MyTurn's week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Oregon -2 @ Arizona State

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gosh darn...I'm stuck betting an ASU game again, but ASU really got exposed last week.

The pros for ASU are that ORegon has had trouble stopping the run and ASU runs very well for a team with a pass-first reputation. In addition, the injuries in the secondary and OLB for the Ducks create some gaps for the Sun Devil pass attack.

the pros from the Oregon POV:
they will dominate on offense. The Ducks have a truly versatile attack that has crushed good competition.
They also have a good pass rush that forces the opposing QB into tough situations. So far, that has been Carpenter's downfall and it will be the key of this game IMO.

FWIW: Gottfreid and McShay both agreed on this pick in a big way.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Auburn -14 @ S Carolina
Auburn/S Carolina u40

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South carolina's offense is non-existent, even at home. Auburn's defense is one of the top 5 in the country.

Kenny Irons got a week off to rest for a huge revenge game for him personally (he was at USC for awhile). Auburn will pound the yardage out and take advantage of the great field position all day.

FWIW: Mike Gottfreid said Auburn by 3 TDs, McShay agreed.

[ML4L]

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My issue is that power rankings, etc (such as sagarin) are very inaccurate at the tail ends (with both the top and bottom teams). Hence, their utility for measuring match-up involving the top 5 teams are way off.

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I agree with this 100%, which is part of why I don't think that any computer rating can do a really good job of handicapping. Computer rankings don't properly take into account "fluke" occurrences (such as the Oregon/Oklahoma replay issue), injuries, young teams getting better as the season wears on, etc.

I think that the issue of power rankings under-rating the very best teams is why you will often see those teams have very strong ATS records in addition to their zero or one-loss record SU. In most cases, it is well into the season before "everyone" becomes convinced that certain teams are head and shoulders above the other elite teams (Texas last year being a good example). As it stands now, I don't think that tOSU is being credited with being 4+ points better than everyone else in the country. One can only speculate why that might be, but I think that it's safe to say that, right or wrong, not everyone appears to share your opinion on tOSU. Which is good news for you, because it's letting you pound what you perceive as a huge +EV spot...

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Furthermore, power ratings are pretty crappy in the first few weeks of the football season. The best team Iowa has played is #48 according to sagarin. Iowa's ranking is a big unknown. Are 'value' betters likely to discount the rating when there is so much error behind the number? Do value betters look at the likely distribution of what the 'true' power ranking difference might be?

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Again, my (un)educated guess is that nobody is putting any stock in computer rankings for Iowa yet, due to the Tate injury, the weak SoS, and the fact that it is still early in the season. It looks like people have Iowa pegged around where they did at the start of the season, perhaps a little lower.

As one poster pointed out, this game was a pk when Pinny had a line up for it during the preseason. So, there has been some reaction to the early season performance of each team. But, getting back to your original question (which was probably rhetorical...oh well [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), I think that the books are going to be heavily-influenced by preseason expectations in the absence of very obvious evidence to the contrary. Enough people are still on the Iowa bandwagon that, when combined with the fact that tOSU doesn't seem to command a USC-type premium yet, -7 should balance the books.

ML4L

[MyTurn2Raise]

added South Carolina u11.5 v Auburn

OK, they switched qbs. Big deal. South Carolina has not been able to score verse SEC teams. Auburn beat S Carolina 48-7 last year. Auburn is better. S Car is worse. Yes, the homefield as flipped, but that won't be enough. The only team to score over 11.5 verse Auburn was a dynamic Wazzu offense in week 1. After shutting down LSU, look for the Tigers to come out with the same effort. Expect the gamecocks to look like the team that Georgia completely dominated.

[Mr. 33]

Trap, trap, trap. I'll play devil's advocate here and disagree with the OSU-Iowa game. It's crazy to hear some of you saying that OSU should be a two touchdown favorite. Iowa will put up some points against OSU's defense, it just depends on if OSU's offense clicks or not. I just have a weird feeling that this OSU team is not a typical run-the-ball-first Tressel type OSU team. Come crunch time in a one possesion game, I don't see OSU being a true #1 team. Don't discredit Iowa good ATS record at home either. Trends are trends, no matter how you look at it. Hopefully it jumps over +7. I also like Minnesota at +9.5 (especially buying the 0.5 point to get +10). Michigan struggles at the Dome, and this year they don't have the force known as John Navarre to bring them out of a 30-point hole. Plus, as all of the Michigan fans out there know, you can't spell Lloyd Carr without two Ls. This might be one of them. There's no way in hell Michigan goes in undefeated into the Big Game (as much as I wish they did). Plus, are there any non-Big Ten fans out there that find OSU and especially Jim Tressel very annoying?? I'm very biased, for various reasons, so I don't count.

Prediction: OSU 24-21 (I must say that I forsee some sort of horrible injury for Drew Tate this season...strange but true. Hopefully this happens in the following weeks, just not Saturday (Sunday is fine))

Prediction: Minnesota 31-28 OT

NCAAF YTD: 35-16 (all one unit per game except for an easy 8-unit ND victory last week in East Lansing)

UM games: 4-0
OSU games: 0-2...no way I go 0-3!!

[MyTurn2Raise]

How will Iowa score?

[Thremp]

Mr. 33,

Trends are not trends. Take a classic example. I for the last 90 of 113 nights have had relations with my girlfriend before I went to bed. Obv. I should cover tonight... But alas... she's on the rag.

tOSU 31-14

(I thought I'd bring some OOT and BBV to SBF)

[Troy Smith]

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Trap, trap, trap. I'll play devil's advocate here and disagree with the OSU-Iowa game. It's crazy to hear some of you saying that OSU should be a two touchdown favorite. Iowa will put up some points against OSU's defense, it just depends on if OSU's offense clicks or not. I just have a weird feeling that this OSU team is not a typical run-the-ball-first Tressel type OSU team. Come crunch time in a one possesion game, I don't see OSU being a true #1 team. Don't discredit Iowa good ATS record at home either. Trends are trends, no matter how you look at it. Hopefully it jumps over +7. I also like Minnesota at +9.5 (especially buying the 0.5 point to get +10). Michigan struggles at the Dome, and this year they don't have the force known as John Navarre to bring them out of a 30-point hole. Plus, as all of the Michigan fans out there know, you can't spell Lloyd Carr without two Ls. This might be one of them. There's no way in hell Michigan goes in undefeated into the Big Game (as much as I wish they did). Plus, are there any non-Big Ten fans out there that find OSU and especially Jim Tressel very annoying?? I'm very biased, for various reasons, so I don't count.

Prediction: OSU 24-21 (I must say that I forsee some sort of horrible injury for Drew Tate this season...strange but true. Hopefully this happens in the following weeks, just not Saturday (Sunday is fine))

Prediction: Minnesota 31-28 OT

NCAAF YTD: 35-16 (all one unit per game except for an easy 8-unit ND victory last week in East Lansing)

UM games: 4-0
OSU games: 0-2...no way I go 0-3!!

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There is no way Iowa puts up 21. There is a reason why you are 0-2 in OSU games.

[Mr. 33]

I just think OSU is a little overrated and Iowa usually comes up strong at home. Unless there is a great mismatch in talent, any road favorite over a touchdown in the Big Ten is too high in my books...see UM vs. Minn. I guess Iowa's #15 ranking (or whatever it is) is ridiculous.

[commish223]

Toledo +14 at Pitt