCook · #62 09-20-2005, 04:56 PM

Do you really think that the CO is going to check/fold his KJ when the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls on the river?

AJFenix · #63 09-20-2005, 05:09 PM

You certainly cannot fold here, the one card you wanted (or didn't) to see just came off, MJ looks like hes done after checking again on this scary board, so I think it is safe you are seeing the river for this price. I don't like this board for a pot committing raise, and I can't fold , so I call given those odds and see what the river brings.

MrMoo · #64 09-20-2005, 05:27 PM

With such a strongly worded disagreement about my choice from someone I respect, I feel the need to explain myself and at least attempt to convince you that a fold isn't a horrible play. We're in agreement about raising so I won't discuss that.

It's my opinion that CO can have almost anything at this point. I'd say a pocket pair is most likely but there aren't too many hands he could turn over that I would be surprised to see.

Now let's put MJ on a hand. Someone limped, we raised, and yet he still called. Based on the gap concept and Sirio's read, he's got a pretty good hand. Post flop I'd say AA-TT, AK-AJ, KQ. Maybe even tighter than that. Now his check on the turn narrows that down quite a bit. I agree MJ is likely done with the hand. His most plausible holdings, AK-AJ, KQ. All of which fully kill at least one our outs.

So now let's count outs. Nine clubs. But a 9 or 3 will pair the board and give CO a boat. So let's say thats 8.5 outs. We've got four K's but we've already counted for the flush. So thats, an additional 3 for 11.5 outs. Then the 3 aces. But those might not be clean. So I'll say 2 outs there. Total now is 13.5 outs. I'd be pretty worried if a J fell but I'll count the 3 of them as 1.5 outs. Then subtract at least one out that MJ was holding and we have 14 outs. So we're being give 2.29-1 odds. We're being asked to call 1500 to win currrently 3450. Which is 2.3-1.

Errrr. Ok. I give up. You win. Call is correct.

Sluss · #65 09-20-2005, 05:37 PM

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Do you really think that the CO is going to check/fold his KJ when the 2 falls on the river?

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I think he would fold it to a reasonable value bet. While you may get him to call a half a pot size bet, he isn't giving you too much.

bugstud · #66 09-20-2005, 05:50 PM

that range is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too tight sir

Sluss · #67 09-20-2005, 05:58 PM

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Post flop I'd say AA-TT, AK-AJ, KQ. Maybe even tighter than that.

[/ QUOTE ] He did limp/call Pre-flop. I can't see a tight player doing this with AA-QQ, AK.

Exitonly · #68 09-20-2005, 06:13 PM

yea he i think we can assume he wasn't trapping... cause if he was he would have raised it up preflop after MJ came along too.

And, like i said like an hour ago, raising will win you money, and to try and use stuff that i'm not so sure about.. has a higher standard deviation, so you're more likely to win big or lose big.. (but coming out slightly ahead in the deal)... and i think theres an argument for going to the big score here.

Is it ever right to take a slightly less +EV situation to try and get a bigger stack?

EverettKings · #69 09-20-2005, 06:21 PM

Stack size dictates a call.

With a shorter stack I can just jam without getting suspicious calls. With a deeper stack I have some more poker to play after my semibluff raise, though I don't hate a flat call there either.

But here.... you have a very good chance of getting a large percentage of your stack in the pot on the river if you hit. There is also no good way to take it down on the turn, save a bluff that kills a lot of the value of your hand and has questionable EV. MJ is highly unlikely to continue with the hand, and with any kind of made hand the CO can't just check/fold the river even if you get there. He could have a QJ or QT type hand and double you through when a K or baby club comes (or at least pay off a 3k value bet). Hell, even if he check/folds every river that hits you, the immediate pot is enough to validate a turn call.

I'm really getting curious to see the "masters" discussion of each of these streets.

Everett

curtains · #70 09-20-2005, 06:39 PM

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Do you really think that the CO is going to check/fold his KJ when the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls on the river?

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Of course, all of our opponents play perfectly and never pay you off when you hit your hand. Haven't you ever noticed this while playing in the past?