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#61
10-30-2006, 01:57 AM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL wong teasers: Week 8
I would not have much data after breaking up home and away
others have asked about a longer timeline, and I could do it. However, you'll have to wait. I'm sure I have old phil steele preseason guides sitting in storage up North. I'll dig them up next chance I get. I probably have data back to '94 or so with maybe one or two gaps. 
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#62
10-30-2006, 01:58 AM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL wong teasers: Week 8
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] damn...why didn't I break it up home and away? I'll go back through anyway, 1.5 to 2.5 point dogs for 2002-2005 NCAAF Div1A according to Gold Sheet spreads 119-107 ATS, 52.65%* 162-63-1 on a 6 pt teaser, 72% 2-team 6-point teaser would be positive at -107 or better over this time range. The + run on the teasers is heavily influenced by the positive run of the underlying ATS bets. *this is positive ev in itself with a -111 line or better, but the standard deviation on this distribution makes it uncertain whether it's good to bet it in general. [/ QUOTE ] These are HOME dogs, right? [/ QUOTE ] all dogs....I'll break them up further later tonight
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#63
10-30-2006, 02:07 AM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL wong teasers: Week 8
even more interesting if you could throw out high total games, although that would be hard and i don't know where a cutoff should be, but the lower the total the more each point matters and we have lower totals now with the rule changes.
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#64
10-30-2006, 04:04 AM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL wong teasers: Week 8
you already hit the jackpot, and I was debating whether to give that info away.
the lower totals are probably a good mine for the spreads and seem so as I'm thumbing through. bah...I decided it's finally about time that I take all the info I have in print and enter it into a database, or a spreadsheet at the very least. It will be easier to filter and search through it all, though I enjoy reliving the games of years past thumbing through scores.
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#65
10-30-2006, 04:33 AM
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college daliwongs?
Here's what I have thus far (going over every div 1A game from 2002-2005):
 W-L-T record and win proportions (win pct divided by 100) most of you are capable of the math, but for those who are not: 1) take the win pct and take it to the power of however many games you are teasing 2a) compare that pct to a chart, such as the one on page 77 in Sharp Sports betting to find the break-even moneyline for those bets or 2b) convert the % to a moneyline through some algebra which was just on the board last week. 3) bet at better lines if they exist
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#66
10-30-2006, 04:57 AM
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Re: college daliwongs?
as of right now, these numbers would indicate good news for W Virginia @ L'Ville and Purdue @ Mich St
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#67
10-30-2006, 09:43 AM
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Re: college daliwongs?
2 wongable games for Week 9 on 5dimes...
KC (+8.5) @ STL DEN (+7.5) @ PIT I am also two-teaming these picks with MIN (+7.5) @ NE tonight, good or bad idea (already got a bunch pending on this game with this week's two-teamers), or just treat it like a normal 2-team wong tease? Also, OAK @ SEA (-3) is available for teasers, any value in this line?
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#68
10-30-2006, 11:16 AM
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Re: college daliwongs?
I got Tampa and Seattle as well at other books.
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#69
10-30-2006, 01:18 PM
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Re: college daliwongs?
[ QUOTE ]
2 wongable games for Week 9 on 5dimes... KC (+8.5) @ STL DEN (+7.5) @ PIT I am also two-teaming these picks with MIN (+7.5) @ NE tonight, good or bad idea (already got a bunch pending on this game with this week's two-teamers), or just treat it like a normal 2-team wong tease? Also, OAK @ SEA (-3) is available for teasers, any value in this line? [/ QUOTE ] A good wonged game is a good wonged game, period. I don't like Sea -3 to wong Oak. Edit: I did same with these 2 new teases, will count them toward week 9 though.
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