Public Service Announcement: Betting Draws on the Come

[Xhad]

The fact that you have to call a bet on the turn is an argument for pumping your draw, not against it. Otherwise you wouldn't be realizing all your hot and cold equity.

Being out of position multiway is an argument against pushing a thin edge with a draw, mostly because c/ring a T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] board into three people and then checking a 2 turn gives your hand away way too fast (it's not as much of a concern in position because at least then you get a free river).

[Xhad]

So I was originally going to make this its own thread but then decided this discussion was worth bumping so I stuck it in here.

Flushes do not always win.

Good LHE books typically tell you to ignore flush-over-flush or boat-over-flush until it actually happens, which is generally sound advice. After all, it doesn't happen very often and incorrect weak-tight play has the potential to cost so much more in the long run. Once you take the training wheels off, however, it's worth noting again.

I recently saw someone who should know better claim that a flush draw makes money by raising two people on the flop even if one has trips. The trips will make a full house about as often as the flush comes in, meaning the trips player beats you if you don't make your draw OR he makes his draw. That's actually a significant defecit.

Second, while getting coolered doesn't happen that often, it happens more in big multiway pots which are exactly the ones that tempt you to push your draw. This is where handreading becomes useful; if the action goes bet, call, call, call to you in an unraised pot on a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flop and you have 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (you posted in the CO), your opponents could have a lot of things, most of which don't hurt you. On the other hand boards like 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (depending on preflop action) give you a higher than normal chance of drawing dead.

EV exists on streets other than the current one - Consider implied odds and future action!

People hear this concept regarding preflop all the time, but it also matters postflop if you're paying attention. Raising a fd is marginally +EV even against two opponents, but what happens when you turn the flush and instead of bet/calling, your opponent check/calls because you raised the flop? Isn't "raising for a free card" a play that expressly hopes this happens?

It can be even worse OOP. Being the last aggressor is often a bad thing in these situations because you give yourself a choice between betting the turn as a significant underdog with no fold equity, or checking and basically announcing your hand (the latter isn't so bad in position since you got a discounted river out of it). Is the .25SB or so you get from pumping a fd 4-handed worth letting your opponents play perfectly on the turn? Think about it.

Counterpoint: There are other reasons to raise (and EV is still a good reason if you have it)

Just so I don't give the wrong impression that I'm a bigger nit than I really am: Yes, it's frequently correct to raise and reraise with flush draws, and often more than one reason supports it (for example, if you think your fd has a small equity edge and you are likely to get a free card, might as well raise since one or the other likely justifies it). Yes, often your equity is obviously good enough that raising is an end in itself. They're also great hands to clean up outs with because it costs you so little, so keep raising them in big pots where you also have things like overcards and one-card gutshots and stuff like that. Just realize that being 4-handed is not a mandate to cap 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flop.

[gobbledygeek]

Don't mean to dredge out an old thread, but I have a question regarding this concept.

(not sure how to quote more than one poster so I just copied and pasted their posts)


[
Bilgefisher posted this hand:

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Small blind raises, Big blind calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, Button calls

Flop: (12.00 SB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Small blind bets, Big blind calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, Button calls, Small blind raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, Small blind calls, UTG+1 calls
]


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milesdyson posted this reply:

check the turn. i would just call the flop bet. SB has a good hand and will 3-bet you too often on the flop. this is an example of predicting future action - you should not raise because it gives him the chance to reraise what is likely a good hand given his preflop raise.

once you decide to raise, i would also go ahead and cap, but it's because i'd figure to have a decent chance at seeing the river for free.
]



Could someone help a clueless noob out and explain why raising the flop is incorrect? After SB's bet we already have 2 other callers so we already have an equity advantage plus one of the two remaining to act behind us might come along to even improve things, plus there's no flush draw (are we really that afraid of a full house draw?), not to mention this might work as a free card play. Yes, SB could 3bet but isn't that what we want so we can pump things up even more by capping (so long as we have 2 others coming along)? The worst case situation is that we don't get a cold caller behind us and SB's 3bet scares off the other two callers (thus now we're heads up in a hand where we only have about a 1/3 chance of winning); but that's the unlikely worst case situation.

GcluelessnoobG

[milesdyson]

gobble,

im sure raising is +ev in the first place. i just worry SB reraises too often and knocks out hands like Q9 on the flop. when those guys would fold to SB's 3-bet but they pair up on the turn and you hit your straight on the river, that's an extra 2+ bets in the pot. i just prefer calling because it was an SB raise. raising is never going to increase your chances of winning this pot so i want to let as many people see the turn as possible. it doesn't really matter though, and both plays are viable. his turn bet is just bad, though