Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[noseeds99]

naj,

is the bet still being offered or are you retracting it?

[Post-Oak]

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we can watch a Missou and Virginia slugfest for the Nat'l title.

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Virginia vs Hawaii would be the dream matchup.

[hedgie43]

Hawaii has played pretty much no one and still managed to not look very good. If they manage to get by UNR this week with a questionably healthy Brennan, they're going to have a very tough game against Boise St the next week. I'd love to see them win out, though, as that would mean I win my RSW totals on them and Boise St.

[Post-Oak]

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Hawaii has played pretty much no one and still managed to not look very good. If they manage to get by UNR this week with a questionably healthy Brennan, they're going to have a very tough game against Boise St the next week. I'd love to see them win out, though, as that would mean I win my RSW totals on them and Boise St.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just joking. I don't even expect Hawaii to win out. Even if they do go 12-0, they probably won't make the title game.

It is POSSIBLE though, which was what me and Naj are joking about. This is one of those years where you want two teams to step up and really deserve it. Everyone keeps [censored] the bed though.

[iggymcfly]

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ASU doesn't have to pass all 3 Big XII teams, just two of them and it looks like they will. If they beat USC 20-17 or something, I don't think they can pass WVU or OSU, but I think a blowout gives them a great shot. Also, West Virginia and Ohio State both have very tough games this week. I think the Mountaineers are a way bigger favorite than they should be against Cincy and could easily pick up their second loss this Saturday. Of course, this is all moot if LSU finishes 12-1.

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OK, let's say that they pass 2 Big 12 teams. That means they have to pass LSU, WVU and Ohio State. Otherwise, they can't make the title game.

To do that, all of those teams need to lose in addition to Az State winning out.

Using my estimates...

1. Chance LSU loses 52%
2. Chance WVU loses 47%
3. Chance Ohio State loses 38%
4. Chance Az State wins out 31%

You see the problem here?

Of course, it is possible that all 3 of those Big 12 teams blow it, but I am not even gonna open that can of worms.

[/ QUOTE ]

My whole point in the bolded section is that it's not likely that Ohio State and West Virginia both lose, so ASU would probably have to blow out USC to pass them in the polls. Obviously, close wins won't get it done without a lot of luck.

BTW, Naj, I don't think ASU has any realistic chance of getting in over Missouri if both are 12-1. Mizzou may be low in the computer rankings now, but playing two Top 3 opponents in the last two weeks will give them a huge jump. They should pass Arizona State in most of the computer rankings if not all and could pass LSU in several to move to #1.

As for the polls, do you really think an Arizona State team currently ranked 2 spots behind Mizzou is going to pass them on the same week that Mizzou team beats #2 Kansas just because they beat USC? They'd have to win by 40 to even have a shot there and even if they did jump them, they'd just fall back when Mizzou beat #2 Oklahoma the next week.

The only way I could see 12-1 Mizzou getting left out for ASU is if Kansas loses to Iowa State, Oklahoma loses to TTU or OSU, and ASU blows out USC by 30+. Short of that, it's not happening.

[Post-Oak]

OK, the picture is a little clearer now, but the oddsmakers still appear totally clueless.



LSU

LSU will make the BCS title game if they win out. Here's their remaining schedule:

Arkansas -12 78.8%
vs SEC East Champ (Atlanta, GA)

In the SEC Championship game, they will either be playing Georgia or Tennessee. That all depends on whether Tennessee wins or loses at Kentucky this week.

Tennessee is +2.5, and has a 42.4% chance to win (according to Pinnacle's moneylines). So there is a 57.6% chance they have to play Georgia, and a 42.4% they will play Tenn.

Here's the lines I have come up with for these games (Georgia has been given a bit of a HFA because the game is in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta).

vs Tenn (-8) (73%)
vs Georgia (-1) (51.5%)

The weighted average would be 60.6%

Arkansas -12 78.8%
vs SEC East Champ (Atlanta, GA) (60.6%)

That means they are 48% to win out. This means that even if they were 75% to win the BCS title game (they are not), they would still only have a 36% chance to win the title. Amazingly, you can bet against them at -136 and -138 at Matchbook and WSEX.

The guy who sets the lines on WSEX is completely clueless. He once again opened LSU as -117 favorites (+104 to short!) early Sunday morning. It has since been bet down to +117/-138, and people on Matchbook (+120/-136) just copy WSEX.



Kansas

Kansas will also make the title game if they win out. Here's their remaining schedule. The game against Missouri is in Kansas City (Arrowhead Stadium).

vs Missouri (KC, Missouri) -2 55.2%
vs Big 12 South Champ (San Antonio, TX)

The tie breakers for the Big 12 South could get fairly complex, but I am just gonna give a simplified version.
In order to win the Big 12 South, Texas would have to win at Texas A&M (66.4%) and have Oklahoma lose at home to Oklahoma State (20.4%). So there's a 13.5% chance they make it, and 86.5% chance Oklahoma does.

