100r hand against Bax. - Page 7

FGators · #61 08-15-2006, 03:57 PM

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Ah, this is true... didn't realize stack sizes. But in general, if bet into again on the river, I wouldn't even waste another single chip raising him.

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I cannot think of a single hand Bax could have that calls a turn raise and leads a non-board pair non-4th spade river.

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The nut flush?

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haha. I didn't think of this because I'm being so results oriented since Bax just called gobbo's minraise.

durron597 · #62 08-15-2006, 04:09 PM

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Ah, this is true... didn't realize stack sizes. But in general, if bet into again on the river, I wouldn't even waste another single chip raising him.

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I cannot think of a single hand Bax could have that calls a turn raise and leads a non-board pair non-4th spade river.

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The nut flush?

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Why wouldn't the nut flush bet-3bet the turn??

Jason Strasser (strassa2) · #63 08-15-2006, 04:25 PM

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Jason, I think you are making this more complicated then it needs to be. Bax's line looks like strength to me, and the first thing that comes to mind to me is the As. I think Gobbo has to take advantage of his image (I have not played with him much, but I understand his image to be very LAG) and the chance that Bax has a strong hand and both build the pot and charge Bax to draw. The supposed Shania benefit of calling the turn here seems very overrated to me, particularly combined with the river minraise.

And even if you do want to worry about Shania, doesn't Gobbo want to mix in scare card raises when he does have real strength? This is exactly that opportunity, and if Bax has any kind of real hand, which it seems likely he does, he is calling and then probably having to call a pretty significant non-river-spade bet.

Bax is not being results oriented, he is calling it like it is.

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So on the turn, bax leads, gobbo makes a normal sized pot raise. Is bax never folding the As here? AQ no draw?

#64 08-15-2006, 04:26 PM

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Ah, this is true... didn't realize stack sizes. But in general, if bet into again on the river, I wouldn't even waste another single chip raising him.

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I cannot think of a single hand Bax could have that calls a turn raise and leads a non-board pair non-4th spade river.

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The nut flush?

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Why wouldn't the nut flush bet-3bet the turn??

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He might. He might not. But to say you can't think of a single hand that plays this way is making a really big assumption about how Bax might play certain holdings. Maybe he thought calling and betting would get more out of a TPTK type hand. Maybe he thought that he had a better chance of stacking a two pair or a baby flush this way.

The answer is: I don't know, but I think it's possible.

#65 08-15-2006, 04:28 PM

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Jason, I think you are making this more complicated then it needs to be. Bax's line looks like strength to me, and the first thing that comes to mind to me is the As. I think Gobbo has to take advantage of his image (I have not played with him much, but I understand his image to be very LAG) and the chance that Bax has a strong hand and both build the pot and charge Bax to draw. The supposed Shania benefit of calling the turn here seems very overrated to me, particularly combined with the river minraise.

And even if you do want to worry about Shania, doesn't Gobbo want to mix in scare card raises when he does have real strength? This is exactly that opportunity, and if Bax has any kind of real hand, which it seems likely he does, he is calling and then probably having to call a pretty significant non-river-spade bet.

Bax is not being results oriented, he is calling it like it is.

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So on the turn, bax leads, gobbo makes a normal sized pot raise. Is bax never folding the As here? AQ no draw?

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He's certainly never folding A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J. As for a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q, I'd be willing to bet that he's calling almost always with this type of hand.

gobboboy · #66 08-15-2006, 04:54 PM

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Jason, I think you are making this more complicated then it needs to be. Bax's line looks like strength to me, and the first thing that comes to mind to me is the As. I think Gobbo has to take advantage of his image (I have not played with him much, but I understand his image to be very LAG) and the chance that Bax has a strong hand and both build the pot and charge Bax to draw. The supposed Shania benefit of calling the turn here seems very overrated to me, particularly combined with the river minraise.

