Daliman's NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux

[toohigh]

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So I've been thinking deeply about wonging after last year's success thanx to Dali.

What I've been thinking about is the fact that the only book offering even money 2-teamers is 5dimes as far as I know, and they obviously shade the lines to make it look like there are more wongable games than there truly should be.

Last year I would often goto Pinny and check out their lines to kind of get a feel for which teams are truly wongable, by using their dropdown menu and choosing the spread closest to -110.

However, sometimes this can be difficult, as a lot of their spreads aren't exactly -110, and also sometimes they aren't relatively close to the -110 either.

So I was thinking, is there a way to look at the money line, and figure out what the spread would be based on that? Or is it not a linear scale? I was thinking that about 20 points in the money line translates to one point in the spread, but I could be way off, and am probably just over-complicating things.

Should I just be going off what the spread is closest to the -110, even if it is like 10 points or so off?

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After using this point spread to money line converter, I figured out the following:

-7.5 = -295
-8.5 = -385
+1.5 = +120
+2.5 = +145

Does this mean maybe I should try looking for money lines between -295 & -385 and between +120 & +145, and wonging these teams if they are available?

Edit: If I go by this, there are four available wongs right now on 5dimes:

TEN vs JAC (-300)
ATL (+144) vs MIN
DET (+123) vs OAK
BAL (+124) vs CIN

All of the money lines are according to Pinny, and all of these selections cross either the 3 or 7 on 5dimes. However, all of these aren't listed as wongable spreads on Pinny.

I think I'm gonna start off small and test out this theory, see how it goes for a couple of weeks. Unless anyone has some further insight into the best way to find out if a team is truly wongable?

[Taylor Caby]

excuse me if this is stupid but i am very new here.

if these sportsbooks are moving lines which makes seemingly wongable games unwongable, does this create other +EV opportunities? i can't figure out exactly how but it seems to me like it would.

thanks and i've officially made my first wong teaser bet for $20 at bodog.

tc

[Trencherman]

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if these sportsbooks are moving lines which makes seemingly wongable games unwongable, does this create other +EV opportunities? i can't figure out exactly how but it seems to me like it would.

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No. This isn't the normal case of a sportsbook shifting a line in response to irrational public betting or heavy "sharp" action, but rather making the default line used in composing teaser bets a nonstandard line that is correspondingly adjusted to still be efficient to the actual true or market price for the game.

For example, what you'll see at 5 Dimes is that the spreads you're teasing do not match the true 50-50 or standard -110 lines of other books. Thus, although what might be CAR +1.5 -110 at another book is still offered at 5 Dimes for this price, the line used for teasers is CAR +1. The reason this doesn't create a +EV scenario for betting on CAR's opponent at -1 is that this line is offered for straight betting only at skewed odds such as CAR +1 +100 / STL -1 -120.

[MyTurn2Raise]

ALright everyone, I'll be making a Wong FAQ and, hopefully, have it up later tonight

I'm hoping it's something that we can link to for all the mundane details on what wonging is, why it works, the borderline for wongs, etc?
Also, it can be the catch all for people to ask future questions for the few things that remain unanswered.

The game tonight is not wongable, so don't worry about it

[facialabuse]

does any1 who knows what they're doing have an opinion on the wonging of converted spreads-to-moneylines that guy posted?

seems hella smart to me but i have no idea what im doing

[playersare]

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does any1 who knows what they're doing have an opinion on the wonging of converted spreads-to-moneylines that guy posted?

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the data is useful.

[rjp]

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After using this point spread to money line converter, I figured out the following:

-7.5 = -295
-8.5 = -385
+1.5 = +120
+2.5 = +145

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Be careful and make sure you're using this right. While a -385 money line equates to a roughly -8.5 point spread, the fair odds for -8.5 is roughly -104. As such, it seems like you want to know that -8.5 +100 equates to -338, so you'd want to use the Point Spread piece of the calculator.

You can also use the point spread value calculator to approximate the odds of covering a teased spread once you know the team's probability of winning. This helped me hop on NO -3.5 +400 last night. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm also working on a market analyzer that shows the no-vig point spread and fair money line odds, but for now you'll just have to use the above.

[rjp]

Let me also add that the listed money lines are typically shaded to the favorite!

[NajdorfDefense]

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I think I'll make a specific Wong Teaser FAQ

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great idea!

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this is a very good idea and would be greatly appreciated...najdorf who is that girl do you have more pictures?

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Underage and overhot.

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limit is 14 in that state, bless the Amish, so far from underage...

[CarlSpackler]

I understand the basics of Wong teasers, although this will be the first season I've tried them. I've got the following games as Wongable all @ -110:

KC +8.5
Car +8
Det +8
Bal +8.5

Here's my question: Should I be doing every possible combination of 2 and 3 team teasers (I'll be doing the 4 teamer, obv.) with these 4 games? The following possible teasers are as follows:

4 teamer:
KC, Car, Det, Bal

3 teamers (4 total):
KC, Car, Det
KC, Car, Bal
KC, Det, Bal
Car, Det, Bal

2 teamers (6 total):
KC, Car
KC, Det
KC, Bal
Car, Det
Car, Bal
Det, Bal

That adds up to 10 possible 2 and 3 team wong teasers. Is the best way to maximize EV here to play all 10 at the same # of units, or should I also factor in my own analysis of these games when deciding how much to bet on each one?

I love Bal and Car, really like Det, but I'm not as confident in KC, although it's still attractive.