My turn: MLB Overnight Betting

[dudeimstoked]

Wednesday MLB
San Francisco Giants +169
San Diego Padres -101 (2)
Cleveland Indians -133
Kansas City Royals +175

edit: wrong odds on KC

[TomG]

I've been following your picks with interest. I'm curious what metrics you find most useful when generating your offensive/defensive/pitching power ratings? If you don't feel comfortable sharing I understand, but I figured I'd ask.

[dudeimstoked]

Tuesday Results
3-5-0 (-0.65 units)

BAH we lose on the chalk and win on SF and Phi. I guess today could have been much worse.

Another thought, we killed the closing lines (especially on SD and SEA) but that doesnt matter when you dont win.

[dudeimstoked]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been following your picks with interest. I'm curious what metrics you find most useful when generating your offensive/defensive/pitching power ratings? If you don't feel comfortable sharing I understand, but I figured I'd ask.

[/ QUOTE ]

I first started with the Michael Murray system (same as your thread) which uses OBP and SLG of current and past year stats. when i did this, it took way too long for me to compile because i didnt want to use only current year stats. The process involved matching up player names and their stats for the prior 3 years then normalizing them by dividing by AB or IP. The major drawback to this was if a player was only in the league for one year or this was their first year, the stats were either grossly inflated/deflated.

My co-worker suggested PECOTA rankings so that is what i have been using primarily. The only drawback is it does not take into account stats from since baseball prospectus has updated it and there is no good and easy way to gauge bullpen statistics from PECOTA.

I use current year bullpen statistics, primarily the Fair_RA_Relief to determine bullpen ratings.

For the batting power ratings i use a combination of michael murray's OBPxSLG and EqA (a much more complete statistic).

For pitching ratings i use a blend of EqERA and xERA.
Good luck i hope this helps.

[dudeimstoked]

Ive also heard a lot about how FIP should be incorporated but i disagree. The way i see it is that the pitcher will always have its defense behind him so there is no reason to discount them.

[dudeimstoked]

Wednesday Results
2-2-0 (+1.42 units)

Decent day, SD gave us a scare in the 8th.

[dudeimstoked]

I thought i posted these here already, but i guess i only put them on my website until now.

Thursday MLB
San Francisco Giants +153
Cincinnati Reds +147 (1.5u)
Toronto Blue Jays +210

This system sure loves SF.

[dudeimstoked]

Added Plays for Thursday
St Louis Cardinals +170
Philadelphia Phillies/San Diego Padres OVER 7 +105 (.5)
Cleveland Indians/Texas Rangers UNDER 9.5 +100 (.5)

Chris Young is overrated. The public is hitting the UNDER on SD. Under 7 runs? Come on. Only a half unit right now. If the odds move more it will be worth another half unit.

[Card08]

You earlier stated that you are only putting up really promising overs. My main funded book has CLE UNDER 10 @ -115 rathter than UNDER 9.5 @ +100. I think it is somewhere between 9 and 11 cents for the jump from 9.5 to 10 runs (evens are worth far less). Should I still look this up as a play since your totals usually have a little extra cushion?

[dudeimstoked]

yea pretty much a min after i bet the under at 9.5 the line moved to 10. The majority of games will be won with a total of 9 so 9.5 and 10 are very similar. It is always nice to have the option of a push at 10, but i'm interested to see where the public will push both of these lines. Sabathia is a great pitcher and texas cant really hit so it will all be about how well the indians hit. i think the 10 at -115 should be a decent bet (half of a unit would be advised over a full unit).