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#61
10-26-2007, 02:56 AM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
[ QUOTE ]
In real life I folded H1 I'm not a predictable clown who posts every showdown he loses. [/ QUOTE ] Lean to a fold in hand 1 and am annoyed but relatively confident, in hand 2 I don't think I could fold. So you're an unpredictable clown? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] 
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#62
10-26-2007, 01:13 PM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card. [/ QUOTE ] alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds. [/ QUOTE ] what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty. [/ QUOTE ] People don't bluff with no fold equity. Especially nits.
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#64
10-26-2007, 01:37 PM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
I'm going to stop repeating myself after this, but I think everybody is underestimating how infrequently Villain needs to shove TT-QQ for a call to be right, which is one of the reasons I rarely like raise/folding when I've given myself 3 to 1 odds.
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#65
10-26-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card. [/ QUOTE ] alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds. [/ QUOTE ] what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty. [/ QUOTE ] People don't bluff with no fold equity. Especially nits. [/ QUOTE ] but he has FE. I don't see what you're saying here. You folded the 4th nuts and he never has AA so third nuts. How does this translate to no FE. I really disagree with this statement. Some people don't know when to give up.
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#66
10-26-2007, 03:03 PM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card. [/ QUOTE ] alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds. [/ QUOTE ] what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty. [/ QUOTE ] People don't bluff with no fold equity. Especially nits. [/ QUOTE ] but he has FE. I don't see what you're saying here. You folded the 4th nuts and he never has AA so third nuts. How does this translate to no FE. I really disagree with this statement. Some people don't know when to give up. [/ QUOTE ] So he assumes I am folding KK, let alone anything?
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#68
10-26-2007, 03:09 PM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
[ QUOTE ]
You're dead wrong here if you think he EVER takes this line as a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are thinking way too much in terms of absolutes. If he bluffs here like 5% of the time and value bets 95% of the time then it still matters. Especially because he could be vbetting worse 15% of that time. I know some people that I would try to push off of at least JJ+ with this line. You're saying thats suicide? Assume they are good players obviously.
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#69
10-26-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You're dead wrong here if you think he EVER takes this line as a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are thinking way too much in terms of absolutes. If he bluffs here like 5% of the time and value bets 95% of the time then it still matters. Especially because he could be vbetting worse 15% of that time. I know some people that I would try to push off of at least JJ+ with this line. You're saying thats suicide? Assume they are good players obviously. [/ QUOTE ] Yes its suicide. In fact, its closer to spew taking villains line with a bluff w/ the intention of having good players fold the top of their range.
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#70
10-26-2007, 04:49 PM
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Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions
ASPoker8, I'm interested what your opinion of villian is (other than stats), and what his veiw would be of you.
I find it hard to belive that someone with that Agg factor would make this move as a bluff, but I suppose it could be possible if you had a history of taking potts away from him. If he's a decent player and there's no specific history, I can't see him 3 betting anything we beat here.
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