I'll try and handicap these games:

vs Texas (-8) (73.0%)
vs Oklahoma (-3) (59.0%)

We get a weighted average of 60.9%.

vs Missouri (KC, Missouri) -2 55.2%
vs Big 12 South Champ (San Antonio, TX) (60.9%)

We get a 33.6% chance for them to make the BCS title game.



WVU

The situation with West Virginia is a little less clear. They are now ranked #3, but it's probable that Missouri could pass them if Missouri wins out.

Anyway, WVU has an "easy" schedule left:

Conn -17 87.3%
Pitt -24.5 (93%)

That's an 81.2% chance to win out. If we assume that Missouri can not pass an 11-1 WVU, then this is how WVU can make it to the BCS title game:

1. Kansas loses 66.4% OR LSU loses 52% (83.9%)
2. WVU wins out 81.2%

We get a 68.1% chance for them to make the title game.

If we assume that a 12-1 Missouri team WILL pass a 11-1 WVU team (and this seems to be the better assumption), then this is how WVU makes the title game:

1. Kansas/Missouri winner loses 42.5% OR LSU loses 52% (72.4%)
2. WVU wins out 81.2%

This still give WVU a 58.8% chance to make the title game. WSEX opened WVU at +733 on Sunday morning (big mistake). They still have them as +488. This means they would have to win the title 17% of the time, so obviously the line is still +EV.



Missouri

vs Kansas (KC, Missouri) +2 44.8%
vs Big 12 South Champ

vs Oklahoma (-1) (51.0%)
vs Texas (-6) (67.5%)

The weighted average is 53.2%.

vs Kansas (KC, Missouri) +2 44.8%
vs Big 12 South Champ (53.2%)

This would make them 23.8% to win out.



Ohio St

In order to make the title game, Ohio State needs to pass 3 out of these 4 teams: LSU, WVU, Kansas, and Missouri.

Chance to lose:

LSU 52%
WVU 18.8%
Missouri/Kansas winner 42.5%

Ohio State needs 2 out of 3 of these to happen (or all 3). There is a 31.5% chance of this happening. WSEX inexplicably opened this line as +1900, and it is still +1328. This is still +EV.



Arizona St

Arizona State probably needs all 3 of these teams to lose. There is only a 4.2% of this happening. It is possible they could leapfrog one of those teams if they win out, but I really think that the chance of an 11-1 Az St passing an 11-1 WVU or 11-1 Missouri is basically zero. There is no chance they pass a 13-0 Kansas or 12-1 LSU.



I'll try to handicap various BCS title matchups (remember the game is in New Orleans, LA):

13-0 Kansas vs 12-1 LSU -3
12-1 Missouri vs 12-1 LSU -5
11-1 WVU vs 12-1 LSU -3
11-1 Ohio State vs 12-1 LSU -4

That is how I cap the games, but the lines will probably be shaded towards the favorite. The BCS title game often has a very weak line (like the Super Bowl), because so many squares come out of the woodwork to bet on it. I think they will tend to be on LSU. I could easily see the Ohio State spread being -7.5.

[KUJustin]

iggy, I like the analysis except I'd be surprised if we're 3 pt favorites against OU or even 8 pts against Texas.

Also, couldn't LSU get in with 2 losses?

[Post-Oak]

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Also, couldn't LSU get in with 2 losses?

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It's possible, but the chance is so small that I have ignored it.

Look at it this way... Ohio State is 11-1 with no games remaining. An 11-2 LSU is not gonna pass them. WVU is over 80% to win out. That right there makes it unlikely that a 2 loss team can make it. When you factor in the Big 12 teams, Az St and Georgia, it becomes extremely unlikely.

If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, then LSU in the SEC title game, is LSU gonna be ranked ahead of them? No.

It's certainly possible that a 2 loss LSU could make it; just extremely unlikely. And a 2 loss LSU would probably lose it's status as a favorite in the title game.

Edit to add: Actually, I can't see a 2 loss LSU playing anyone other than Ohio St in the title game. I guess they would still be a favorite. Ohio State doesn't seem to be getting a lot of respect.

[Post-Oak]

Another bet I like is Georgia +400 to win the SEC on Sportsbook.

They have a 57.6% to play in the SEC title game (assuming Pinnacle's moneylines are efficient). Their opponent will be LSU. The game is in Atlanta, Georgia.

If you expect them to beat LSU greater than 35% (a good assumption IMO), then this bet is +EV.

[MicroBob]

Would LSU really be only -1 vs. GA?