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#61
10-22-2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Has anyone seen the Ohio State line? I'm thinking they are a great play laying less than 7. Penn St. is just not very good. Morelli is good when he has time and can getin a rythm but as a team they are slow and look bad against teams with speed. I expect Ohio St. to put them away easily despite the night game at Happy Valley. .... [/ QUOTE ] Yes we've seen the Ohio State line. You are overestimating the current completely untested #1 by a longshot and underestimating the homefield advantage of Happy Valley. Ohio State hasn't played a single real team yet if you'd bother to look at their schedule(which I'm sure you haven't). PSU ATS Home: 4-1 ATS Road: 0-3 [/ QUOTE ] Of course they haven't played a real team, its the Big Ten. Nevertheless, they should do to Penn St. about what they did to Purdue, who is similarly crappy, but not too bad for the Big Ten. [/ QUOTE ] You bet real big on Ohio -4 at PSU 2 years ago, didn't you? Regardless, posts about how a team can't possibly lose on the road belong more in Sporting Events than here. Ohio's 7-pt win at home v Sparty, and 5 turnovers [home] v Akron where they were trailing 3-2 at the half didn't exactly remind me of a team that should be favored by 7 [LOL WTF?] at Happy Valley. #1/#2 undefeated USC, LSU, OKLA, USF, CAL, Fla have all lost, most of them on the road. I'm sure Ohio is immune from getting beat on the road vs a ranked opponent on national TV, at night. Just like 2 years ago. We've all seen the line, after all, this IS the: "EARLY NCAA WEEK 9 THREAD." Asking people if they've seen the line is silly. [/ QUOTE ] 2 years ago, Penn State was good. This year, they aren't. By the way- Ohio is in the MAC and not #1 in the country. 
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#62
10-22-2007, 04:25 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
honestly,
I don't see how Penn St losing close at Michigan, losing close the following week at Illinois, and winning close at Indiana says that they are anything less than #25 in the country that isn't a horrible outcome for tough road games. They were in every single one of them. One extra play and they could only have one loss and be playing for the Big11Ten title this weekend...look at the rest of their schedule and you'll see what I mean. The tough opponents were front loaded in the conference slate for Penn St. @ Michigan and @ Illinois is the toughest start any team had for the conference by far. PSU's big flaw is they struggle to find their run game at times v quality opponents. Everything else, including Morelli, has looked above average.
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#63
10-22-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
With Royster actually getting the ball now that Scott is off the team, they are better on the ground. Scott was good for 1 killer fumble [2 v ND] a game. Royster's got better speed and just not fumbling is a huge improvement, period.
@Ill they had 4 trips to red zone where they got 0 points and gave up a KO TD. If they do that v Ohio they will lose, but at home, at night, on Nat'l TV, I bet they are slightly more efficient. @Mich they got to the 12, 11, and 14, plus another Scott fumble in 3rd Q at the Mich 10. Total of 9 pts. Morelli fumbled at his 16 in the opening minutes which led to a TD. Again, if you think they will do that poorly at home, your choice is clear. Both games they outgained the opponent by 0.6 ypplay. Turnovers killed them. They gave up a combined 2 TDs in 22 drives that took more than 40 yards in those games. At home they beat top 20 Wisky by 31 points. Well, I just hope all the Ohio bettors push the spread up some more. +160 doesn't look bad either on the Lions.
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#65
10-23-2007, 02:06 AM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
What does everyone think about USF/UConn this week. It's already dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 even though the raw numbers (Sagarin-TO diff.) would suggest USF being favored by 9.
I'd imagine it has to do with last week's performance, but it's pretty questionable whether this is squares overreacting to one team's high-profile loss on national television or whether it's sharps correctly docking USF 6-7 points for a letdown after blowing their undefeated season. Kind of curious what the forum thinks on this one.
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#66
10-23-2007, 10:08 AM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just hope all the Ohio bettors push the spread up some more. +160 doesn't look bad either on the Lions. [/ QUOTE ] feeling as warmly towards you as i do, i did my part to get that line closer to +160 for you. [ QUOTE ] think about USF/UConn this week [/ QUOTE ] don't think about it. lest maybe they offer an o/u on the half. tlt
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#67
10-23-2007, 10:44 AM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
You forget Pat White didn't play in the 2nd half against SF, the game was at SF... [/ QUOTE ] forget it? i immensely enjoyed seeing him knocked out of the game by a defense that exposed wva's shortcoming on the O-line (for you bean-counters out there, that means, unable to get their runners to the second level). just as they did last year in morgantown. say, wasn't white under the care of a proctologist after that game? something about rectal tears? the keys to this matchup lie in Rutger's ability to handle a run game built on speed, not power; and wva's ability to stop rivers. stop rivers, and you stop rutgers. tlt.
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#68
10-23-2007, 10:49 AM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Nevertheless, they should do to Penn St. about what they did to Purdue, who is similarly crappy [/ QUOTE ] ROFL ROFL ROFL [/ QUOTE ] hey pirate, want me to book your bets? im guaranteed at least the vig, the way i figure it, and probably +2U this week alone. you're the only guy i have knowledge of, gets comps from off shore books. didn't the greek offer to pay your meals for a month or something? tlt
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#69
10-23-2007, 11:15 AM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
SI had an article on the dearth of NFL quality QB's this last issue. rather stupid that article: after voicing in loud huzzahs a need for the great black hope at the position, and insisting that black QB's be everywhere preferred to their white counterparts, the results are? no quality QB's in the NFL, and pretenders named after soy sauce pitching for whomever.
if you seriously think Oregon will beat USC by 2TD's (i.e. they're MUCH better)--that is, that Dixon is a quality QB--then bet Ore; for my part, i expect two picks, a fumble, and maybe one very skinny frame broken at three or four joints. hey, they're offering +130 on USC. who would ever have thunk it?
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#70
10-23-2007, 11:46 AM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I'm saying in my opinion it is a great play. After watching Penn St. against ND, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, I think they are weak and ready to be exposed against a good team. [/ QUOTE ] shhh!! hush up!! i'm fading these opinions, and you're jeopardizing my profit. besides, ask a bean counter to differentiate his a*ss from a hole in the ground and i swear to god, he'll give you an actual measure. swear to god. tlt.
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