And even if you do want to worry about Shania, doesn't Gobbo want to mix in scare card raises when he does have real strength? This is exactly that opportunity, and if Bax has any kind of real hand, which it seems likely he does, he is calling and then probably having to call a pretty significant non-river-spade bet.

Bax is not being results oriented, he is calling it like it is.

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So on the turn, bax leads, gobbo makes a normal sized pot raise. Is bax never folding the As here? AQ no draw?

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He's certainly never folding A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J. As for a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q, I'd be willing to bet that he's calling almost always with this type of hand.

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Thus is the part where being a 'tourney donk' drastically changes things. If bax is going to be making a call on the turn here with AsQx he almost always is beat but is taking a chance because he plays mostly tournaments and you have to gamble with this sort of hand sometimes. That is why I put it in the title and that it why it's pertinent information. In a cash game I'm pretty sure the turn is a muck with AsQx every single time.

mlagoo · #67 08-15-2006, 05:01 PM

you mean if you raise the turn

durron597 · #68 08-15-2006, 06:21 PM

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He might. He might not. But to say you can't think of a single hand that plays this way is making a really big assumption about how Bax might play certain holdings. Maybe he thought calling and betting would get more out of a TPTK type hand. Maybe he thought that he had a better chance of stacking a two pair or a baby flush this way.

The answer is: I don't know, but I think it's possible.

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No, you have a point. I think Bax more often than not will bet-3bet the turn with the nut flush bat I suppose some of the time he will call/donkbet the river.

I just think bet flop, bet-call turn, bet river is a really weird line on this board and there are almost no hands where that line is better than something else.

uclabruinz · #69 08-16-2006, 03:15 AM

Jason, I don't think Bax is laying down the As here on the turn to a raise by Gobbo very often. Am I wrong?

Gobbo, if your assessment of Bax is correct, wouldn't that make raising the turn clearly the correct play?

registrar · #70 08-16-2006, 06:15 AM

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Villain in the hand is JohnnyBax. He and I have a bit of history playing together, I think he respects my play but at the same time is frustrated that I have come out on top in most of our little spats. I view him as obviously a good player but honestly I think he has a bit of tourney donk-itis (AKA more prone to call with stronger hands even when he believes he is beat).

On to the hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t10697)
Button (t5545)
SB (t13470)
BB (t3970)
UTG (t1975)
gobbo (t24116)
MP1 (t21305)
MP2 (t10300)

Preflop: gobbo is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, gobbo raises to t600, 4 folds, SB calls t500, 1 fold.

Obv.

Flop: (t1275) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t600, gobbo calls t600.

His stack size is pretty much perfect for a bet/3bet here and I don't really want to gamble with a small flush draw at this point in the tournament.

Turn: (t2475) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t1200, gobbo calls t1200.

This is definitely the key decision point in the hand. if I call here, my hand is still somewhat disguised but the pot is pretty small. If I raise a river bet after just calling here to put him allin, I'm pretty sure he can get away from it. But what I actually did gets paid off a lot more, and in this tournament with such a small field I really like chipping up with a larger probability of success. If I raise here however, he either stacks off to me or folds and I get barely anything out of it.

River: (t4875) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t2400, gobbo raises to t4800, SB calls t2400.

Given the turn action, I felt this was the best way to confuse him and get him to payoff basically with any hand he has here that's not complete air.

Final Pot: t14475

Thoughts? Questions?

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I don't know much about the way that either of you play and what you are likley to know about each other but if this were me and another good player on a site where I have good LB form and a certain reputation for aggression, I'd raise the turn for two reasons.

Firstly, by calling in SB and then betting out flop and turn on this board, villain is telling me he has a hand and a hand he's not about to let go. I expect villain to call a reasonable raise, on the stregth of his hand, but I also expect villain (who is a good player who knows I'm a lag bastard) to call a larger, unreasonable raise because, that's probably what I'd do with a hand that I think is beaten on a scary turn.

Secondly, at this point, I would expect villain to hve an ace, which means one time in three he's going to have the nut flush draw. Ideally, villain pushes the turn when I raise.