Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

[curtains]

Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[Rduke55]

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Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. C'mon fellas, we've all said our piece.

[Exitonly]

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Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed..
now i'm going to speculate on who the experts are (and if they've been mentioned already.. well i didnt read it, so ignore this)

MLG, Strassa, sirio... annnnnnnd TTIU.

[Sluss]

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Don't mean to keep this going and going, or make it seem like i have a vendetta against you..

[/ QUOTE ] Nope I like the back and forth

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but if you had 89c (or 67 or 78) wouldn't you bet there? everyone has shown weakness and it's a scare card, and one that helps you out... then when raised.. you would think it over, but look at the 3:1 oddds and decide that your 30% equity here is good enough.

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I would have taken my shot on the flop. But , the turn is possible. There is no way though I'm calling that raise. All of my possible outs are trouble. I couldn't believe that I had 30% in this pot with that board.

[Exitonly]

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I couldn't believe that I had 30% in this pot with that board.

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from CO's point of view, the range we could have here is:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> 2,552 games 0.005 secs 510,400 games/sec

Board: Ts 9h 3c Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.7806 % 29.78% 00.00% { 9s8s }
Hand 2: 70.2194 % 70.22% 00.00% { TT-99, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, KJs+, QTs+, AQo, KJo+, QTo }
</pre><hr />

i used spades by mistake, and that 3x might have been somethign else, but the values should be the same.

[bruce]

If we check we are virtually giving up on the hand. I believe the best play is to push the river. We have enough chips remaining on the river to make villian lay down a better hand than ours. If the villian has a set or straight well so be it.
But the only way we can win is if we bet. We will feel pretty stupid if the villian turnsover a hand like 89c which he would have folded had we pushed. Obviously a river push is risky and we are in danger of getting our walking papers, but I think a bluff will work a large enough percentage of the time to make it a profitable play long term. By pushing we are putting the villian in a tough spot and who knows how we will act to the pressure. Mayber he'll make a big mistake and fold a hand which he should have called if he starts thinking too much. I like a push the more and more I think about it.

Bruce

[Sluss]

I know the math, I'm just uncomfortable believing I am best in this spot if a J or club hits on the river and would be real happy about calling the sure push from the button who could very easily have the better draw.

[FishInAPhoneBooth]

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i don't know if i'd actually have the stones to do this, but i'd push. if villain had a hand that he was comfortable going to the felt with, he reraises the turn with all the draws on board. i think he's got something like JT or AT that can't call a big bet. if he's got 99, god bless 'em.

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I concur, what hand could he have that wouldn't require him popping us on the turn?

[Rduke55]

Is everyone dead? Lloyd? Sossman? Where's the finale?
Waaaaay to long here.
I thought this all was great except for the length of time.

[SossMan]

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Is everyone dead? Lloyd? Sossman? Where's the finale?
Waaaaay to long here.
I thought this all was great except for the length of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm waiting on Lloyd.