God I hate AQ

[Dave D]

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Stumpy,

I'm too lazy/don't have time to go through your math, but I assume you fold to a river bet as well if you call flop and turn goes check-check?

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I would definitely bet the river if checked to twice.
I also claimed I'd bet the turn if he checked a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to me.
I don't entirely know what to do on the river. We only have to be ahead 25% of the time to call.

The numbers I gave were based on folding to a turn bet, and assuming we at least broke even on any river action. The math is mostly an attempt to look at a simple general result for a hand range and action. It's obviously only as good as the assumptions. I don't play enough to be very confident in my player generalizations. The obvious problem is some players do this with only AA, and others would with TT+,AK, and a rare few think this is a cool move. I've certainly seen people doing it with TT+,AK in $10 tournaments more than once.

I pretty much use myself (hopefully usually my earlier self) as the moron model.
Maybe everyone does, and we're just posting which way we'd have butchered this hand.
But based on that I tend to characterize unknowns as moderately aggressive by default.
I see a C-Bet as nearly automatic with his full range. Other people deeply disagree.

C-Betting here is pretty ugly when you really look at it, but it is very hard to not continue when you've finally gotten a hand like QQ or KK. Particularly when you look at it from the standpoint of the player who thinks QQ+ are such strong hands that you shold make this stupid PFRR to suck in your opponents.

Being as short as we are, he needs to keep betting with QQ-KK 50% of the time to make calling a turn bet good.
I'm really unsure if that's reasonable or not. I think it's close.

Again, using myself as the idiot, with the given 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn, I would now be inclined to call, because any pair with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is likely to try and push you out. We've got two big non spades, so more than half his range is spades.

If calling a turn bet is borderline, I'd say calling the river is less so.

I know none of that answers anything.

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I agree with pretty much everything in this post, it sumarizes my feelings on the situation pretty well. ESPECIALLY the part about villians C-betting. That's what I was trying to say with my earlier posts about people doing extra dumb things late tourney.

I also really like the villian's mindset about why he minraised PF.

[Tackleberry]

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Tackleberry,

You're butchering my beautiful math. You can't just divide by 4. [...]

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Yes, you´re perfectly right! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Sorry for that ... Nevertheless I don´t think that my assumptions were that far off - I fully agree with Sherman that QQ/KK for example wouldn´t c-bet this flop after this action, which means that Villain could probably min-raise it pf, but the combination min-raise pf + lead this flop seems to be very unlikely to me ... but we go round in circles here. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Which doesn´t matter - this discussion is beneficial anyway ...

[Thegunshow]

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If you add any JJ/TT, it's a bit more in your favor. (More JJ combos, JJ more likely to min RR.)


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Mostly skimmed the thread but couldn't get past this. Who the hell min RR with JJ after and UTG+1 open raise and call? Seems like suicide to me.

Also, the call of the RR preflop may be correct in terms of pot odds, but we are putting another 8% of our stack in while OOP with a hand that is likely dominated. Plus it is gonna cost us a ton of chips after the flop(unless we nail it) to find out where we are. I gotta agree with the fold preflop guys.

[Stumpy]

GunShow,

Who the hell does it with AK, QQ, KK or AA? It's all moronic.

If 4k is 8% of our stack, how can anything cost us "A Ton" on the flop?

Edit: Also, notice I said it was better if he was tighter OR narrower than QQ+,AK.

[levAA]

by the time we call the reraise preflop the pot is grown to 27k, we and villain 2 calling - making it 35k.

if we plan to call a c-bet it will be about 17-18k - this is a ton if our stack at the start of this hand was 60k.

the mini-reraise is moronic - i agree here, but preflop we are with AQo against 2 hands that both might beat us in a pot that comes to a size where we will likely have to commit our whole stack, with (in this case) a mediocre holding.

btw i would really love to call the reraise preflop with some low suited connectors or even a medium or small PP, but i still think AQo is a fold.

[Stumpy]

Sherman,
A ton of people bet this flop with KK.
There are a lot of good players out there.
None of them min raise in this spot.


Below are some cases for a range of KK+, showing how much you win depending on his play style.
The short answer is, if his range is KK+, there is no flop action he can take that makes calling bad.
You win chips against any strategy as long as you don't fold when you flop an Ace.


Weak/Tight Case:
He check/folds when an A flops.
You fold unless you flop an Ace. (You have 50k behind on the flop.)
AA (1): 0.9375*(-4k) + 0.0625*(-54k) = -7.125k
KK (6): 0.82*(-4k) + 0.18*(30.25k) = 2.165k
(6*2.165k - 7.125k)/7 = +838 chips.


Normal / Aggressive Case:
He bets the flop with anything, check/folds turn with KK.
Assume the 18k cont bet in OP.
There is a 2/45 = 4.44% chance a K turns. You go broke here.
AA (1): -7.125k
KK (6): 0.82*(-4k) + 0.18*(0.0444*(-54k) + 0.9556*(+48.25k)) = +4.59k
Average = +2.9k


Very Aggressive Case:
He puts all his (your) chips in every time.
There is an 8.8% chance a K turns or rivers.
AA (1): -7.125k
KK (6): 0.82*(-4k) + 0.18*(0.088*(-54k) + 0.912*(+80.25k)) = +9k
Average = +6.7k


The more he bets with KK, the more you make.
But you're never losing money if his range is KK+.

Some QQ in his range makes things better. I believe QQ goes in before AK.
AK makes things worse.

If you say he min-raises AA always, KK, 50%, and he's the weak/tight case,
Then calling is -158 chips.

Stumpy

[Stumpy]

LevAA,
Getting 7:1 preflop, I would assume you could call with 76s. I'm not positive though.
It's a lot harder to figure out all the cases where 76s has good equity on the flop.


I didn't include the other player in the numbers above.

Obviously he can be an idiot too, but what hand better than AQ did he flat call with twice?
Given that you're folding unless you flop an A, he needs two pair+ to cause you any problems.


If he has a pocket pair JJ-:
He'll flop a set 12.75% of the time.

That hurts our equity only when we flop an A.
So, in the Weak/Tight case:
Say we bet 18k when checked to, and fold to a shove from MP2:
KK (6): 0.82*(-4k) + 0.18*(0.1275*(-22k) + (0.8725)*30.25k) = 0.957k
(6*0.957k - 7.125k)/7 = -190 chips.

We make a lot more in the other cases I list, so we'd still be ahead there.
There have to be some flops where he'd pay us off a little too, which will nudge that -190 up a little.

[Sherman]

Stumpy,

Thanks again for all your hard work on this thread. So the better our opponent is, the closer this becomes but it still looks like it is at the very least slightly +EV.

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A ton of people bet this flop with KK.
There are a lot of good players out there.
None of them min raise in this spot.

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This is an excellent point.

Anyhow, now I am wondering how much villain would have had to raise to make calling -EV? LOL.

Sherman

[Stumpy]

The bigger raise is a negative basically just when you don't flop an A.

All other cases you either put your money in anyway or get it back.

An ace hits 16.3% of the time, so for the worst case,
838/(1-0.163) = 1K.

I think he tends more to the middle cases, but 12k would probably do it.

[Sherman]

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The bigger raise is a negative basically just when you don't flop an A.

All other cases you either put your money in anyway or get it back.

An ace hits 16.3% of the time, so for the worst case,
838/(1-0.163) = 1K.

I think he tends more to the middle cases, but 12k would probably do it.

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Ok. Damn this is a really close spot. Thanks again stumpy.